SCHWARZ SCHILD (1) is the top pick despite finishing tenth at Tokyo Dirt last start, with the return to 1200m a strong counterpoint to that plain 1400m effort. He has won at this track, has a win and two placings from five starts around this distance, and his record with Miku Kobayashi reads well enough to trust the rebound. AMERICAN BEYOND (10) resumes off the strongest last-start result among the main hopes, having been beaten a neck at Chukyo Dirt when well found in betting, and his prior Kokura Dirt run showed he could close off over the sharper 1000m. NOBLE COURONNE (9) has been more consistent than her finishing positions suggest, closing nicely when beaten just over three lengths at both Tokyo and Niigata, though 1200m remains the question she has to answer. PAVIA (2) is second-up after a fair Chukyo Dirt return and brings some underlying class, but the first attempt around 1200m means she looks more a place player than a runner to lean on heavily for the win.