Portugal and Croatia lock horns in the Round of 32 at BMO Field in Toronto, and this one has all the makings of a proper knockout classic.

Two sides packed with experience, led by ageing superstars who refuse to quit, going head-to-head with a quarter-final spot on the line.

Portugal finished second in their group with four points, grinding out a draw against DR Congo before looking utterly devastating in a 5-0 demolition of Uzbekistan, then holding Colombia to a goalless draw.

Roberto Martínez’s side conceded just once across three matches, and that defensive steel will be crucial from here on out.

Croatia, under Zlatko Dalić, also came through as group runners-up with six points, but their path was far bumpier. A 4-2 thumping by England on Matchday 1 exposed real defensive frailties, and while they steadied the ship with wins over Panama and Ghana, those cracks at the back haven’t fully healed. Conceding five goals in the group stage is a stat that should worry Croatian fans heading into a knockout match against this calibre of opposition.

Portugal’s head-to-head record is dominant here. Six wins, two draws and just one loss across nine meetings.

The recent form has been tight: Croatia won 2-1 in June 2024, but Portugal won the return fixture 2-1 in September 2024 when Cristiano Ronaldo scored his 900th career goal. History is firmly on the Portuguese side.

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Portugal vs Croatia prediction

Portugal are our pick to get the job done here in regulation time. The quality gap in this squad is real, and as our Portugal vs Croatia betting odds page shows, the favourites are well backed for good reason.

Beyond Cristiano Ronaldo, Martínez can call on Bruno Fernandes pulling the strings, Rafael Leão terrorising defenders with pace, and Bernardo Silva linking play through the lines.

Croatia’s reliance on a 40-year-old Luka Modrić and a Joško Gvardiol who has returned from a tibial fracture suffered in January makes them vulnerable, particularly against Portugal’s movement in the final third.

We also like the under 2.5 goals in this one. Knockout football typically produces tighter affairs, and Croatia themselves ground out a 1-0 win at this very venue against Panama.

Tournament football at this stage tends to tighten things up, and Martínez has shown plenty of pragmatism in knockout rounds when the stakes are highest.

Portugal’s one-goal-conceded defensive record suggests they’ll be happy to score first and sit on it, while Croatia will be cautious about overcommitting after the England debacle. A 1-0 or 2-0 Portuguese win feels like the sweet spot.

If you fancy stringing this clash together with a few other ties, it's worth brushing up on how a multi bet works first, and our World Cup betting markets guide breaks down the options before you back either side.

Portugal vs Croatia team news and line-ups

Predicted Portugal line-up (4-2-3-1): Diogo Costa, João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes, Rúben Neves, Vitinha, Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, João Félix, Cristiano Ronaldo.

Roberto Martinez can call on serious depth, with players from PSG and a frontline overflowing with attacking options to break down Croatia.

Predicted Croatia line-up (4-3-3): Dominik Livaković, Josip Stanisic, Josip Šutalo, Marin Pongracic, Ivan Perišić, Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić, Nikola Vlašić, Petar Sučić, Martin Baturina, Ante Budimir.

The side leans on their experienced central trio to control the tempo, with the attacking threat fairly concentrated and reliant on midfield service.

Player markets to watch

Our pick: Cristiano Ronaldo to score anytime.

The man bagged a brace against Uzbekistan and had chances in every group match, playing all 270 minutes.

At 41, he’s still Portugal’s focal point and Martínez has shown zero interest in taking him off the park. Croatia’s centre-back pairing looked shaky aerially and positionally against England, which plays right into Ronaldo’s hands.

Set pieces alone give him a genuine chance to find the net, and knockout football has always been his stage.

Our pick: Bruno Fernandes to register an assist.

Fernandes was the creative engine throughout the group stage, providing the assist for Ronaldo’s second goal against Uzbekistan and consistently finding dangerous pockets of space.

Against a Croatian midfield that will be focused on controlling possession through Modrić, Fernandes can exploit the channels with his range of passing. If Portugal score, there’s a strong chance his fingerprints are on the goal.

Our pick: Rafael Leão to have a shot on target.

Leão scored Portugal’s fifth against Uzbekistan and has been their most direct attacking outlet in transition.

His pace is a nightmare for any defence, and with Gvardiol having only recently returned from injury, Leão running at the Croatian backline on the counter is a mismatch waiting to happen. He should get at least one clean look at goal.

Portugal vs Croatia Match Details

Date: Friday, July 3, 2026.

Kick-off: 1:00pm AEST.

Location: BMO Field, Toronto.

Where to watch: Sportsbet, SBS.

Where to Watch Portugal vs Croatia

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