Round 23 of the AFL season delivers a Saturday fixture that we could probably go without. While Saints are mathematically still alive, their season has but a whisper of a heartbeat.   

St Kilda sits at 9-12 for the season, eight points outside a wildcard spot, with two rounds to go. You do the math.

To sneak in, the Saints need to win both and rely on Carlton dropping their final two home-and-away matches. Which is a plausible scenario; Carlton faces some tough matchups on the run home against the Dogs, then Freo.

However, factoring in the injuries to Saints’ key players including NWM, it does feel like a pipe dream for St Kilda fans.

The injuries didn’t stop with Nasiah either, Mason Wood was also ruled out for the remainder of the season with a calf strain, while Tom De Koning and Liam Ryan both underwent scans on shoulder injuries and will need to prove their fitness this week. The Blues won 106-62.

The Tigers, meanwhile, were far better than the scoreboard suggested. Richmond led Adelaide by 13 points in the third quarter at a soaked Adelaide Oval before the Crows steadied to win 63-54.

That followed a Round 21 win over West Coast that snapped an eight-match losing run. Adem Yze's side sits at 3-18 with a bottom-two finish locked in.

Even this depleted Saints side should be too strong for the Tigers; but Richmond will be looking forward to what could be next year, whereas Saints will be looking back at what could’ve been in 2026.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Round 23 prediction and preview below.

Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Match Predictions and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

Let's not oversell this one. Both seasons are effectively finished, the stakes are close to non-existent, and the value here sits in the markets rather than the ladder.

Richmond's year was gone by February, when injuries tore through a young list and the season started in awful fashion. The win over West Coast a fortnight ago was needed, but the wolves will be at the door in 2027.

For the Saints, Sunday night went from bad to worse to nightmare fuel. Losing Wanganeen-Milera to a hamstring in the opening minutes, then watching the Blues tear up their wildcard hopes, was about as grim as a fortnight-out finals push gets.

At 9-12, the Saints don't really deserve to be in finals calculations anyway.

But the gap between these lists is still substantial, even with St Kilda's medical room overflowing.

The Saints have won eight of the past nine meetings and beat Richmond by 36 points earlier this season and Rowan Marshall, Max Hall and a settled defence should still be too much for a Tigers outfit missing eight players for the season.

Head-to-head prediction: St Kilda by 38 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

This one comes with low confidence attached, but Jack Higgins is worth a look.

The small forward remains one of the leading smalls in the competition, and with Wanganeen-Milera and Wood out of the side, he becomes even more central to how a depleted St Kilda forward line generates points.

The MCG's wide expanses suit a forward who works to space rather than one who relies on an aerial contest.

If the Saints get early entries going their way, Higgins is a genuine chance to find the opener.

Betting tip: Jack Higgins.

Most Disposals Prediction

Bradley Hill has been strong from the back half for Saint; collecting 31, 28, 34, 24 and 39 in the last five weeks. With the injury toll as it is, St Kilda will be relying on his distribution out of trouble even more than usual.

Expect Bradley Hill’s increased contribution to see him top the disposal count in this one.

Betting tip: Bradley Hill.

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Tim Taranto 25+ disposals, Jack Higgins 2+ goals, St Kilda to win by 1-39 points, Under 167.5 total match points.

Odds are subject to change. *

Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Predicted Teams

Richmond Tigers Predicted Team List

FB: Nick Vlastuin, Ben Miller, Kye Annand

HB: Nathan Broad, Sam Banks, Tom Brown

C: Tyler Sonsie, Tim Taranto, Patrick Retschko

HF: Seth Campbell, Dion Prestia, Hugo Ralphsmith

FF: Taj Hotton, Tom Lynch, Mykelti Lefau

FOLL: Toby Nankervis, Jack Ross, Sam Lalor

I/C: Jayden Short, Sam Grlj, Judson Clarke, Steely Green, Samson Ryan

St Kilda Predicted Team List

FB: Jack Silvagni, Callum Wilkie, Liam O'Connell

HB: Bradley Hill, Marcus Windhager, Liam Stocker

C: Darcy Wilson, Max Hall, Hugh Boxshall

HF: Jack Higgins, Mattaes Phillipou, Dan Butler

FF: Cooper Sharman, Rowan Marshall, Anthony Caminiti

FOLL: Tom De Koning, Hugo Garcia, Mitch Owens

I/C: Hunter Clark, Ryan Byrnes, Jack Macrae, Liam Ryan, Campbell Lake

Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda Match Details

Date: Saturday, August 15, 2026

First Bounce: 12:35pm AEST

Location: MCG, Melbourne

How to Watch: Fox Footy/Kayo Sports