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Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction - Round 23 2026

12/08/2026|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions

Round 23 of the AFL season opens with a top five banger of a Friday night fixture as Fremantle host Adelaide in the West at Optus Stadium.

With a win, Freo will claim a second minor premiership in their club’s history, we think a fitting reward as they’ve consistently been the best side all season.  

The Crows will be looking to upset the Dockers; a win for Adelaide means a guaranteed top six finish and presses their claim towards a top four finish and a qualifying finals berth.

The Dockers arrive after just their third loss of the season, a tightly contested 113-109 thriller against the Dees at the MCG. Luke Jackson was superb against his old side, but the Demons found a way to blunt Murphy Reid and Andrew Brayshaw never really got going.

Justin Longmuir's men are already guaranteed a home qualifying final, so the motivation here is less about safety and more about momentum. Nobody wants to limp into September and Freo will be keen to walk off their own deck feeling like a premiership side again.

Adelaide, meanwhile, got the four points but hardly got the applause. The Crows scrapped past a stubborn Richmond 63-54 at home, with Izak Rankine almost single-handedly dragging them over the line courtesy of a career-high 36 disposals, 11 clearances and a goal.

That win keeps Matthew Nicks' side four points clear of the Wildcard Finals Round, though they've now slipped behind fourth-placed Brisbane by 0.2 per cent. Every bit of percentage matters from here.

Add in a bit of history and this one gets even better. Fremantle edged the Crows 78-76 in a thriller back in Round 4, so there's a score to settle for the visitors.

Throw in the Dockers' Retro Round jumpers and a packed Optus and Friday night has all the makings of an instant classic.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows Round 23 prediction and preview below.

 

Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

Look at the ledger and Adelaide won while Fremantle lost, but the eye test tells a very different story.

The Crows only just fell against Richmond on their own turf, while the Dockers were rock solid in a genuine classic at the 'G and still walked away empty-handed.

A response feels inevitable here, particularly with Alex Pearce back in the fold. In fact, apologies to Demons fans, but we'd argue Freo win last week if Pearce is in the 23.

Adelaide's problems are the same ones that haunted them in 2025. Ball movement is laboured, there's a lack of class with ball in hand, and the creativity dries up whenever they need to launch something from the back half.

Wayne Milera's absence has only magnified all of it.

If Fremantle get busy around the contest, the Crows will spend the night banging their heads against a very well-organised Docker defence.

Head-to-head prediction: Fremantle Dockers by 21 points.

 

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Jye Amiss for us, all day.

The big man booted five in a losing side against Melbourne and has been firing all season without the slightest hint of a drop-off heading into finals.

Freo go to him early and often and on a Friday night at Optus with the crowd up and about, he's the most likely man to raise the first pair of flags.

Betting tip: Jye Amiss.

 

Most Disposals Prediction

No Docker has racked up more than 30 disposals in the last five weeks. Not Murphy Reid, not Caleb Serong, not Andrew Brayshaw.

Fremantle spread the distribution around beautifully, which is so effective in their seamlessly skilful offensive game.

For this market though, that points us straight to the Crows, even if they end up second best on the scoreboard.

Jordan Dawson is the man, fresh off a 35-disposal outing last week.

Betting tip: Jordan Dawson.

 

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Murphy Reid OVER disposal line of 21.5, Luke Jackson 21+ disposals, Izak Rankine anytime goal scorer, Jye Amiss 3+ goals, Fremantle to win 1-39.

 

Odds are subject to change.*

 

Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows Predicted Teams

 

Fremantle Dockers Predicted Team List

FB: Heath Chapman, Alex Pearce, Oscar McDonald

HB: Karl Worner, Luke Ryan, Jordan Clark

C: Michael Frederick, Andrew Brayshaw, Matthew Johnson

HF: Sam Switkowski, Isaiah Dudley, Murphy Reid

FF: Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss, Patrick Voss

FOLL: Luke Jackson, Caleb Serong, Shai Bolton

I/C: Mason Cox, Hayden Young, Neil Erasmus, Nathan O'Driscoll, Judd McVee

 

Adelaide Crows Predicted Team List

FB: Rory Laird, Josh Worrell, Max Michalanney

HB: Isaac Cumming, Mark Keane, Callum Ah Chee

C: James Peatling, Jordan Dawson, Brayden Cook

HF: Alex Neal-Bullen, Riley Thilthorpe, Josh Rachele

FF: Hugo Hall-Kahan, Taylor Walker, Zac Taylor

FOLL: Reilly O'Brien, Izak Rankine, Daniel Curtin

I/C: Archie Ludowyke, Ben Keays, Billy Dowling, Sam Berry, Oscar Ryan

 

Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows Match Details

 

Date: Friday, August 14, 2026

First Bounce: 8:10pm AEST (6:10pm AWST)

Location: Optus Stadium, Perth

How to Watch: Channel 7, Fox Footy/Kayo Sports

Fremantle(-17.5)
Adelaide Crows(+17.5)

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