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AFL Tips and Predictions - Round 23 2026

10/08/2026|Josh Jenkins|AFL Tips & Predictions

Round 22 was once the last weekend of footy before we got down to business.

These days, we still have a fortnight to go and what a crucial fortnight it will be.

AFLW takes over Thursday night footy so the round gets going with Freo and Adelaide on Friday night, a true clash between 2026 contenders.

Last week was more modest than the previous two weeks but we still had some luck with Luke Parker's 26 disposals, Jai Newcombe going under 25.5 thanks to Josh Dunkley's attention and Sydney going big against Port Adelaide.

Onto Round 23.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our expert AFL tips and predictions for Round 23 below.

 

Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows

Friday, August 14, 8:10 pm AEST - Optus Stadium, Perth

 

Adelaide won and Freo lost but you could be forgiven for thinking the opposite given the Crows only fell in against Richmond on home soil whilst the Dockers were beaten despite being rock solid in an epic at The 'G against the Dees.

Here, a response from Freo will be expected especially with Alex Pearce back into the line up. In fact, sorry Dees fans, but I'd suggest Freo win last week with Pearce in the 23.

Adelaide's woes remain from 2025.

A lack of ball movement, a lack of class with ball in hand and a lack of creativity when they need to launch ball chains from the back end.

In Wayne Milera's absence, the issue has only been heightened.

Should Freo get busy around the ball the Crows will be having headaches trying to cut through the Docker D.

Head-to-head prediction: Fremantle Dockers by 21 points.

Betting tip: Luke Jackson 21+ disposals.

 

Richmond Tigers vs St Kilda

Saturday, August 15, 12:35 pm AEST - MCG, Melbourne

 

Both seasons look gone here.

Richmond was gone, perhaps in February when injuries battered the kids and the season began in awful fashion. The win a fortnight ago over West Coast was needed. But the wolves will be at the door in 2027.

For the Saints, the evening went from bad to worse to nightmare fuel when Nasiah the Messiah ripped a hammy and the Blues tore up the Saints' Wildcard hopes.

At 9-12, the Saints do not deserve to be in finals calculations anyway.

Head-to-head prediction: St Kilda by 38 points.

Betting tip: Max Hall 28+ disposals.

 

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Geelong Cats

Saturday, August 15, 3:45 pm AEST - Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

 

The Kangas finally broke through for a victory over a classier team.

The glass half empty view is the team they beat - Western Bulldogs - are hardly a contender and may not even make the Wildcard themselves.

For Geelong, a wild and dramatic week was ended with an easy win over Essendon. This looms as a slippery proposition with the in-form Roos under the roof at Docklands.

Bailey Smith chalked up 38 last week and Ollie Dempsey was outstanding working forward from a wing with four goals from 19 touches. The odd-coloured boots served him well.

Oisin Mullin will go to Luke Davies-Uniacke, meaning he needs to work his way through it or Sheezel, Wardlaw and O'Sullivan need to pick up the slack.

Tristan Xerri also gets a real opportunity to impact the game against a mix of Edwards, SDK and Blicavs.

Head-to-head prediction: Geelong Cats by 8 points.

Betting tip: North Melbourne Kangaroos +23.5.

 

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns

Saturday, August 15, 4:15 pm AEST - The Gabba, Brisbane

 

Can we stop doubting the Lions now?

Off a horror show against Carlton, the B2B champs went whack against Hawthorn and reminded any doubters that this season still runs through Brissy.

Kai Lohmann is making a charge toward an AA blazer reaching 46 goals on the season. Logan Morris will likely surpass 50 whilst Charles Cameron has 40+ as well.

The Suns snapped a losing streak for the ages in Canberra. And it was one some expected them to tap out in with wintry conditions facing them in the Nation's Capital.

In Round 20 last season, Gold Coast smacked Brisbane sideways before the Lions returned serve in the semi-final and ended little brother's season.

With a place in the four on the line, you'd expect to see these Lions do what's needed.

Head-to-head prediction: Brisbane Lions by 26 points.

Betting tip: Charlie Cameron 3+ goals.

 

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies

Saturday, August 15, 7:40 pm AEST - MCG, Melbourne

The Pies are going OK. Make no mistake. Injuries and personnel problems but with Whispering Nick, they always have a chance.

Josh Daicos was immense last week, too, which was a nice return to form for the "the" Daicos. Both are sensational performers for the black and white.

The Hawks were humbled in a big way last week by the Lions.

They went to southeast Queensland with grand designs on announcing themselves as premiership chances and departed with more questions than answers.

The Hawks - on paper - look superior to the Pies but as we saw with the previous match up this season, you have to beat Collingwood, they will not beat themselves.

Head-to-head prediction: Hawthorn Hawks by 21 points.

Betting tip: Mabior Chol 2+ goals.

 

Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons

Saturday, August 15, 8:10 pm AEST - Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

 

Port Adelaide's wheels are finally falling off despite being a gritty defensive group for most of the season.

Sydney dropped 23 goals on them after quarter time in a 97-point hammering. We know Butters is sidelined, Georgiades never made the trip and Horne-Francis injured a knee. A hammer blow.

The Dees won one of the games of the season last week with a comeback victory over the ladder-leading Dockers. The 113-109 win amplified Melbourne as more than just a surprise packet this season.

Given their record at The MCG, maybe they're this season's genuine joker in the pack.

The Dees were rolled in Adelaide in Gather Round… by Essendon (!) but I'd expect a more professional performance here with top six seedings at stake.

Head-to-head prediction: Melbourne Demons by 20 points.

Betting tip: Tom Sparrow 26+ disposals.

 

GWS Giants vs West Coast Eagles

Sunday, August 16, 1:40 pm AEST - ENGIE Stadium, Sydney

 

Both suffered losses last week meaning GWS can kiss a season goodbye and get ready for a large off-season headlined by captain Toby Greene's decision to stay or go.

For the Eagles, it's definitely been a season of growth but there is more needed to keep competing - and beating - quality opposition. They had chances to push the Pies last week but lacked class in key moments.

Here, you can imagine this becoming a low pressure contest with both teams eyeing off the end of the season.

Head-to-head prediction: GWS Giants by 22 points.

Betting tip: Lachie Ash 32+ disposals.

 

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton Blues

Sunday, August 16, 3:15 pm AEST - Marvel Stadium, Melbourne

 

Thanks to their opponents this week, the Dogs are secured inside the top 10.

The Saints in 11th, cannot catch the Dogs but the Dogs need to worry more about form than anything else.

When Marcus Bontempelli is down 10% things get real tough for this mob. The reliance on too few is obvious.

For The Baggers, things go from great to amazing with one win from the next two weeks locking them into a Wildcard place.

Last week was an immense performance given the expectation and stakes.

With four Melbourne teams currently holding the four placings in the wildcard, the home of footy looks set to hold two mega Wildcard games to kickstart the concept.

Blues fans, win here and you're in. From 1-8, you're in. All hail Josh.

Head-to-head prediction: Carlton Blues by 10 points.

Betting tip: Sam Walsh 31+ disposals.

 

Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans

Sunday, August 16, 4:40 pm AEST - MCG, Melbourne

 

Essendon looked some chance of going through last week's clash with Geelong without a goal before pinching two before the break.

Their third term was strong but there were no match for Geelong in the rain.

Here, a similar fate awaits as does the prospect of Charlie Curnow securing his third Coleman Medal.

He goes into Round 23 seven goals clear from Ben King and it's hard to see anything less than four for Charles.

The Swans went into overdrive after quarter time last week, banging through 23 goals in an epic display of dominance over Port Adelaide.

Should the Bombers bring inferior pressure, these Swans will pour on 150+ again.

Head-to-head prediction: Sydney Swans by 81 points.

Betting tip: Charlie Curnow 5+ goals.

 

Odds are subject to change. *

Fremantle
Brisbane Lions
Sydney Swans
Hawthorn
Geelong Cats
Adelaide Crows
Melbourne
Carlton
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs
GWS GIANTS
St Kilda
North Melbourne

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