<p>Taking place in Las Vegas at the T-Mobile Arena on Sunday, March 8, from 09:00 AEDT, this contest will see two of the top lightweights in the UFC take on each other inside the Octagon.</p><p>Both have come a long way since their first encounter in 2015, when Holloway managed to win that bout by securing a TKO in the first round at <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/ufc-mma">UFC Fight Night</a> 74 after a neck/shoulder injury was sustained.</p><h2>Quick Picks</h2><p><strong>Our pick:</strong> Holloway to win</p><p><strong>Value bet:</strong> Holloway to win by TKO</p><p><strong>Long shot:</strong> Oliveira to win by submission</p><h2>Tale of the Tape</h2><p>Both men have orthodox approaches, which should limit any awkwardness between the two when fighting.</p><p>Since that first fight, Holloway has become a long-reigning featherweight champion and current BMF titleholder, while Oliveira captured and defended the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/ufc/ufc-news/weight-divisions">UFC lightweight</a> belt with a run of violent finishes.</p><p>We've compared the two fighters below, with Holloway's figures first…</p><ul><li>Age - 34 vs 36</li><li>Height - 5'11" (180cm) vs 5'10" (178cm)</li><li>Stance - Orthodox vs Orthodox</li><li>Record - 27-8-0 vs 36-11-0</li><li>KO Record - 12 vs 10</li></ul><h2>Betting Preview</h2><p>How have they performed in their last five fights?</p><p><strong>Holloway's last five fights:</strong></p><ul><li>Dustin Poirier - Win (UD, 5) - Jul 2025</li><li>Ilia Topuria - Loss (TKO, 3) - Oct 2024</li><li>Justin Gaethje - Win (TKO, 5) - Apr 2024</li><li>Chan Sung Jung - Win (TKO, 3) - Aug 2023</li><li>Arnold Allen - Win (UD, 5) - Apr 2023</li></ul><p><strong>Oliveira's last five fights:</strong></p><ul><li>Mateusz Gamrot - Win (Sub, 2) - Oct 2025</li><li>Ilia Topuria - Loss (TKO, 1) - Jun 2025</li><li>Michael Chandler - Win (UD, 5) - Nov 2024</li><li>Arman Tsarukyan - Loss (SD, 3) - Apr 2024</li><li>Beneil Dariush - Win (TKO, 1) - Jun 2023</li></ul><h2>Betting Markets to Watch</h2><p>Having defeated Oliveira by TKO in 2015, we think this <strong>method of victory also offers value</strong> 11 years later. Holloway lands ~7.0 significant strikes per minute and is likely to force long-standing exchanges over 3-5 rounds. In addition, Oliveira has been hurt/dropped in many recent fights, perhaps highlighting how his age is catching up with him.</p><p><strong>Oliveira offers value in the submission market</strong>, as he holds the UFC record for most submission wins and utilises a variety of holds. However, while there is value there for it to happen, it's a long shot, as Holloway has only submitted once in his career (Dustin Poirier, Feb 2012; first loss).</p><h2>Our Prediction</h2><p>Check the latest <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/ufc-mma/ufc-matches/max-holloway-v-charles-oliveira-9926544">Holloway vs Oliveira 2 betting odds</a> at Sportsbet.</p><p>Our <strong>prediction is that Holloway is the likely winner</strong> of this match. We think there is value in him recording a TKO victory, as he works behind jab, one-twos, and long combos, often throwing 20–30 strike bursts and hardly slows over five rounds.</p><p>If you're new to <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/punter-iq/guide/how-to-bet-on-ufc">betting on UFC</a>, method of victory markets can offer excellent value when you have a strong read on a fighter's style.</p><p><strong>Oliveira to win as an underdog offers value in the submission market</strong> based on his prowess, but we think it's a long shot.</p><h2>Keep Reading</h2><ul><li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/ufc/predictions">Who's tipped to win this weekend's UFC card?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/ufc/ufc-news/greatest-fighters-of-all-time">The fighters who've left the biggest mark on the octagon</a></li><li><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/ufc/ufc-news/best-ufc-fights-of-all-time">The bouts that had everyone on the edge of their seats</a></li></ul>