Taking place in Las Vegas at the T-Mobile Arena on Sunday, March 8, from 09:00 AEDT, this contest will see two of the top lightweights in the UFC take on each other inside the Octagon.
Both have come a long way since their first encounter in 2015, when Holloway managed to win that bout by securing a TKO in the first round at UFC Fight Night 74 after a neck/shoulder injury was sustained.
Quick Picks
Our pick: Holloway to win
Value bet: Holloway to win by TKO
Long shot: Oliveira to win by submission
Tale of the Tape
Both men have orthodox approaches, which should limit any awkwardness between the two when fighting.
Since that first fight, Holloway has become a long-reigning featherweight champion and current BMF titleholder, while Oliveira captured and defended the UFC lightweight belt with a run of violent finishes.
We've compared the two fighters below, with Holloway's figures first…
- Age - 34 vs 36
- Height - 5'11" (180cm) vs 5'10" (178cm)
- Stance - Orthodox vs Orthodox
- Record - 27-8-0 vs 36-11-0
- KO Record - 12 vs 10
Betting Preview
How have they performed in their last five fights?
Holloway's last five fights:
- Dustin Poirier - Win (UD, 5) - Jul 2025
- Ilia Topuria - Loss (TKO, 3) - Oct 2024
- Justin Gaethje - Win (TKO, 5) - Apr 2024
- Chan Sung Jung - Win (TKO, 3) - Aug 2023
- Arnold Allen - Win (UD, 5) - Apr 2023
Oliveira's last five fights:
- Mateusz Gamrot - Win (Sub, 2) - Oct 2025
- Ilia Topuria - Loss (TKO, 1) - Jun 2025
- Michael Chandler - Win (UD, 5) - Nov 2024
- Arman Tsarukyan - Loss (SD, 3) - Apr 2024
- Beneil Dariush - Win (TKO, 1) - Jun 2023
Betting Markets to Watch
Having defeated Oliveira by TKO in 2015, we think this method of victory also offers value 11 years later. Holloway lands ~7.0 significant strikes per minute and is likely to force long-standing exchanges over 3-5 rounds. In addition, Oliveira has been hurt/dropped in many recent fights, perhaps highlighting how his age is catching up with him.
Oliveira offers value in the submission market, as he holds the UFC record for most submission wins and utilises a variety of holds. However, while there is value there for it to happen, it's a long shot, as Holloway has only submitted once in his career (Dustin Poirier, Feb 2012; first loss).
Our Prediction
Check the latest Holloway vs Oliveira 2 betting odds at Sportsbet.
Our prediction is that Holloway is the likely winner of this match. We think there is value in him recording a TKO victory, as he works behind jab, one-twos, and long combos, often throwing 20–30 strike bursts and hardly slows over five rounds.
If you're new to betting on UFC, method of victory markets can offer excellent value when you have a strong read on a fighter's style.
Oliveira to win as an underdog offers value in the submission market based on his prowess, but we think it's a long shot.
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