There's a version of this US Open semifinal where Aryna Sabalenka's dominance in New York makes the outcome feel almost formal.

And there's another version, playing out in the heads of anyone who watched Berlin in June, where Jessica Pegula's recent record against the top seed suggests something far less settled.

Sportsbet's own stats display shows Sabalenka has won each of her last 18 WTA main draw matches at the US Open, a number that sits at odds with a head-to-head trend that has genuinely tilted Pegula's way over the past year.

Quick Picks

• Our Pick: Match Betting: Aryna Sabalenka
• Same Game Multi (our combination): Match Betting: Aryna Sabalenka, Aryna Sabalenka Aces: 3+
• Alternative Pick: Set Betting: Jessica Pegula 2-1

Full markets for this semifinal, including both legs of that combination, are available via Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula odds .

Sabalenka's survival act sets up a heavyweight semifinal

Sabalenka needed every ounce of her competitive instinct to get here, recovering from 4-2 down in the deciding set to beat Linda Noskova 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7) and stretch her US Open winning run to 18 matches.

It was her first three-set battle of the tournament, and it cost her two hours and 22 minutes on Arthur Ashe.

Pegula's path to the semifinal was no gentler: she dropped the opening set to Emma Navarro before clawing back through an early third-set deficit to win 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in a near-identical two hours and 21 minutes.

Readers wanting a primer on navigating markets across the fortnight can check this guide on how to bet on the US Open.

• Date: Friday 11 September 2026
• Kick-off: 9:00 am AEST
• Local Kick-off: 7:00 pm EDT
• Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York

How to watch Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula in Australia

Australian broadcast rights for this US Open semifinal sit with Nine Network and Stan Sport, with Stan Sport carrying matches live and on demand.

For a broader rundown of viewing options across the tournament, the guide to watching the US Open in Australia is worth a look, and the sports available to watch live on Sportsbet page is a handy general reference for what else can be streamed through the platform, noting availability can shift week to week.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction

Sabalenka's command of Arthur Ashe, including semifinal wins over Pegula in both 2024 and 2025 within a head-to-head she leads 9-4 overall, makes her the stronger case here despite a rocky quarterfinal.

Pegula's response is real: she has won two of their last three meetings, including a 6-0 decider in Berlin, and could easily push this the distance again given how both players had to fight through three sets to reach this stage.

For those weighing how Ashe's hard court shapes this matchup, the differences between tennis surfaces offers useful context. Backing Sabalenka to close it out remains the sounder read.