The first all-American women's quarter-final at the US Open since Serena beat Venus in 2015, and the head to head reads 4-0.

Jessica Pegula has beaten Emma Navarro every time they've played, most recently 7-5 6-2 in Cincinnati three weeks ago. She's also won her last 14 matches as the favourite at Flushing Meadows.

Navarro is into her fourth Grand Slam quarter-final and her second here, but she's dropped 40 games on the way, more than anyone left in the draw.

Before we get to the full preview, the key details:

Competition: US Open, women's singles quarter-final

Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, New York

Date: Wednesday 9 September 2026 (Tuesday in New York)

Start Time: day session from 2:00am AEST, night session from 9:00am AEST, check the order of play for the slot

Quick Picks

Our Pick: Match Betting: Jessica Pegula

Alternative Pick: Set Betting: Jessica Pegula 2-0

Pegula Has Made New York Her Tournament

Third seed, 2024 finalist, and this is her third straight US Open quarter-final. She opened the tournament on Ashe with a 6-3 6-2 win over Elena-Gabriela Ruse and closed the fourth round with a 6-3 6-4 win over Sorana Cirstea in the Romanian's final Grand Slam match, a contest full of 25-shot rallies that Pegula controlled from the baseline.

The favourite streak is 14 and counting, and she's covered the games handicap in 10 of her last 11 main-draw matches here, which says the wins have been comfortable rather than scrappy.

There's a bigger prize in the background. Pegula is still in the frame for world No. 1, and the path runs through a first major title.

Aryna Sabalenka, chasing a third straight US Open, and Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova are on the other side of the draw.

Navarro Is Playing Well, Just Not Well Enough for This

Navarro beat Anna Kalinskaya 6-4 6-2 in the fourth round, her first win over the Russian in three attempts, with 10 unforced errors to Kalinskaya's 32.

When she wins the first set of a Grand Slam match she wins the match, 24 times out of 26. She reached the semi-finals here in 2024, still her best major, and the 26th seed has had a stronger second week than her ranking suggests.

Her own description of Pegula is the honest preview: the flattest ball on tour, kept low, and impossible to read whether it's coming short or deep. Navarro's plan is to disrupt the rhythm. She's tried it four times.

Games and Sets Are the Markets to Think About

Match betting is the obvious pick and the alternative is a straight-sets Pegula win. Navarro's matches tend to run long: six of her last seven Grand Slam matches have gone over the total games line, and she's conceded more games than anyone still standing.

That points at the games markets and the set-one correct-score lines rather than a quick 6-2 6-2. Pegula in two with a first set that goes to 6-4 or 7-5 fits everything above.

Aces markets are also up. Neither is a big server, so the lower lines are the ones with a realistic chance. For the latest Pegula vs Navarro odds and markets, check out the dedicated odds page at Sportsbet.

Pegula vs Navarro Prediction

Pegula in straight sets. Four wins from four in the head to head, 14 straight as the favourite here, and a fourth-round performance against Cirstea that was as controlled as anything in the women's draw.

Navarro is the better mover of the two and her error count against Kalinskaya was elite, so the danger is a tight first set that swings on a couple of points. If she takes it, her record says she finishes the job.

She won't. Pegula 7-5 6-3, and a first all-American semi-final berth secured for the home crowd.