Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction – Grand Final 2025
01/10/2025|Joel Caine|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips<p>It all comes down to this. After 27 gruelling rounds of regular season footy and a finals series packed full of drama, only the Melbourne Storm and the Brisbane Broncos remain.</p>
<p>They’ll meet in the NRL Grand Final this Sunday at Accor Stadium, in what promises to be a battle for the ages.</p>
<p>Despite being two of the highest profile and most successful sides in the modern era, this will be only the second time they’ve ever met in a decider. The first was of course back in 2006, where it was the Broncos who triumphed 15-8 in a memorable upset.</p>
<p>Since then, premiership success has eluded Brisbane, with <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/news/every-clubs-current-premiership-drought">their drought about to tick over to the two-decade mark</a>. That is if they don’t end it on Sunday.</p>
<p>The same cannot be said for the Storm, however. The epitome of sustained success over the last 20 years, Melbourne have made nine Grand Finals since 2006, winning five of them.</p>
<p>Yes, technically their ‘07 and ’09 triumphs were stripped due to salary cap breaches, but they still showed up and won those games.</p>
<p>They’ll be looking to make it six from 10 this Sunday and extract a measure of revenge against Brisbane that has been nearly 20 years in the making.</p>
<p>Revenge is a dish best served cold, as they say, and this particular pie has been cooling on the windowsill for the best part of two decades, will Brisbane bite? Let’s find out.</p>
<p>Check out our Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos match preview for plenty of betting tips and predictions across a host of markets. From H2H to anytime try scorer and everything in between. </p>
<p>Looking for all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of the 2025 NRL Grand Final? Check out our Storm vs Broncos prediction below.</p>
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<h2>Storm vs Broncos Prediction and Betting Tips</h2>
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<h3>Head-to-Head Prediction</h3>
<p>Time to attempt the question on every punter’s lips – who wins the NRL Grand Final? Well, if the<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/melbourne-storm-v-brisbane-broncos-9671134"> current head-to-head odds</a> are to be believed, the Melbourne Storm.</p>
<p>It’s not surprising to see the early money funnelling in for the Storm, they are far more experienced when it comes to making and most importantly winning Grand Finals.</p>
<p>They were here last year, only to become the fourth straight victim of the Penrith dynasty. Their most recent premiership triumph came back in 2020, where a first-half masterclass helped them get the best of the aforementioned Panthers.</p>
<p>Speaking of victims of the Penrith dynasty, it was Brisbane who were number three. In the most memorable of the Panthers four-straight Grand Final victories, the Broncos were home and hosed thanks to an Ezra Mam hat-trick, until an eleventh-hour masterclass from the inevitable Nathan Cleary snatched the Provan-Summons trophy away.</p>
<p>Many lessons will be learnt from that heartbreaking defeat, and Broncos' supporters up and down the land will be hoping the old adage “you have to lose one to win one” rings true on Sunday.</p>
<p>As that was only two years ago, this is effectively the same team that succumbed to the Penrith machine, but with one major addition.</p>
<p>The return of former favourite son Ben Hunt has rightfully dominated the Brisbane narrative for much of this season and now the final piece of one of the great Rugby League redemption arcs awaits.</p>
<p>It will almost be 10 years to the day since a baby-faced Ben grassed the Cowboys kick-off in golden point, ultimately costing his side the premiership.</p>
<p>Are we the only ones who are envisaging Hunt slotting a golden point field goal to win the match, just like he did a fortnight ago against the Raiders? Surely not.</p>
<p>Away from the fairytales and potential redemption arcs, the form guide between these two is worth considering before picking a winner.</p>
<p>The results of their last five meetings have the Storm slightly up on the cards 3-2, but it is the Broncos who have won this fixture most recently.</p>
<p>In terms of their respective paths to the big dance, it was Brisbane who drew the short straw but as a result are battle-hardened and ready for anything.</p>
<p>While the Storm had to see off a busted Bulldogs and a solid, but not amazing Sharks side, Brisbane had to go through the Minor Premiers and the reigning Champions to get here.</p>
<p>Both results required remarkable second stanza revivals to secure the chocolates and surely means their belief is borderline unbreakable now.</p>
<p>If you go back to our <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/predictions/broncos-finals-preview-2025">pre-finals previews</a> you’ll see we went hunting value by tipping Brisbane to be crowned the eventual premiers and now that they are one win away, there’s no way we’re abandoning ship now.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Brisbane Broncos.</p>
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<h3>First Tryscorer Prediction</h3>
<p>Even though we think it will be the Broncos lifting the Provan-Summons trophy come full-time of the 2025 NRL Grand Final, we actually think it will be a Melbourne Storm player opening the scoring.</p>
<p>Over their last two must-win matches, Brisbane have outed themselves as second half specialists. They love to start slow and then come home with a wet sail and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.</p>
<p>That’s why we’re taking Melbourne put down specialist Xavier Coates to be the first across the stripe.</p>
<p>Panther’s winger Paul Alamoti exposed Brisbane’s weakness out wide on the weekend, and with Coates more than capable of similarly acrobatic finishes, he’s our pick for first tryscorer for the Grand Final.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Xavier Coates.</p>
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<h3>Over/Under Prediction</h3>
<p>Three of the last five matches between these two sides have gone over the total match points line. That being said, Grand Finals are often cagey affairs and the final scores of both of these side’s Prelims totalled under 39.5 points, which is the total points line here.</p>
<p>Unless there is an early sin bin or something else that leads to an all-out firefight, we anticipate both teams to tread trepidatiously and for this to be a low scoring affair.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Under total match points (39.5).</p>
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<h3>Line Prediction</h3>
<p>Melbourne has failed to cover the line in each of their last four matches at Accor Stadium.</p>
<p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Brisbane Broncos line (+1.5). </p>
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<h2>Storm vs Broncos Anytime Tryscorer Betting Tips</h2>
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<h3>Josiah Karapani</h3>
<p>Josiah Karapani has scored a try in five of Brisbane's last six matches.</p>
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<h3>Will Warbrick</h3>
<p>Will Warbrick has scored at least one try in each of his four previous appearances with Melbourne as a favourite against Brisbane.</p>
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<h3>Gehamat Shibasaki</h3>
<p>Gehamat Shibasaki has scored at least one try in three of his last four appearances.</p>
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<h3>Ryan Papenhuyzen</h3>
<p>Ryan Papenhuyzen has scored at least one try in eight of his last 10 finals appearances with Melbourne as a favourite.</p>
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<h3>Kotoni Staggs</h3>
<p>Kotoni Staggs has scored at least one try in five of Brisbane's last six matches.</p>
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<h2>Storm vs Broncos Confirmed Teams</h2>
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<h3>Melbourne Storm Confirmed Team List</h3>
<p>1. Ryan Papenhuyzen</p>
<p>2. Will Warbrick</p>
<p>3. Jack Howarth</p>
<p>4. Nick Meaney</p>
<p>5. Xavier Coates</p>
<p>6. Cameron Munster</p>
<p>7. Jahrome Hughes</p>
<p>8. Stefano Utoikamanu</p>
<p>9. Harry Grant</p>
<p>10. Josh King </p>
<p>11. Shawn Blore</p>
<p>12. Eli Katoa</p>
<p>13. Trent Loiero</p>
<p>14. Tyran Wishart</p>
<p>15. Ativalu Lisati</p>
<p>16. Tui Kamakimica</p>
<p>17. Alec MacDonald</p>
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<h3>Brisbane Broncos Confirmed Team List</h3>
<p>1. Reece Walsh</p>
<p>2. Josiah Karapani</p>
<p>3. Kotoni Staggs</p>
<p>4. Gehamat Shibasaki</p>
<p>5. Deine Mariner</p>
<p>6. Ben Hunt</p>
<p>7. Adam Reynolds</p>
<p>8. Corey Jensen</p>
<p>9. Cory Paix</p>
<p>10. Payne Haas</p>
<p>11. Brendan Piakura</p>
<p>12. Jordan Riki</p>
<p>13. Patrick Carrigan</p>
<p>14. Ezra Mam</p>
<p>15. Kobe Hetherington</p>
<p>16. Xavier Willison</p>
<p>17. Tyson Smoothy</p>
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<h2>Storm vs Broncos Match Details</h2>
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<p><strong>Date: </strong>Sunday, October 5, 2025.</p>
<p><strong>Kick-off:</strong> 6:30pm AEST.</p>
<p><strong>Location:</strong> Accor Stadium, Sydney.</p>
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