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NRL Tips and Predictions – Preliminary Finals 2025

23/09/2025|Joel Caine|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips
<p>Then there were four. The dust has settled on the semis and now only the Storm, Sharks, Broncos and Panthers are left standing.</p> <p>An untimely bout of illness at the eleventh hour for Canberra’s main man Ethan Strange led to the Green Machine being unceremoniously dumped out in straight sets.</p> <p>Elsewhere the Bulldogs proved it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish, going from early season favourites for the premiership, to just another victim of the Penrith machine.</p> <p>Those results now give way to two top-tier Preliminary Finals with the Storm welcoming the Sharks to AAMI Park, while the Broncos will attempt to be the first side to stop Penrith from making the Grand Final in six years.</p> <p>With both of these fixtures poised on an absolute knife’s edge, some expert NRL tips and predictions wouldn’t go astray to help try and decipher who will be advancing to the grand final.</p> <p>For all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of the week two of finals, check out our expert NRL Preliminary Finals tips and predictions below.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Friday, September 26, 7:50pm AEST – AAMI Park</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The first of this weekend’s NRL Preliminary Finals sees the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/predictions/melbourne-storm-finals-preview-2025">Melbourne Storm</a> welcome the <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/predictions/sharks-finals-preview-2025">Cronulla Sharks</a> to AAMI Park on Friday night.</p> <p>Despite being far from convincing over the last month, Melbourne find themselves in yet another Grand Final qualifier, their tenth in the last 11 seasons. They’ve got about a 50% strike rate in that time when it comes to converting prelims into GF appearances, so they know fully well what it takes to progress to the big dance.</p> <p>The Sharks haven’t been here nearly as often as their Friday opponents, but they did make the final four last season.</p> <p>However, it would have been better if they didn’t, as they were blown away 26-6 by eventual Premiers Penrith. Can they go one better this time around and make the Granny for the first time since 2016?</p> <p>They’re certainly in better stead this year, having effectively flown under the radar right up until they sent the Raiders packing last start.</p> <p>They’ve beaten the Storm this season too, a gutsy seven-point triumph back in May, however their rematch a month later ended in a 24-point defeat.</p> <p>Melbourne have looked the goods for most of the year, up until recently anyway. They lost their final two regular season games and had to fight tooth and nail to see of a busted Bulldogs outfit in the first week of the finals to get to this game.</p> <p>Normally this downturn in form would make punters flee towards the Sharks in the H2H market, but proceed with caution, all of those sub-par Storm showings had one thing in common.</p> <p>That thing is that either Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes or Ryan Papenhuyzen were absent. If reports are to be believed, that will not be the case here, with the superstar trio set to join Cameron Munster to complete Melbourne’s big four.</p> <p>As impressed with the Sharks as we have been of late, they will well and truly be swimming upstream here, and we just can’t see them shaking down the Storm and their four megastars in Melbourne.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/melbourne-storm-v-cronulla-sharks-9646565">Melbourne Storm.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>SGM – Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen anytime try scorers.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers Prediction</h2> <p><em><strong>Sunday, September 28, 4:05pm AEST – Suncorp Stadium</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This weekend’s second NRL Preliminary Final, sees <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/predictions/broncos-finals-preview-2025">Brisbane</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/predictions/panthers-finals-preview-2025">Penrith</a> take to Suncorp Stadium in a repeat for the 2023 decider.</p> <p>Everyone remembers how that played out and no doubt the Broncos will be champing at the bit to get one over the current NRL champs.</p> <p>The dynamic heading into this clash is a truly unique one, as both sides were first expected to be here, then they weren’t, now they are.</p> <p>Naturally, being the reigning back-to-back-to-back-to-back champions Penrith started the season as Premiership favourites, only for things to take a sharp turn south. Inexplicably, the men from the foot of the mountains found themselves at the foot of the table after 10 rounds.</p> <p>Of course, as soon as everyone systematically ruled them out of any final’s participation, they went on an almighty winning streak, led by who else, but Nathan Cleary and almost made the top four.</p> <p>In the end they had to settle for seventh, but being able to call on the experience of four consecutively successful finals series placed them in perfect stead to see off the Warriors and Bulldogs to book this battle with the Broncos.</p> <p>Speaking of Brisbane, despite a disappointing campaign in 2024, the arrival of a new coach in premiership winner Michael Maguire and former favourite son Ben Hunt had punters scrambling to load in on the new look Broncos.</p> <p>This appeared to be a smart investment after their round 1 dismantling of the Roosters on the road, kicking off their campaign by scoring 50 points.</p> <p>However, like their opponents this Sunday, the wheels quickly fell off, everyone jumped off the bandwagon and then the revival began.</p> <p>A highly productive final month and half of the season saw the Broncos sneak into the top four, allowing them to produce what will long be remembered as the greatest heist in NRL Finals history against the unsuspecting Raiders a fortnight ago.</p> <p>So that’s how both sides got here, but what kind of shape do they find themselves in now? Well for the Panthers, they have won their last three games, and their only injury concern is Liam Martin, who is currently being monitored for a rib injury.</p> <p>Brisbane enter this one on the back of a week off and a five-match winning streak. They also get the luxury of playing at home and are set to welcome back skipper Adam Reynolds.</p> <p>That’s the good news. The bad news is unlikely hero Billy Walters is gone for the season and then some after injuring his ACL, with a lot of Brisbane’s recent success down to his combination in the halves with Hunt. Also, inspiration forward Patty Carrigan is out via&nbsp;suspension.</p> <p>The biggest thing working against Michael Maguire’s men here, however, is simply their recent record against the Panthers. Of their last five matches against Penrith, Brisbane have lost every single one of them.</p> <p>That being said, they weren’t supposed to beat the Storm and make the top four and at 28-10 down against the Raiders with 15 to play, they sure as hell weren’t supposed to win that one.</p> <p>Their season was meant to be over back in round 23 when Reynolds and Mam, their starting halves, both went down in the same play. Since Hunt and Walters replaced them, they haven’t lost.</p> <p>Yes, Walters won’t play here, but this story has always been about the man they call Dozer.</p> <p>It’s exactly 10 years since his infamous golden point blunder which cost Brisbane the 2015 premiership and we are currently in the midst of witnessing the greatest redemption arc in NRL history.</p> <p>It was Hunt who slotted the outrageous 40m field goal in the 15th minute of overtime to get Brisbane this home Prelim, and he’s steered the ship without fault since Reynolds got injured.</p> <p>He’s got a date with destiny in the game that comes after this one and we reckon he’ll be damned if he’s going to let the Panthers stand in his way, regardless how many premiership rings currently cover their fingers.</p> <p><strong>Head-to-head prediction:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/nrl/brisbane-broncos-v-penrith-panthers-9649000">Brisbane Broncos.</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Reece Walsh first try scorer.</p>
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