Who Will Win the Victorian Election Prediction

Victorians head to the polls on Saturday, November 28, and this is shaping as one of the most open state elections in years.

Labor has been in government since 2014 and is chasing a fourth straight term. They’ll go to the election with a Premier who only took over in July.

Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as Premier, while across the chamber, Jess Wilson has led the Liberals since November last year.

Throw in a One Nation vote that has polled at 20% or more in recent months, and the Greens pushing for more inner-city seats, and there are plenty of ways this could go.

To form a majority government, a party needs 45 of the 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly. Labor currently holds 54 and the Liberal-National Coalition holds 29.

So, who will be the next Premier of Victoria? Here are the frontrunners to win the Victorian election.

Who Will Win the Victorian Election? 

Ben Carroll

Ben Carroll became Victoria's 50th Premier on July 28, elected Labor leader unopposed after Jacinta Allan resigned.

The Member for Niddrie now has the job of leading Labor to a fourth consecutive term, after three straight election wins under Daniel Andrews.

Labor goes in with a big buffer. It won 56 seats in 2022 with a two-party-preferred vote of 55-45, and it still holds 54 today. The Coalition would need to win 16 more seats to govern in its own right.

The challenge is the polls. Labor's primary vote has sat around 24-25% in the most recent surveys, and the Coalition has led on a two-party-preferred basis in every published poll since July.

Carroll has backed in the Suburban Rail Loop and announced a public transport fare cap. Can a new leader turn things around in a matter of weeks?

Jess Wilson

Jess Wilson took over as Liberal leader in November 2025, ousting Brad Battin in a party-room spill to become the first woman to lead the Victorian Liberals.

The Member for Kew is also shadow treasurer, and the Coalition, which she leads with Nationals leader Danny O'Brien, has made the economy and state debt the centrepiece of its campaign.

Its pitches include pausing the Suburban Rail Loop and returning the budget to a cash surplus by 2032.

The numbers have been kind to the Opposition lately. Recent polls have the Coalition's primary vote between 28% and 30%, and Wilson has led Carroll as preferred premier in recent surveys.

But the climb is steep. The Coalition holds 29 seats and needs 45 for majority government, and it has also had to contend with One Nation competing for many of the same voters.

Warren Pickering

Warren Pickering is One Nation's lead candidate in Victoria, unveiled in August.

One Nation won no lower-house seats in 2022, but it has polled between 20% and 24% in recent surveys, putting it level with or close to Labor's primary vote in some of them.

Much of the focus is on regional Victoria, where One Nation is seen as a threat in Nationals-held seats such as Morwell, Gippsland East and Murray Plains.

Going from no lower-house seats to 45 would be a huge leap, but a strong showing could reshape the Assembly and play a big role in how preferences flow.

Ellen Sandell

Ellen Sandell leads the Victorian Greens and holds the inner-city seat of Melbourne.

The Greens won four seats in 2022 and have polled between 14% and 16% in recent surveys, with their support ticking up in October.

The party's support is strongest in inner Melbourne, and that's where it will be looking to add seats. If neither major party reaches 45 seats, the Greens could find themselves with real influence over who governs.

A Hung Parliament?

With Labor's primary vote at historic lows, the Coalition needing a big swing and One Nation and the Greens both polling strongly, a hung parliament is a genuine possibility.

If no party reaches 45 seats, the result could come down to negotiations with the crossbench, which currently includes two independents, Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman, both former Labor MPs.

Campaign issues like the economy, state debt and crime will help decide which way undecided voters fall. Early voting opens on November 18, so the parties don't have long to make their case.

Who will win the Victorian election? Keep an eye on all the latest Victorian politics markets at Sportsbet as the state heads to the polls on November 28.

*Odds are subject to change.