The 2025-26 NBA season hit its halfway point weeks ago and, as many punters know, the best futures bets sometimes reveal themselves after everyone else has moved on.
While most people tend to chase nightly game lines, there can be pockets of value also in the long-term markets where patience can pay dividends.
Right now, there’s a particular angle that stands out on Sportsbet’s NBA futures board, and it involves backing a three-time MVP who represents surprising value.
Nikola Jokic for MVP: The Serbian's Path Back to Glory
The NBA MVP betting race has essentially become a two-horse affair between Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which mirrors exactly how things played out last season when SGA claimed the hardware.
Currently, Gilgeous-Alexander holds favourite status with most bookmakers, but the timing seems right to back Jokic.
Injuries have shuffled the deck dramatically. Jokic missed nearly a month recently, which allowed SGA to surge ahead in odds and narrative.
Now the tables have turned: Jokic is back dominating, while Gilgeous-Alexander nurses an abdominal injury that's kept him sidelined. When voters look back over the full season, they'll remember who was available down the stretch, and availability absolutely matters for MVP consideration.
The statistical case for Jokic remains almost ridiculous. He's averaging something like 28.8 points, 12.2 rebounds and 10.7 assists while shooting an absurd 59.3 percent from the field and 42 percent from three-point range.
By advanced metrics like plus-minus in the NBA (15.8) and win shares per 48 minutes (.363), Jokic is actually posting career-best marks.
Sure, Gilgeous-Alexander is producing monster numbers too, putting up around 31.8 points nightly with solid assists and rebounds. But even SGA's impressive advanced statistics trail what Jokic is accomplishing across the board. The gap in efficiency and overall impact is real, even if the counting stats look closer.
Two factors initially pushed SGA ahead: Jokic's injury and Oklahoma City's scorching start. Both narratives have shifted considerably now. The Thunder's lead has shrunk, Denver remains comfortably in playoff position, and that's really all Jokic needs from a team success standpoint.
Perhaps most intriguingly, voter fatigue could actually work in Jokic's favour this time around. Since SGA edged him out last season, some voters might feel inclined to split the honours if both players post similar numbers.
That "taking turns" mentality isn't official policy, but it's absolutely a factor in how these awards get decided.