<p>Right, let's cut through the noise. NBA free agency 2025 has wrapped, and with the season tipping off Tuesday, some teams are looking properly set. Others? Massive mistakes that we'll watch unravel over the next few months.</p> <p>Myles Turner leaving the Pacers days after the Finals. The Bucks stretching Damian Lillard's entire contract just to sign him. Phoenix handing Devin Booker a painful extension. The Lakers sorting their centre situation.</p> <p>T<strong>his offseason, teams got creative </strong>with buyouts, stretched salaries to absurd lengths, and threw money at players who probably didn't deserve it. The new CBA's second apron restrictions forced front offices into uncomfortable decisions, and we're about to see which ones were brilliant and which were desperate.</p> <p>If <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/basketball-us/nba">you're looking at NBA championship odds</a> or just want to understand which teams improved heading into opening night, this breakdown will sort you out. We're analyzing every major move, calling out the overpays, and highlighting the value signings that slipped under the radar.</p> <h2>The Biggest Winners</h2> <h3>Golden State Warriors: Nailed the Offseason</h3> <p><strong>What they did:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Signed Al Horford on multi-year deal</li> <li>Re-signed Jonathan Kuminga (2 years, $48.5M)</li> <li>Added Seth Curry, De'Anthony Melton to the bench</li> </ul> <p>The Warriors looked at their roster needs and actually sorted them. Properly.</p> <p>Al Horford at 39 years old still shoots 40% from three and defends multiple positions. That's exactly what Golden State needs next to Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler. The frontcourt shooting was the missing piece after adding Butler at the deadline, and Horford solves it immediately.</p> <p>Horford's been carefully managed by Boston for years, with no back-to-backs, 28 minutes per game. The Warriors will do the same, which means Trayce Jackson-Davis and Quinten Post need to step up during the regular season. But come playoff time? This team goes 12 deep with playoff experience.</p> <p>Speaking of experience: between Green, Steph Curry, Butler, and Horford, you've got four players who've been to virtually every NBA Finals since 2014 except two. That's an absolutely incredible depth of knowledge.</p> <p>The Kuminga resolution wasn't perfect (two years with a team option creates some uncertainty) but it keeps him tradeable and gets both sides past the standoff. He waived his trade restriction too, which tells you everything about how this relationship might end.</p> <p><strong>The verdict:</strong> Golden State added legitimate pieces around their stars while maintaining flexibility. <strong>We'll see starting Tuesday if this depth translates to wins.</strong></p> <h3>LA Clippers: Smart Moves for an Aging Core</h3> <p><strong>What they did:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Signed Bradley Beal after buyout (2 years, $11M)</li> <li>Signed Chris Paul reunion (1 year, vet min)</li> <li>Added John Collins via trade</li> <li>Added Brook Lopez</li> </ul> <p>The Clippers looked at their injury-riddled season and said "right, we need 15 players who can actually play." Mission accomplished.</p> <p>Bradley Beal's no longer an All-Star, but he shot 41% on threes in Phoenix and still creates for others. More importantly, he's insurance for when (not if) Kawhi Leonard misses time. Same with Chris Paul backing up James Harden.</p> <p>That CP3 signing is proper smart business. One-year deal, veteran's minimum, brings back a player who started 82 games last season with San Antonio. Sure, he fell apart in the playoffs with Denver, but as a backup running the second unit? That's perfect.</p> <p>The depth is impressive now. The Clippers go 11 deep with players who averaged 17+ minutes last season. Paul (28.0 MPG), Beal (32.1), Collins (30.5), and Lopez (31.8) all logged serious minutes. That's how you manage Kawhi's load and Harden's age through an 82-game slog.</p> <p><strong>The catch:</strong> This roster doesn't make them better than OKC, Denver, or Houston. But it keeps them in the playoff picture in a loaded Western Conference, which is all they can ask given their situation and injury history.</p> <p><strong>The verdict:</strong> These are the right moves for a team managing decline while staying competitive. Opening night will show us if the depth works.</p> <h3>Los Angeles Lakers: Actually Made Sense</h3> <p><strong>What they did:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Signed Deandre Ayton (2 years, split from non-taxpayer MLE)</li> <li>Signed Marcus Smart (2 years, $11M via biannual exception)</li> <li>LeBron opted in ($52.6M)</li> <li>Luka Doncic extension (3 years, $165M)</li> </ul> <p>The Lakers actually… sorted their issues? Shocking, I know.</p> <p>Ayton was the missing piece. He's 27, gives them a lob threat for Luka Doncic, and is a massive upgrade over Jaxson Hayes (who disappeared in the playoffs after averaging 13.4 points in the regular season's second half).</p> <p>Marcus Smart after the buyout? Absolute steal. Yeah, he struggled in Memphis with injuries, but he's a former Defensive Player of the Year on a biannual exception. He looked revitalized in his 15 games with Washington before being shut down. If he's even 80% of what he was in Boston, that's rotation-caliber defence the Lakers desperately needed.</p> <p>The Doncic extension was inevitable once they traded for him. He can opt out in 2028 and chase the supermax at 10 years of service, but for now, the Lakers have their superstar locked in. That's the kind of franchise-altering move that changes everything.</p> <p><strong>The problem:</strong> They still need more. With LeBron at 41, this roster might not be championship-caliber yet. But they've got their unprotected 2031 pick and multiple swaps to throw into a trade if something opens up by the deadline.</p> <p><strong>The verdict: </strong>Fixed the obvious holes without mortgaging the future. We'll see this <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nba/tips/nba-week-1-betting-predictions-2025">NBA Week 1</a> if the pieces fit.</p> <h2>The Biggest Losers</h2> <h3>Phoenix Suns: Absolute Disaster</h3> <p><strong>What they did:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Extended Devin Booker (2 years, $145M starting in 2028)</li> <li>Bought out and stretched Bradley Beal's contract</li> </ul> <p>How do you spectacularly mess up an offseason when you're not even making major moves? Phoenix found a way, and we're going to watch this disaster unfold all season.</p> <p>The Devin Booker extension is controversial. Two years, $145 million starting in 2028-29. That's $70+ million per season for a player who'll be 32 years old, wasn't an All-Star last year, and has made All-NBA just twice in his entire career.</p> <p>Let's be clear: Booker's good. Proper quality player, easily top 25 in the league. But he's not a top 10 player, never has been, and by the time this extension kicks in (shortly before his 32nd birthday) he definitely won't be.</p> <p>That's the contract you give to Nikola Jokić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, not a complementary scorer.</p> <p>The math doesn't lie either. Booker finished fourth in MVP voting once (2021-22) and received votes that one time. He averaged 27.1 points last season but couldn't make the All-Star team. That's not $70 million player production.</p> <p>The Beal buyout is also one that makes sense on paper, since they're getting out of the second apron and its restrictions, but they stretched his salary over five years.</p> <p>That's dead money sitting on the books through 2029-30 for a player who's not even on the team anymore. The Suns are essentially paying luxury tax penalties on a ghost.</p> <p>Phoenix traded Kevin Durant, stretched Bradley Beal, and gave Devin Booker an overpay extension. That's three franchise-altering mistakes in one offseason.</p> <p><strong>The verdict:</strong> This is how you waste years of potential contention. Phoenix heads into the season worse off than they finished last year.</p> <h3>Indiana Pacers: Bottled It After the Finals</h3> <p><strong>What they did:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Lost Myles Turner to Milwaukee (4 years, $107M)</li> </ul> <p>The Pacers made the NBA Finals. Game 7. Tyrese Haliburton's Achilles rupture away from potentially winning it all. Nine days later, their starting centre signed with a division rival.</p> <p>Brutal doesn't even cover it.</p> <p>Turner was the defensive anchor, the floor spacer, and the guy who let them play fast without getting torched on the other end. He averaged 16.8 points and 2.2 blocks in the playoffs. Replacing that production? Good luck.</p> <p>Indiana can use the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to replace him, but who's out there? Al Horford went to Golden State. Brook Lopez went to the Clippers. The centre market dried up fast, and none of the remaining options have Turner's two-way impact.</p> <p>Here's the painful part: This was the moment for Indiana to pay the luxury tax. You just made the Finals with a 26-year-old superstar point guard in Haliburton. Pascal Siakam's locked in long-term. One tax year to run it back with the same core isn't unreasonable…some may say it's simply necessary.</p> <p>Instead, they let Turner walk to stay under the tax line, and now they're scrambling to fill the biggest hole on the roster. Turner chose Milwaukee in part because the Bucks showed they're willing to do whatever it takes to win (see: stretching Lillard's entire contract).</p> <p><strong>The verdict:</strong> Losing your starting centre after a Finals run because you wouldn't pay the tax is inexcusable. We'll watch Indiana struggle with this all season.</p> <h3>Dallas Mavericks: Messy Roster Management</h3> <p><strong>What they did:</strong></p> <ul> <li>Extended P.J. Washington (4 years, $90M)</li> <li>Lost Luka Doncic in trade to Lakers</li> </ul> <p>The P.J. Washington extension is fine in isolation. He's versatile, shot 38% on threes last season, and defends multiple positions. That's fair value at $22.5 million per year.</p> <p>There is one problem, though: Dallas now has five starting-caliber frontcourt players and only four spots in the lineup at most. Anthony Davis at power forward, Washington, Daniel Gafford, Klay Thompson pushing down from shooting guard, and Cooper Flagg (the No. 1 pick) as a nominal small forward.</p> <p>Someone had to be traded. Instead, they extended Washington, which means he can't be dealt until mid-January due to standard restrictions, and even then it's complicated because he's adding four years at maximum value with 8% raises. That makes him ineligible for trade for six months, a period extending beyond the 2026 trade deadline.</p> <p>Now they're stuck with a rotation logjam and no easy way to fix it. Washington probably has to play small forward and be their primary wing defender, which isn't his best position. His versatility helps, but asking him to guard quicker wings full-time exposes his limitations.</p> <p>And all this roster construction confusion happened while they lost Luka Doncic in the trade to the Lakers. The Mavericks got back significant assets in that deal, but losing a generational talent creates a massive hole.</p> <p>With 12 players making at least $5 million under contract through 2026-27 (only one being a player option), Dallas has painted themselves into a corner. They're already projected north of $210 million for that season—enough to push them into the first apron even before filling out the roster.</p> <p><strong>The verdict:</strong> Made sense individually, disaster collectively. Watch the rotation struggles unfold this week.</p> <h2>The Best Deals</h2> <p>Let's talk about the signings that'll age beautifully and make other GMs jealous.</p> <h3>Chris Paul to Clippers: Highway Robbery</h3> <p><strong>The deal: </strong>1 year, veteran's minimum</p> <p>This is genuinely absurd value. CP3 started 82 games last season with San Antonio, becoming the first player to complete a full schedule in his 20th NBA season or later. He averaged 15.3 points, 7.0 assists, and 6.1 rebounds while posting an above-average .579 true shooting percentage.</p> <p>Yeah, he collapsed in the playoffs with Denver (11-of-42 shooting over the final five games against OKC), but that was in a starting role being asked to do too much. As a backup point guard running the second unit behind James Harden? That's perfect.</p> <p>The Clippers get proven playmaking, someone who can spell Harden during the regular season to keep him fresh, and a player with 108 career playoff games worth of experience. For the veteran's minimum. That's the kind of signing that makes you question why 29 other teams passed.</p> <h3>Al Horford to Warriors: Perfect Fit</h3> <p><strong>The deal:</strong> Multi-year contract via taxpayer midlevel exception</p> <p>Horford's 39 years old and still shooting 40% on threes (he hit 36% last season but was over 40% the previous two years) while defending the perimeter better than most centers two decades younger.</p> <p>Golden State gets exactly what they needed: frontcourt shooting next to Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler, plus someone who can switch defensively in the playoffs.</p> <p>The careful minutes management will be key: Horford last played a back-to-back in March 2022 and was limited to 28 minutes per game despite Boston's depth issues. But the Warriors have Trayce Jackson-Davis and Quinten Post to handle the regular season load.</p> <p>Come playoff time, Horford's still elite. He's been to multiple Finals, knows how to play winning basketball, and his skill set ages well because it's built on IQ and shooting rather than athleticism.</p> <h2>The Worst Deals</h2> <p>Now for the contracts that'll haunt front offices and make fans groan.</p> <h3>Devin Booker Extension: Painful Overpay</h3> <p><strong>The deal:</strong> 2 years, $145M (starting 2028-29)</p> <p>Already covered this in the Losers section, but it bears repeating because it's that bad.</p> <p>$70+ million per season for a 32-year-old who's not a top-10 player. Booker's made All-NBA twice in his career, received MVP votes once, and wasn't an All-Star last season despite averaging 27.1 points.</p> <p>The Lakers are paying Luka Doncic $55 million per year in his extension, and<a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/basketball-us/nba-player-awards"> Doncic is a genuine MVP candidate</a> who makes All-NBA first team regularly. That's the proper comparison point, and Booker doesn't belong in that conversation.</p> <p>Phoenix had Booker under contract through 2027-28 already. They could've waited. They had all the leverage. Instead, they panicked and gave him the extension he wanted. This is the kind of deal that gets a GM fired within two years.</p> <h3>Toumani Camara Extension: Baffling</h3> <p><strong>The deal: </strong>4 years, $82M</p> <p>Portland gave a 3-and-D role player $20.5 million per year before he even hit restricted free agency. Let that sink in.</p> <p>The comparable here is Herb Jones with New Orleans, who averages similar scoring (never more than 11.0 PPG) but made All-Defensive first team in 2023-24.</p> <p>Jones signed an extension in July paying $22.5 million per season, but Jones was heading toward unrestricted free agency at the time.</p> <p>When Jones was in Camara's exact position (coming off his rookie contract, heading to restricted free agency), he re-signed for $54 million over four years. That was basically identical to the non-taxpayer midlevel exception at the time.</p> <p>An equivalent extension starting next season would pay about $65 million, which is $17 million less than Camara got.</p> <p>Camara was heading to restricted free agency next summer after the Blazers declined a $2.4 million team option. Portland had all the leverage, a team option to fall back on, and still overpaid by nearly $20 million over the life of the contract.</p> <p>The hope is that Camara grows beyond his 3-and-D role, as he averaged 13.8 points after the All-Star break. But even if he does, this was too much money too soon for a player the team controlled.</p> <h2>The Biggest Surprises</h2> <h3>Myles Turner Leaves Indiana for Milwaukee</h3> <p>Nobody saw this coming. Turner seemed locked into Indiana after starting Game 7 of the NBA Finals for them. Instead, the Bucks stretched Damian Lillard's entire $112.6 million contract ($22.5 million dead cap per year for five years through 2029-30) and cleared space to sign him.</p> <p>That's the biggest waive-and-stretch in NBA history. For a 29-year-old center. The Bucks also had to trade Pat Connaughton to Charlotte with draft picks to create the additional space needed.</p> <p>The commitment level is insane: Milwaukee essentially mortgaged five years of cap flexibility to add Turner now. That tells you how serious they are about Giannis Antetokounmpo's championship window.</p> <h3>Luka Doncic to the Lakers</h3> <p>The trade itself wasn't shocking once rumors started circulating at the deadline, but the Lakers actually pulling it off was impressive.</p> <p>Getting Doncic to sign a three-year extension immediately afterward? That changed the Western Conference power structure overnight.</p> <p>The Lakers reportedly used Doncic's potential to leave as leverage to keep their remaining first-round picks out of the Dallas trade package. Smart negotiating on both sides.</p> <h2>Championship Implications</h2> <p>Right, let's be honest about what all this means for the title race heading into opening week.</p> <h3>Eastern Conference Power Rankings:</h3> <p><strong>1. Boston Celtics - Still the favourites. </strong>The Niang-for-Boucher swap saves luxury tax while maintaining quality. They're still the team to beat heading into the season.</p> <p><strong>2. Milwaukee Bucks - Improved but have questions.</strong> Turner improves their starting five, but wing depth remains an issue. Kyle Kuzma and Taurean Prince combined for 35 points on 14-of-45 shooting in the playoff loss to Indiana. That's not fixed yet.</p> <p><strong>3. New York Knicks - Stayed pat.</strong> The Mikal Bridges extension locks in their core, but they didn't add anyone. With $206 million committed to nine players for 2026-27, they're heading toward second apron restrictions.</p> <h3>Western Conference Power Rankings:</h3> <p><strong>1. Oklahoma City Thunder - Defending champions.</strong> Locked up their core (SGA supermax, Holmgren and Williams extensions) without making splashy signings. Continuity matters when you just won the championship.</p> <p><strong>2. Los Angeles Lakers - Legitimate threats.</strong> Luka Doncic plus improved depth (Ayton, Smart) makes them dangerous. They're still a move or two away from being favourites, but they're in the conversation.</p> <p><strong>3. Denver Nuggets - Quiet but solid.</strong> Didn't make major moves but remain a threat with Nikola Jokić. The West runs through teams with legitimate superstars, and Jokić is still the best player in basketball.</p>