It's been pretty much the same story for Wales in terms of international rugby, having entered a period where they simply cannot buy a win. The Welsh were winless last year, and are one game away from having 10 defeats in two years in this competition without a win.
For Italy, their young group of talented players have been making much of the rugby world take note, as they've had two impressive victories against Scotland and England this year.
Quick Picks
Our pick: Italy to win
Value bet: Italy to win by 1-7 points
Long shot: 2nd half to have most points scored
Betting Preview
Wales can't be heading into this game with any real confidence, as they've been blitzed in almost every game they've played this European winter. They have managed to score just 59 points, allowing 155 to their opponents across four games.
Italy haven't been much better in terms of points scoring, having only amassed three more than them (62). However, the difference has been in their defence, as they've only allowed 86 points, which is two more than the nation to have allowed the fewest (Scotland).
As noted, Italy's two wins have come against Scotland (18-15) and England (23-18), with the latter coming last weekend. Wales were beaten 27-17 by Ireland in their last outing.
Of the last five Six Nations betting meetings between these two teams, Italy have won three, including the last two. Of the last 10 meetings across all competitions, Wales are 7-3 against the Italians.
Betting Markets to Watch
When looking at the betting markets for value, it's worth exploring the handicap market in this one. Wales at 3.5 offers some value, as games have typically been very tight between these teams.
Of the last two games played in Wales, Italy have won by 3 points (24-21) and by 1 point (22-21). With neither team able to put significant points on the board in each of their games throughout the tournament, we think this one will be just as close as these totals. By extension, we think the 'Italy to win by 1-7' market offers value that is also worth exploring.
As a long shot, we think there's value worth exploring in the 'Highest Scoring Half' market, with the 'Second Half' odds offering a better price. With games often opening up the further they go due to fatigue, we think it's worth value as a long shot bet.
Our Prediction
Check the latest Wales vs Italy betting odds at Sportsbet.
Our prediction is that Italy win this match. We think there's value in the 'Italy to win by 1-7 points', making the Wales handicap spread worth potential additional value.
As noted, we think the second half will have the most points of the game, especially as both teams become tired, which is why we think this represents good value as a long shot. If you're looking to bet on international rugby, this match offers several interesting angles to consider.
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