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Tour de France Prediction and Betting Odds

03/07/2026|SB Staff|Misc Tips & Predictions
Tour de France

 

The upcoming 2026 Tour de France will be the 113th edition. It will start on Saturday, July 4, in Barcelona, and will see the riders tackle 21 stages, with the event finishing on Monday, July 27 (AEST).

A total of 3,333 km (2,071 mi) will need to be navigated by the riders, testing the very best with numerous challenges throughout the near-month ultimate endurance test.

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Pogačar to win

Value bet: Vingegaard in the each-way

Long shot: Del Toro as an each-way

 

Betting Preview

 

The Tour de France is the premier road cycling event in the world, with it featuring many of the world’s best competitors. However, from a betting angle, it’s an event that should make you think about each Stage individually to try and find the best edge.

On a day‑to‑day level, stage betting hinges on answering one simple question for each profile: is this more likely to be won by the bunch, by GC leaders, or by the breakaway?

Flat stages with limited wind and no tricky finale heavily favour sprinters, but the moment crosswinds, cobbles, or uphill drags are involved, strong classics riders and GC contenders come into play, and prices on pure sprinters can become traps.

Summit finishes are usually battles between GC leaders and top climbers, but race situation matters: if the yellow jersey team is content to let a non‑threatening break go because they’re defending a healthy lead, long‑odds climbers and puncheurs suddenly become very live.

Rolling and medium‑mountain days are often where breakaways thrive, so having a pre‑race list of “serial attackers” and versatile finishers pays off across three weeks.

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

Tadej Pogačar is the clear favourite in the Tour de France betting odds, with his odds a lot shorter than most in the current betting market. He has the natural skill set to win this event, with the 27-year-old having already won four events.

He comes in off another dominant spring and a crushing win at the Tour de Suisse, suggesting his climbing and time‑trial form are already at Grand Tour level, and he has a very strong UAE Team Emirates‑XRG squad built entirely around defending yellow in the mountains and controlling chaos on flatter days.

Jonas Vingegaard is the most likely to challenge him, and arrives in good form after winning the Giro d’Italia and having a more settled preparation period ahead of this Grand Tour. He also has the skill set to challenge, with the stamina and power needed.

 

Our Prediction

 

You can check out our latest cycling outright betting odds.

Our prediction is for Tadej Pogačar to be the likely winner.

Our long shot is in Isaac Del Toro as an each-way option, as he has produced some of the strongest stage‑race performances of the season, showing he can climb and time‑trial at a very high level. 

He’ll be supporting Pogačar but could still be a big contender.

Jonas Vingegaard
Tadej Pogacar
Florian Lipowitz
Isaac Del Toro
Paul Seixas
Remco Evenepoel
Juan Ayuso
Tobias Halland Johannessen
Lenny Martinez
Tom Pidcock
Antonio Tiberi
Cian Uijtdebroeks
Matteo Jorgenson
Richard Carapaz
Thymen Arensman
Jai Hindley
Mattias Skjelmose
Ben Healy
Carlos Rodriguez
Ilan Van Wilder
Kevin Vauquelin
Adam Yates
Egan Bernal
Lucas Plapp
Matthew Riccitello
Brandon McNulty
Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda
Santiago Buitrago
Davide Piganzoli
Harold Tejada
Lennert Van Eetvelt
Michael Storer
Sepp Kuss
Valentin Paret-Peintre
Alex Baudin
Einer Rubio
Jordan Jegat
Maxim Van Gils
Nairo Quintana

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