Japan will host France in the final round of Southern Hemisphere series of matches, making it the third game that each nation will have played of this new tournament.

Both have one win and a defeat on the board ahead of this upcoming encounter in Tokyo on Saturday, July 12, at 18:40 AEST.

Quick Picks

Our pick: France to win

Value bet: France Over 46.5 points

Long shot: 1st half points over 31.5

Betting Preview

Japan will host their third game of the campaign before going on their travels, having defeated Italy (27-10) and lost to Ireland (36-20). Led by Eddie Jones, they were unable to capitalise on the Irish mistakes from last week, despite having the opportunity to make the game much tighter than the 16-point margin suggested.

Indeed, the hosts started very brightly, with Taira Main scoring a try inside the first three minutes of the game. However, before Hayate Era’s try in the second half, the game had got away from Japan. Still, Takuro Matsunaga managed to convert both conversions and score two penalties.

Nonetheless, France will be an entirely different proposition. Arguably one of the best, Les Bleus even showed that they wouldn’t be rolled over by the number 2-ranked New Zealand in their first game, losing by two points (34-32).

Fabien Galthié’s side had more success against Australia, defeating the Wallabies 42-26 and gaining a bonus point.

In that game, they ran in six tries, with Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang scoring two of those. They also had a try inside the first couple of minutes of the game, with Yoram Moefana going over.

Captain Maxime Lucu was hit-and-miss with his kicks, though, converting 3 of his 5 attempts at conversion before being subbed. He was 100% from two penalty attempts.

Moses Alo-Emile and Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang made their debuts, with the latter enjoying a significant one, helping France to their largest victory against Australia in Oz (surpassing the nine-point margin from 1990), while also scoring the most points since the 31 scored in the win in 2005.

Betting Markets to Watch

Unsurprisingly, France are considered the big moneyline favourites.

With a France win the most probable outcome, there may be better value in the handicap market, even if backing Les Bleus. The line has been set at 26.5, and we think there could be a huge gap between the two teams on the day.

For France points, the Over (O 46.5) market appears to have solid value compared to the Under. The quality in the team would suggest they have the ability to slice through the Japanese defence, and they will enter this game with a relentless and professional manner. By extension, we think there’s value in the total points market being Over (65.5).

Our Prediction

Check the latest Japan vs France betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is a France win.

Our long shot is the first half points market, with the Over (O 31.5) having value. Both teams have history in starting fast, with France definitely likely to want to impose and make their mark early.