Two of the three teams without a win in the Nations Championship will meet, with Australia hosting Italy in the final round of the Southern Hemisphere series of the tournament.

Both have encountered their challenges so far, but this upcoming clash on Saturday, July 18, at 20:10 AEST in Perth could be a golden opportunity for one of them to kick on.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Australia to win

Value bet: Australia in 1st Half Betting

Long shot: Australia to win by 1-7

Betting Preview

Australia will be aiming to improve considerably on their first two games when they face Italy, having been narrowly beaten by Ireland (33-31) and then destroyed by France last week (42-26); each in their own backyard.

Italy haven’t had any success in the tournament so far, either, losing to Japan (27-10) and then to New Zealand (47-17).

The Wallabies led France at one point in the match (having led at half-time against Ireland), but then blew it, suffering their sixth straight defeat; their ninth in 10 Tests. Departing coach Joe Schmidt will definitely want to see his team improve in his final game in charge.

Carter Gordon is certain to miss another week after his injury against Ireland, but Ben Donaldson could return. Harry McLaughlin-Phillips has been called up and could make his debut, while Declan Meredith could feature once again after making his debut at No. 10 against France as the replacement for Gordon and Donaldson.

Italy will be without star Niccolo Cannone after he was handed a four-game suspension for a headbutt on New Zealand’s Cam Roigard last week. Head coach Gonzalo Quesada will need to see his team step up in the absence of his star.

Andrea Zambonin could have a big impact on the game, and Australia are going to have to handle his power and high work rate. Stephen Varney’s game management and territorial strategy could be a major difference, should Italy be able to control parts of the game.

Betting Markets to Watch

Australia have been made huge pre-match moneyline favourites to win this encounter. Still, there may be better value in Italy winning. They have won the last two meetings, meaning they have a chance to either extend that streak; if the Wallabies beat the Azzurri, it will be the first time since 2018.

With this in mind, we think there’s value in the handicap, with the Italy (+16.5) offering a good price. Neither side has been that great in this tournament so far, and while the Azzurri were decimated by the All Blacks, the Wallabies have struggled to close games out.

Alternative value may be in the 1st Half Match Betting market, in the Australia outcome. The Wallabies have led both games at halftime so far.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Australia vs Italy betting odds at Sportsbet.

We think the most likely outcome is a Australia win.

A long shot is the Australia to win by 1-7 bet in the margin victory market. The Wallabies’ failure to close out games could see the margin they win by be closer than any pre-match odds suggest.