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Turnbull Stakes Race Prediction and Odds

SB Staff|01/10/2026|
Turnbull Stakes (TAB) Prediction and Best Bets

 

Forming part of Turnbull Stakes Day, the feature race is the Turnbull Stakes.

The race is the 8th of the 10 to be held on the day, with the meet scheduled for Saturday, October 3, at Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne.

Let’s take a look at some of the best horses in the race…

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Sir Delius to win

Value bet: Aeliana each-way

Long shot: Cosmic Crusader each-way

 

Betting Preview

 

The Turnbull Stakes is a Group 1 race that is contested over a distance of 2,000 metres and has a prize purse of $750,000. It is open to horses that are 4 years old and older, and is run under set-weights-and-penalties conditions.

While this one will not top the list, it is worth seeing how it compares to Australia's richest horse races.

It’s one of the key spring form races because it brings together horses preparing for the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup.

The Turnbull is often called a “form reference” for the rest of the Melbourne spring. Recent editions have featured horses who later won major spring races.

Verry Elleegant won the Caulfield Cup after her 2020 Turnbull; Incentivise won both races in 2021; and Gold Trip won the Melbourne Cup in 2022 after finishing fifth in the Turnbull.

In 2024, Turnbull winner Via Sistina went on to win the Cox Plate, while Turnbull runners Duke De Sessa and Knight’s Choice later won the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup respectively.

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

This year’s race will feature the winner of last year’s edition: Sir Delius. Somewhat unsurprisingly, he has been named the early favourite in the betting odds to retain his crown.

In the 2025 Turnbull, he beat Antino by 1¾ lengths. Having started from a wide barrier, jockey Craig Williams settled him around midfield, but the horse became boxed in before Williams found a way out in the straight. 

Sir Delius then accelerated past Antino and drew clear.

This year he comes in off a fourth in the 1,600m Makybe Diva Stakes, with trainer Gai Waterhouse saying he is “spot on” and expecting him to improve over the longer distance.

The main question, though, is whether he is still building towards the Cox Plate later in the spring.

Aeliana is considered his main challenger.

Her latest run was a close second to Autumn Glow in the Group 2 Seven Stakes at Randwick on September 19. She had also finished second to Autumn Glow in the Group 1 Verry Elleegant Stakes in February.

Those performances mean she’s certainly in form, and the Turnbull’s 2,000m should suit her better than the shorter races. The main concern is that she has yet to prove she can beat the very best in this campaign.

She is one of five horses trained by Chris Waller in the race. If you are new to each-way markets, it is worth understanding how horse betting works before placing your bets.

 

Our Prediction

 

Check the latest horse racing betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is for Sir Delius to retain the Turnbull Stakes, with Aeliana our value bet.

If you are looking for selections beyond this feature, you can find today's racing tips across the rest of the Flemington card and other meetings.

Our long shot is Cosmic Crusader as an each-way bet. 

Trained by Andrea Leek, he is a lot better than his price suggests, despite the defeat to Birdman in the Underwood Stakes by 1¾ lengths.

He was the favourite over 1,800m, but with this being 2,000m, the extra 200m could be in his favour.

1. Half Yours (14)
W: 59.0kgF: 9444x6
J: Jamie Melham
T: T & C McEvoy
Win
Place
2. Sir Delius (9)
W: 59.0kgF: x331x4
J: Craig Williams
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
Win
Place
3. Light Infantry Man (3)
W: 58.0kgF: 415x48
J: Harry Coffey
T: C Maher
Win
Place
4. Cosmic Crusader (4)
W: 58.0kgF: 2x1132
J: William Pike
T: Andrea Leek
Win
Place
5. Aeliana (2)
W: 57.0kgF: 211x02
J: Damian Lane
T: C J Waller
Win
Place

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