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US Open Prediction and Betting Odds

16/06/2026|SB Staff|Golf Tips & Predictions
US Open Prediction

 

The PGA Tour’s third major of the season is almost upon us, with the U.S. Open set to see the world’s best compete for one of the biggest prizes in golf.

Emanating from Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, N.Y., the action will get underway on Thursday, June 18, with the first tee from around 20:45 AEST. A winner will be declared in the early hours of Monday, June 22.

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Scheffler in the each-way to win

Value bet: Rahm as an each-way to win

Long shot: Koepka as an each-way to win

 

Betting Preview

 

Shinnecock Hills is a par-70, roughly 7,400-yard inland-links style course that plays firm, fast, and heavily influenced by coastal winds. Fairways are relatively wide by U.S. Open standards, but they tighten precisely where modern drives land, and any miss bleeds into thick rough, fescue, or heather, immediately turning birdie looks into “scramble for bogey” territory.

The greens are elevated, sloping, and contoured poa/bent surfaces that will run quick, but are expected to be set up just shy of unplayable, placing a premium on controlling trajectory, spin, and exact landing spots into small, unforgiving targets.

The routing constantly changes direction, so players face frequent shifts in wind over successive holes, which tests their ability to adjust club selection, shot shape, and flight window on the fly.

Around the greens, closely mown run-offs, deep bunkers, and gnarly rough demand superb touch and imagination; poor short games will be brutally exposed, especially when players are short-sided.

Overall, the course challenges players to be disciplined off the tee, elite with their irons, and resilient in their scrambling, rewarding patient, strategic golf and punishing overly aggressive lines or any lapse in focus over four days.

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

Scottie Scheffler is the clear favourite in the golf betting market. He is the No.1 golfer in the world, is very dominant tee‑to‑green and is patient and strategic.

He is yet to win this major, being the only one he needs to complete the Grand Slam. His best finish was tied-second in 2022.

Rory McIlroy has the length to handle 7,400 yards but, more importantly, has historically excelled in windy and links‑like conditions when driving it well, giving him a chance as high as anyone if the driver behaves and he is on his game.

Jon Rahm offers outside value, as he is another past U.S. Open winner whose heavy ball flight, strong iron play, and short‑game grit are tailormade for a demanding, windy major where pars are gold.

If you want even longer value, Brooks Koepka could be worth exploring.

He won the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock, and while his recent performances would suggest he is way off from competing, he has won five majors in his career. However, he doesn’t have a single top 10 over his last 12 major tournament starts.

 

Our Prediction

 

Check the latest US Open golf betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our golf tips and predictions point to Scheffler as the likely winner. He has consistently been one of the best players, and his game is suited to this course.

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