Pakistan vs Sri Lanka 1st Test Prediction and Betting Odds

Playing as part of the ICC World Test Championship, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will engage in two Test matches, both to be played in Pakistan and both worth a look in the Test match odds.

The 1st Test will take place at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, with the action getting underway on Monday, November 9. The first ball is scheduled for 15:30 AEDT.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Pakistan to win

Value bet: Shakeel to Reach 50+ Runs 1st innings

Long shot: Shakeel to Reach 100+ Runs 1st innings

Betting Preview

Pakistan have made some pretty substantial changes, leaving out Shan Masood, Abdullah Shafique and Mohammad Rizwan, alongside established home spinners Sajid Khan and Noman Ali.

So, much will fall on the shoulders of Babar Azam, who will captain a squad featuring uncapped batters Mohammad Taha, Mohammad Suleman and Sameer Minhas. Salman Ali Agha returns after scoring a domestic triple-century.

Mohammad Abbas and Razaullah were the only seamers in the initial squad. Without Sajid Khan and Noman Ali, Pakistan cannot rely on the same established spin combination that has shaped their recent home selection strategy.

Sri Lanka will be without Pathum Nissanka, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Lahiru Udara will replace him, having initially missed selection despite a great knock of 188 against West Indies in June.

Captain Kusal Mendis has Dinesh Chandimal, Dhananjaya de Silva and Kamindu Mendis available, offering experience that could prove differential against a young and inexperienced Pakistan team. Asitha Fernando, Lahiru Kumara and Prabath Jayasuriya are all included as bowlers.

Rawalpindi has produced both flat batting tracks and sharply turning surfaces, so it could be touch and go on how things turn out and the decisions made at the coin toss. Additionally, Rawalpindi can be exceptionally good for batting.

High scores have been regularly seen when the pitch is flat. While Rawalpindi is not among the biggest cricket stadiums in the world, a flat deck there can still serve up the kind of big totals that catch the eye.

Betting Markets to Watch

Pakistan have had mixed fortunes at Rawalpindi, and their new-look top order could be worth keeping an eye on. That said, they have an experienced batting spine around Babar, Saud and Salman, and with home advantage, that could be enough to see them through the 1st Test .

Still, Sri Lanka have enough established Test players to punish an unsettled XI, and could take advantage.

The biggest thing will be on how well the pitch plays, as the first innings could be the most important of the match. Pakistan are rebuilding, and Sri Lanka are missing an important opener.

With so much hinging on that first innings, newer readers may want a refresher on how Test matches work before weighing up the markets.

Saud Shakeel could have value to score 50+ runs for Pakistan, as he has strong history in Rawalpindi. However, his recent Test form isn’t something to lean into. He’s only knocked one half century in his last five Tests, with scores of 0, 15, 8, 6, 5, 14, 16, 97, 43 and 29.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Pakistan vs Sri Lanka betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is a likely Pakistan win, with our value bet in Shakeel to reach 50+ runs in the 1st innings.

As a long shot, we’re sticking with the same batter, but to make a 100. He scored 141 against Bangladesh and 134 against England at Rawalpindi in 2024, with the 134 just his second Test hundred. His form is the biggest concern, but it’s why there’s value in it.