Round 23 of the AFL season sees a cracker of a Saturday night clash at the MCG between two old rivals looking to secure their positions as we head towards finals footy.

Hawthorn went to south-east Queensland with grand designs on announcing themselves as a premiership contender and left with more questions than answers.

Brisbane humbled the Hawks 125-58 at the Gabba the heaviest defeat of their season and one that dropped them to two wins and four losses against the current top six.

Sam Mitchell's side now sits with their top four spot under pressure heading into the final fortnight. It was also the first match this season in which star small forward Nick Watson failed to hit the scoreboard.

Collingwood, meanwhile, keep finding ways to win.

The Pies sealed their Wildcard spot with a 117-98 win over West Coast on Sunday and Nick Daicos produced one of the best performances of his career; 39 disposals, 12 score involvements and a goal, earning the coaches' MVP nod.

The Magpies sit eighth, but Craig McRae is doing it with a medical room that would sink most clubs. Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliott, Tew Jiath, Reef McInnes and Oscar Steene are all done for the year, with Jeremy Howe, Brayden Maynard, Pat Lipinski and Harry Perryman also unavailable.

Scott Pendlebury and Jordan De Goey are both being assessed after missing the trip west and will be vital inclusions if they’re feeling up to it.

These sides couldn't be separated in Round 8, playing out a 93-93 draw at the MCG after Dylan Moore slotted a set shot following the siren.

The depleted Pies have their tails up and the Hawks have plenty to prove. We’re in for another belter at the G.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Round 23 prediction and preview below.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Match Predictions and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

The Pies are going OK. Make no mistake.

Injuries and personnel problems have piled up all year but with Daicos in the side they always have a chance. The oft forgotten Josh Daicos was immense against West Coast too, leading the attack from defence in a compelling return to form.

Both are sensational performers for the black and white.

The Hawks were humbled in a big way last week by the Lions. Conceding 125 points at the Gabba was not the statement they went north to make and with Conor Nash now confirmed out for the season, the midfield rotation gets thinner heading into September.

On paper, Hawthorn still looks the superior side. Barrass, Sicily and Hardwick remain one of the better defensive units going around, and the forward mix of Gunston, Lewis, Chol and Watson has more scoreboard ceiling than what Collingwood can put up.

But as we saw in the Round 8 draw between these clubs, you have to beat Collingwood. They will not beat themselves.

Expect a response from the brown and gold, without it being comfortable.

Head-to-head prediction: Hawthorn Hawks by 21 points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

Nick the Wizard to open the account.

Watson was held goalless for the first time all season against Brisbane, which tells you how consistently he's found the scoreboard through 2026.

Hawthorn's forward line needs the wizard to produce some magic after a week where their attack was simply out-enthused.

With Collingwood's defensive stocks stretched by the absences of Moore, Howe, Maynard and Perryman, there's space for a small forward who can find space.

Betting tip: Nick Watson.

Most Disposals Prediction

Nick Daicos, every week, still.

The AFL’s favourite son added another dominant performance to his already stellar 2026 campaign, dominating the field yet again vs West Coast.

He’s undoubtedly been the best player in the league this season and is destined for a Brownlow in just a few short weeks.

There are special players across this competition, but Daicos’ consistency is what sets him apart; his volume simply doesn't drop off regardless of opponent, venue or how depleted the side around him gets.

With 28, 36, 39, 35 and 39 in his last five starts; Daicos is a shoo in to top the disposal count again this Saturday.

Betting tip: Nick Daicos.

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Jai Newcombe 25+ disposals, Mabior Chol 2+ goals, Hawthorn to win by 1-39 points, Jack Gunston 3+ goals.

Odds are subject to change.*

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Predicted Teams

Hawthorn Hawks Predicted Team List

FB: Blake Hardwick, Tom Barrass, James Sicily

HB: Josh Battle, Karl Amon, Jarman Impey

C: Massimo D'Ambrosio, Will Day, Harry Morrison

HF: Jack Ginnivan, Mabior Chol, Dylan Moore

FF: Jack Gunston, Mitch Lewis, Nick Watson

FOLL: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Josh Ward

I/C: Josh Weddle, Ned Reeves, Cam Mackenzie, Connor Macdonald, Sam Butler

Collingwood Magpies Predicted Team List

FB: Noah Howes, Liam Puncher, Billy Frampton

HB: Sam Swadling, Dan Houston, Isaac Quaynor

C: Jack Crisp, Edward Allan, Roan Steele

HF: William Hayes, Lachlan Sullivan, Beau McCreery

FF: Lachie Schultz, Tim Membrey, Daniel McStay

FOLL: Darcy Cameron, Josh Daicos, Nick Daicos

I/C: Steele Sidebottom, Angus Anderson, Ned Long, Harvey Harrison, Charlie West

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Match Details

Date: Saturday, August 15, 2026

First Bounce: 7:40pm AEST

Location: MCG, Melbourne

How to Watch: Fox Footy/Kayo Sports