The AFL finals picture is coming into focus, and it's squinting hard at the Gabba this Friday night.

Brisbane Lions host the Hawthorn Hawks in what amounts to a straight shootout for top-four positioning, with the stakes as high as they've been all season as both clubs charge toward September.

The Lions are licking their wounds after an ugly 154–78 capitulation against Carlton on Saturday, a result that dropped them to fifth and out of the double chance. Injuries to Ryan Lester, Hugh McCluggage, Keidean Coleman and Logan Morris only rubbed salt into the wound, leaving Chris Fagan with a selection headache he could certainly do without.

A win here puts Brisbane right back in contention for a home final. A loss, and the Lions could find themselves swallowed up by seventh-placed Geelong, who sit just four points behind.

Meanwhile, Sam Mitchell's Hawks are humming. A composed 99-83 win over the Kangaroos in Launceston on Saturday kept them in third, with Nick Watson's five-goal masterclass pushing his season tally to 52, a figure that has him breathing down Charlie Curnow's neck in the Coleman Medal race.

Teammate Jack Gunston sits fourth on 49, making Hawthorn arguably the most dangerous forward line in the competition right now.

When these sides last met, in the final round of the 2025 home-and-away season, Brisbane edged it 89–79 at the Gabba.

This Friday feels like an entirely different beast and with a top-four finish on the line, this is anyone’s game. 

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights, check out our Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Round 22 prediction and preview below.

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Prediction and Betting Tips

Head-to-Head Prediction

A clash of the contenders here in southeast Queensland.

The Hawks are rolling and feeling good after a Nick Watson-inspired win over the Roos in Launceston, whilst Brisbane will be roaring after copping a hammering at the hands of the surging Blues.

The Lions have displayed defensive woes for most of the season, even despite winning seven straight before the Blues debacle. It's something we truly believe they can rectify with an attitude adjustment, and these Hawks will test that theory big time with their crisp ball movement and dangerous forward line.

Jarman Impey is airborne and he'll need some attention from McKenna at half-forward. Josh Dunkley will look to nullify Jai Newcombe where possible, and Dayne Zorko's return to the fold is badly needed if the Lions are to get back to the defensive pressure that made them premiers.

This'll be an epic. The winner likely picks up the huge prize of confidence going into the finals and, in all likelihood, a top-four berth alongside it.

Head-to-head prediction: Brisbane Lions by eight points.

First Goal Scorer Prediction

The Wizard. If you’re tipping here, you genuinely can't go past Nick Watson to kick the first one at the Gabba.

Watson is third in the Coleman Medal standings with 52 goals and if he keeps this up, Curnow won't be safe at the top.

He arrives in Brisbane in the form of his life and if Hawthorn win the first clearance of the night, expect Watson to be the man on the end of it.

Betting tip: Nick Watson.

Most Disposals Prediction

It's Will Ashcroft in a Brisbane win or Jai Newcombe in a Hawthorn win.

We're tipping the premiers to get home in this one, on the back of a big performance from Will Ashcroft. Ashcroft has been in stellar form in 2026 and showing no signs of slowing down.

Back the Lions, back the kid.

Betting tip: Will Ashcroft.

AFL Same Game Multi Tips

Betting tip: Nick Watson 3+ goals, OVER total match points line, Will Ashcroft 30+ disposals, Lions to win 1–39, Jai Newcombe UNDER disposals.

Odds are subject to change.*

Brisbane Lions Predicted Team List

FB: Conor McKenna, Harris Andrews, Noah Answerth

HB: Darcy Wilmot, Eric Hipwood, Darcy Fort

C: Zac Bailey, Dayne Zorko, Jarrod Berry

HF: Oscar Allen, Will Ashcroft, Charlie Cameron

FF: Kai Lohmann, Cam Rayner, Sam Draper

FOLL: Levi Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Neale

I/C: Jaspa Fletcher, Bruce Reville, Deven Robertson, Brandon Starcevich

Hawthorn Hawks Predicted Team List

FB: James Sicily, Tom Barrass, Blake Hardwick

HB: Jarman Impey, Josh Weddle, Josh Battle

C: Harry Morrison, Will Day, Massimo D'Ambrosio

HF: Dylan Moore, Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan

FF: Nick Watson, Aidan Schubert, Jack Gunston

FOLL: Lloyd Meek, Jai Newcombe, Josh Ward

I/C: Bailey Macdonald, Cam Mackenzie, Finn Maginness, Oliver Greeves

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Match Details

Date: Friday, August 7, 2026.

First Bounce: 7:40pm AEST

Location: Gabba, Brisbane

How to Watch: Fox Footy/Kayo Sports