LUCK IS BACK (9) is the one to beat after going under by only a head at this track last start when sent out favourite. His previous fourth behind Sunday's Serenade was sound and he has the recent consistency to justify top billing. EXCEED THE LIMIT (1) was also beaten a neck here last start and rates strongly on recent form, with his late work suggesting he is close to another win despite carrying the top weight. VERMILION TEMPEST (8) was within a length at this venue after being bumped and has Caspar Fownes' strong track profile in his corner, but seven previous starts around 1650m without a placing keeps the query alive. FLYING BOOM (5) brings the best last-start Sha Tin closing effort, beaten half a length by Jolly Brilliant, and his one win and three placings from seven starts at the distance make him a genuine danger if he handles this venue first time.