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UFC Freedom 250: Full Card Prediction and Betting Odds

12/06/2026|SB Staff| UFC Tips & Predictions
ufc freedom 250

 

It’s time to see if the hype has all been worth it, as UFC Freedom 250 is set to take place.

Happening from the White House, Washington, the action will get underway inside the Octagon on the south lawn on Monday, June 15, from 10:00 AEST.

 

Quick Picks

 

Our pick: Topuria to win

Value bet: Pereira to win by TKO/KO

Long shot: Nickal by submission in the first round

 

Betting Preview

 

Let’s dive deep into the full card:

 

Ilia Topuria (17-0) vs Justin Gaethje (27-5)

Alex Pereira (13-3) vs Ciryl Gane (13-2)

Sean O'Malley (19-3) vs Aiemann Zahabi (14-2)

Derrick Lewis (29-13) vs Josh Hokit (9-0)

Mauricio Ruffy (13-2) vs Michael Chandler (23-10)

Bo Nickal (8-1) vs Kyle Daukaus (17-4)

Diego Lopes (27-8) vs Steve Garcia (19-5)

 

The fight between Topuria and Gaethje is for the UFC Lightweight title, while the contest between Pereira and Gane is for the UFC Interim Heavyweight Championship.

 

Betting Markets to Watch

 

We’ve listed our top predictions for the full card below, with the markets worth watching.

Topuria has elite pocket boxing, tight defence, and big power, plus a serious grappling threat if he chooses to wrestle.

Gaethje is always live as an underdog because of leg kicks and pressure, but his durability has clearly started to crack, and he takes long periods in the pocket where Topuria’s counters should land clean.

This makes Topuria a likely winner by TKO/KO in our view, especially with his moneyline odds very short.

The Pereira-Gane clash has all the ingredients to be a close contest. Our view is that Pereira edges it, as the likelihood of Pereira finding a left hook or right cross that hurts Gane is high.

Gane shows defensive lapses under pressure and on the cage, and does not threaten with offensive wrestling. A late KO/TKO rather than a quick blitz feels more likely for Pereira.

O’Malley’s length, speed, and shot variety (knees, uppercuts, kicks) are a problem for Zahabi, who prefers a measured boxing‑first game and doesn’t push a ton of takedown volume.

Zahabi is smart defensively and has some counter power, but over three rounds he likely gets stuck at the end of O’Malley’s jab and kicks.

O’Malley to win by TKO/KO offers better value than his moneyline.

Hokit offers value to beat Lewis by TKO/KO , as he brings strong wrestling and physicality with a developing striking game. Lewis is a KO-or-bust heavyweight at this point, so a finish is likely.

Ruffy to beat Chandler by TKO/KO has value, as 13 of his 15 previous pro MMA fights have ended this way, and 14 of them did not go the distance.

He is a sharp, technical striker with youth and cardio on his side.

Nickal enters the fight in positive form, winning five of his last six. He has elite wrestling, fast entries, and increasingly aggressive jiu‑jitsu hunting subs from dominant positions.

Daukaus is a good grappler in his own right and more experienced overall, but he’s likely the weaker wrestler. Nickal by submission in the first round offers value, as four of Daukaus' last five UFC fights have ended in Round 1.

Garcia offers value as an underdog, having won each of his last seven UFC fights. In each of his last five UFC fights against younger opponents, he has won by KO/TKO . Eight of his last nine UFC fights haven’t gone the distance, either.

Ilia Topuria
Justin Gaethje

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