Serghei Spivac versus Vitor Petrino is the co-main at the upcoming UFC Fight Night from California this weekend.

The two will face off in a heavyweight contest inside the Octagon on Sunday, August 23, with the card starting at 07:00 AEST.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Petrino to win

Value bet: Petrino by decision

Long shot: fight to go the distance

Tale of the Tape

Spivac is a grappling-first heavyweight who is very measured when on his feet. However, the Moldovan fighter is at his most dangerous when he can get to a body lock, single or double-leg, or a trip.

He chains takedowns well, settles into heavy top control, and uses ground-and-pound to open submissions.

He also has a 59.3% UFC heavyweight takedown accuracy, which is among the best.

Petrino is definitely the more balanced and compact fighter. The Brazilian is a power striker who tends to fight patiently at range, but with a real wrestling game rather than being purely a puncher.

He has been very solid on defence in the past, absorbing only 2.8 significant strikes per minute, and his 80.8% takedown defence rate could be huge for this contest.

How do the two compare? Spivac’s figures are first…

• Age - 31 vs 28
• Height - 6'3" (190cm) vs 6'2" (188cm)
• Stance - Orthodox vs Orthodox
• Record - 18-6-0 vs 14-2-0
• KO Record - 7 vs 8

Betting Preview

How have they performed in their last five fights?

Spivac's last five fights:

• Ante Delija - Win (UD, 3) - Feb 2026
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta - Loss (UD, 3) - Jun 2025
• Jailton Almeida - Loss (TKO, 1) - Jan 2025
• Marcin Tybura - Win (Sub, 1) - Aug 2024
• Ciryl Gane - Loss (TKO, 2) - Sep 2023

Petrino’s last five fights:

• Steven Asplund - Win (UD, 3) - Mar 2026
• Thomas Petersen - Win (TKO, 3) - Oct 2025
• Austen Lane - Win (Sub, 1) - Jul 2025
• Dustin Jacoby - Loss (TKO, 3) - Dec 2024
• Anthony Smith - Loss (Sub, 1) - May 2024

Betting Markets to Watch

The co-main event sees the Petrino as the early favourite in the moneyline. The South American’s defensive skill and ability to stop takedown attempts should come into play in this encounter, limiting Spivac and highlighting why he is the favourite.

But a close, three-round tactical fight is likely, suggesting there will be value in the fight going the distance , with Petrino winning by decision the most probable outcome.

There’s value to be had across these markets separately, with the odds appearing to favour an end in regulation by KO/TKO.

Again, there’s value in the Vitor Petrino to Win by Decision in the Round Betting market. Although it will offer the shortest odds of all outcomes, it still has value worth exploring.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Spivac vs Petrino betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is that Petrino is the likely winner, with a decision victory offering value .

We think there’s value in the fight to go the distance market, as we think a close fight is likely due to their competitive nature, despite the odds suggesting otherwise.