UFC Fight Night this weekend takes place in Sacramento, California, with Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues being the headline bout.

The pair will clash inside the Octagon as two of the top middleweights in the promotion, with the bout scheduled for Sunday, August 23, with the card beginning at 07:00 AEST.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Hernandez to win

Value bet: Hernandez by submission

Long shot: fight to go the distance

Tale of the Tape

Brazilian Rodrigues’ 6'3" height versus Hernandez’s pressure-heavy entries are going to be the key contrasts between these two fighters.

Rodrigues should want a long, straight-punching fight, using jabs, rear hands, knees, and uppercuts to meet Hernandez as he changes level.

American fighter Hernandez, meanwhile, is the more persistent wrestler and submission threat, and he will look to turn the fight into clinch and fence-heavy exchanges where he can chain takedown attempts, ride position, and drain Rodrigues through repeated mat returns.

Rodrigues’ best path is to hold the centre, keep his back away from the fence, punish early entries with power, and create the kind of volatile striking exchanges where his heavier hands can matter before Hernandez’s pace takes over.

How do the two compare? Hernandez’s figures are first…

• Age - 32 vs 34
• Height - 6'0" (183cm) vs 6'3" (191cm)
• Stance - Orthodox vs Orthodox
• Record - 15-3-0 vs 19-6-0
• KO Record - 3 vs 11

Betting Preview

How have they performed in their last five fights?

Hernandez's last five fights:

• Sean Strickland - Loss (TKO, 3) - Feb 2026
• Roman Dolidze - Win (Sub, 4) - Aug 2025
• Brendan Allen - Win (UD, 3) - Feb 2025
• Michel Pereira - Win (TKO, 5) - Oct 2024
• Roman Kopylov - Win (Sub, 2) - Feb 2024

Rodrigues’s last five fights:

• Brunno Ferreira - Win (TKO, 1) - Mar 2026
• Roman Kopylov - Win (UD, 3) - Nov 2025
• Jack Hermansson - Win (TKO, 1) - Jun 2025
• Jared Cannonier - Loss (TKO, 4) - Feb 2025
• Christian Leroy Duncan - Win (UD, 3) - Jul 2024

Betting Markets to Watch

Hernandez currently edges the pre-match moneyline odds, although the difference is only marginal.

This is likely due to the market expecting him to control where the fight happens more consistently than Rodrigues can force his preferred striking fight.

Hernandez’s wrestling pace, sustained top control and five-round-friendly fight style give him more ways to win rounds, whereas Rodrigues’ clearest edge is damaging Hernandez early in open space.

Still, Rodrigues is super dangerous with his power, which is why the margin is small.

There’s more value in the method of victory market, and Hernandez by submission offers value as he has won five of his nine UFC fights this way, with a KO/TKO not his usual route.

For additional value, the Anthony Hernandez to win by Submission in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 also has good value.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Hernandez vs Rodrigues betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is that Hernandez is the likely winner, with a submission victory offering value .

If you’re looking for a long shot, the fight to go the distance has good value. The bout is likely to be competitive, which could see it go the full five rounds.