The Englishman will still represent a huge challenge for the home favourite, with Kavanagh ranked as the #30 in the UFC flyweight weight rankings. He also enters the Octagon with a decent record, but Moreno is an accomplished fighter with plenty of experience.
What will happen when these two step inside the cage on Sunday, March 1, from 09:00 AEDT? Read on for our Moreno vs Kavanagh betting predictions…
Quick Picks
Our pick: Moreno to win
Value bet: Fight won't go the distance
Long shot: Moreno to win by submission
Tale of the Tape
Moreno has had to deal with a late opponent change after Asu Almabayev withdrew. However, he is experienced enough to adjust the strategy and go on the offensive when he steps in with Kavanagh. If anything, the late addition may impact the Englishman more, as he hasn't had the same preparation time for this bout.
Moreno is a former two-time UFC flyweight champion known for relentless pressure, high-volume striking, and elite grappling with 11 submission wins. Kavanagh is a rising striker with knockout power (4 KOs), 2-1 in UFC, but coming off a stoppage loss (his first) and short-notice travel to a high altitude.
Here's how the two compare, with Moreno's figures first…
- Age - 32 vs 26
- Height - 5'7" (170cm) vs 5'4" (163cm)
- Stance - Orthodox vs Orthodox
- Record - 23-9-2 vs 9-1-0
- KO Record - 5 vs 4
Betting Preview
How have they performed in their last five fights?
Moreno's last five fights:
- Tatsuro Taira - Loss (TKO, 2) - Dec 2025
- Steve Erceg - Win (UD, 5) - Mar 2025
- Amir Albazi - Win (UD, 5) - Nov 2024
- Brandon Royval - Loss (SD, 5) - Feb 2024
- Alexandre Pantoja - Loss (SD, 5) - Jul 2023
Kavanagh's last five fights:
- Charles Johnson - Loss (TKO, 2) - Aug 2025
- Felipe dos Santos - Win (UD, 3) - Mar 2025
- Jose Ochoa - Win (UD, 3) - Nov 2024
- An Tuan Ho - Win (TKO, 1) - Aug 2024
- Shawn Marcos da Silva - Win (UD, 3) - Mar 2024
Betting Markets to Watch
The UFC betting odds have Moreno as the favourite heading into this bout. Given the low price being offered, we think there is value to be had by exploring the other markets available.
Moreno's edges in experience, reach, and acclimation to Mexico City make him a strong play, and we think the altitude will play a role in ending this fight early. We think there's value in Morena winning by submission, given his 11 wins by this method.
In addition, we think there is value in the total rounds market. With this fight scheduled for five rounds, and that there could be value in a stoppage, we think this fight will not reach the fifth round. Kavanagh gasses post-Round 2, and we think that could mean a potential Round 3 finish.
Our Prediction
Check the latest Moreno vs Kavanagh betting odds at Sportsbet.
We think Moreno is the likely winner of this fight, in line with the odds being offered.
Our long shot is the submission win as the method of victory, but we still think there's a lot of value in it given the circumstances around this fight. If you're new to betting on UFC, exploring methods of victory markets can offer excellent value.