Neither man will come into their bout in the best shape regarding recent form, but the Mexican does have a finishing threat that will make him a very dangerous opponent for the Brazilian.
Will he be able to use it to his advantage when the pair step inside the Octagon? Read on to find out what we think…
Quick Picks
Our pick: Chairez to win
Value bet: Chairez to win by submission
Long shot: Bunes to win by submission
Tale of the Tape
This will be a classic grappler-versus-striker bout. Chairez is a relentless grappler who hunts finishes opportunistically, but is recently coming off a unanimous-decision loss. Bunes has shown signs of excellent striking accuracy in his recent fights, while he has also shown crafty technical striking and takedown attempts.
We've compared the two fighters below, with Chairez's figures first…
- Age - 30 vs 36
- Height - 5'7" (170cm) vs 5'7" (170cm)
- Stance - Orthodox vs Orthodox
- Record - 12-6-0 vs 14-8-0
- KO Record - 4 vs 3
Betting Preview
How have they performed in their last five fights?
Chairez's last five fights:
- CJ Vergara - Win (Sub, 1) - Mar 2025
- Joshua Van - Loss (UD, 3) - Sep 2024
- Daniel Lacerda - Win (Sub, 1) - Feb 2024
- Daniel Lacerda - No Contest (1) - Sep 2023
- Tatsuro Taira - Loss (UD, 3) - Jul 2023
Bunes's last five fights:
- Rafael Estevam - Loss (UD, 3) - Aug 2025
- Jose Johnson - Win (Sub, 1) - Jan 2025
- Joshua Van - Loss (TKO, 2) - Jan 2024
- Yuma Horiuchi - Win (TKO, 1) - Jan 2023
- Wascar Cruz - Win (SD, 3) - Jul 2022
Betting Markets to Watch
The value worth exploring lies in the submission market, with Chairez appearing most likely to record it. The Mexican is somewhat of a submission specialist, having won eight of his fights by this method.
However, Brunes has nine victories by this method, making him a long shot to win by this method, as Chairez has lost twice in this way.
With this in mind, we think there is value in the fight not going the distance, with a stoppage the most likely. Both men are capable of recording a stoppage.
Under 1.5 or 2.5 rounds offers strong value given both's history of early finishes or chaos. If you're new to betting on UFC, understanding these round totals markets can be a great starting point.
Our Prediction
Check the latest Chairez vs Bunes betting odds at Sportsbet.
We think that Chairez is the most likely winner of this fight, capitalising on the crowd support he is likely to have. We think the value bet is in Chairez to win by submission, with our long shot being for Bunes to do the same thing.
Both fighters compete in the UFC flyweight weight division, where submission finishes are common due to the technical grappling skills at this level. For more UFC fight predictions across the card, check out our full preview.