The two will headline the event, which is scheduled to begin at 07:00 AEST on Sunday, May 17.

Quick Picks

• Our pick: Allen to win
• Value bet: Fight to go the distance
• Long shot: Allen by TKO/KO

Tale of the Tape

Allen is a compact southpaw who fights in a measured, technical way, leaning on clean boxing, smart shot selection, and solid defence rather than all-out brawling.

He typically works behind straight lefts and tight combinations, using good head movement and footwork to slip shots and counter instead of standing square in the pocket for long stretches.

Costa is a taller, rangier southpaw who brings a much more overtly aggressive, kick-heavy game rooted in his Muay Thai background.

He likes to operate at a higher pace, throwing a broad mix of leg, body, and head kicks, then layering in multi-punch bursts once he has read an opponent's reactions and backing them toward the fence.

How do the two compare? Allen's figures are first...

• Age: 32 vs 29
• Height: 5'8" (173cm) vs 5'10" (178cm)
• Stance: Southpaw vs Southpaw
• Record: 20-4-0 vs 26-7-0
• KO Record: 7 vs 9

Betting Preview

How have they performed in their last five fights?

Allen's last five fights:

• Jean Silva - Loss (UD, 3) - Jan 2026
• Giga Chikadze - Win (UD, 3) - Jul 2024
• Movsar Evloev - Loss (UD, 3) - Jan 2024
• Max Holloway - Loss (UD, 5) - Apr 2023
• Calvin Kattar - Win (TKO, 2) - Oct 2022

Costa's last five fights:

• Dan Ige - Win (TKO, 1) - Feb 2026
• Morgan Charrière - Win (TKO, 1) - Dec 2025
• Julian Erosa - Win (UD, 3) - May 2025
• Christian Rodriguez - Win (UD, 3) - Mar 2025
• Andre Fili - Win (Sub, 1) - Feb 2025

Betting Markets to Watch

Despite having lost three of his last five fights, including his most recent, Allen is considered the slight favourite in the UFC betting odds.

For some, this could mean there's value in the Brazilian as a perceived underdog, given that he has improved significantly since his UFC debut.

However, Allen is perhaps the favourite due to his experience and fighting style. A decision win by points is the most likely, as his record is heavily decision-skewed at the UFC level: 9 of his wins are by decision, compared with fewer KOs and subs, which fits his style of measured boxing, solid defence, and using wrestling more to control than to chase finishes.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Allen vs Costa betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is that Allen will likely win, with the value in a decision victory. If you're looking for more UFC tips, we've got you covered.

Arnold Allen by KO/TKO is another option that could be worth a long shot.

He has 7 KO/TKO wins in 20 victories (35%), and his recent stoppages of Hooker and Kattar showed that when he presses, his hand speed and shot selection can snowball quickly.

Costa has shown vulnerabilities of being hit in the past and can be stopped. For those new to betting on UFC, understanding knockout markets can offer excellent value.