UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan Prediction and Betting Odds

Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan will meet inside the Octagon as the headline bout in this week’s upcoming UFC Fight Night event.

The pair will meet in Las Vegas in a middleweight contest scheduled for Sunday, October 11, with the card beginning at 07:00 AEST. This fight won’t be for a few hours later, though.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Allen to win

Value bet: Fight to go the distance

Long shot: Allen by submission

Tale of the Tape

Allen is the more proven grappling threat, getting the takedown is the entry point. His submission work is the greater danger once the fight reaches the floor.

His UFC averages of 1.52 takedowns per 15 minutes and 41% takedown accuracy also suggest he cannot assume he will ground Duncan whenever he chooses.

Duncan attacks are not confined to straightforward boxing. His current winning run includes spinning-elbow and spinning-backfist knockouts. 

That variety makes him dangerous when opponents advance predictably, although elaborate attacks also create opportunities for a grappler to close distance.

How do the two compare? Allen’s figures are first…

• Age - 30 vs 31
• Height - 6'2" (188cm) vs 6'2" (188cm)
• Stance - Orthodox vs Switch
• Record - 27-7-0 vs 15-2-0
• KO Record - 6 vs 10

Betting Preview

How have they performed in their last five fights?

Allen's last five fights:

• Edmen Shahbazyan - Win (UD, 3) - Jun 2026
• Reinier de Ridder - Win (TKO, 4) - Oct 2025
• Marvin Vettori - Win (UD, 3) - Jul 2025
• Anthony Hernandez - Loss (UD, 3) - Feb 2025
• Nassourdine Imavov - Loss (UD, 3) - Sep 2024

Duncan’s last five fights:

• Jared Cannonier - Win (UD, 3) - Jul 2026
• Roman Dolidze - Win (UD, 3) - Mar 2026
• Marco Tulio - Win (TKO, 2) - Nov 2025
• Eryk Anders - Win (TKO, 1) - Aug 2025
• Andrey Pulyaev - Win (UD, 3) - Mar 2025

Betting Markets to Watch

In the latest UFC fight odds, Allen is the favourite in the moneyline, with his odds slightly shorter than Duncan’s. This perhaps reflects the perceived difference between the two athletes and their strengths and weaknesses inside the Octagon.

If you’re looking for more value, the fight going the distance could offer some.

Allen’s recent decision wins over Edmen Shahbazyan and Marvin Vettori show that he can win without securing a finish, while Duncan has had fights that have also gone to decisions, including his loss to Gregory Rodrigues.

The one thing that could go against a decision is that it is a five-round fight. This will require more from the pair, as their recent decision wins were after three rounds.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Allen vs Duncan betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is that Allen is the likely winner, with a decision victory most likely.

Our long shot is for Allen to win by submission. Allen has won 14 of his 27 professional victories by submission, including rear-naked chokes against Kevin Holland, Krzysztof Jotko, Bruno Silva, André Muniz and Paul Craig.

Allen could aim to close distance, securing a takedown and threatening Duncan’s back as Duncan tries to stand or escape, creating an opening for the rear-naked choke. Duncan is yet to lose by this method, which is why it’s a long shot.

For more previews like this one across the upcoming card, check out our latest UFC fight predictions.