Group A is an incredibly tough group in this year’s UEFA Nations League, with Türkiye and Italy competing alongside France and Belgium.

Italy travel to Türkiye on Tuesday, September 29, with kick-off scheduled for 04:45 AEST, in the hope of taking three valuable points. That could be the difference between staying in the group, avoiding relegation, or even qualifying for the playoff stage.

If you are new to betting on European soccer, it is worth getting across how these Nations League markets work before you dive in.

Quick Picks

Our pick: Italy win

Value bet: Italy And Draw

Long shot: Italy in the Result & Both to Score

Betting Preview

Former Italian footballer Vincenzo Montella is in charge of the Türkiye side, and had been looking for a reaction from his squad after their disappointing World Cup tournament, with no immediate test more difficult than facing Zinedine Zidane’s France team in his last Nations League match.

He’ll have hoped they had learnt something from that encounter, as they’ll face another stern test against an Italian side that has decided to try to roll back the years.

Roberto Mancini is back in charge of Italy after a former spell as boss from 2018-2023. He took charge of his first game back at the helm against Belgium.

Again, it was another game in which he would have hoped to have learnt more about his new group of players, having taken on a Belgian team that also featured many stars of the game.

His next test will be at Atatürk Spor Kompleksi, in Bursa, and will naturally be pro-Türkiye. The national team has a strong following that can be intense, something we saw in the game against France. It’s intimidating, it’s passionate and it’s something the Azzurri will have to navigate successfully if they are to come away from it with any points.

This could be a little more difficult to deal with, as Mancini opted to include several younger players than his predecessor. Gennaro Gattuso included only one player younger than 24 in his squad between June 2025 and February 2026 – Pio Esposito. Mancini, though, has included nine uncapped players, and 11 under 23.

Betting Markets to Watch

Despite the shift in squad policy, Italy have still been made the favourites. The price offered isn’t far greater than Türkiye’s, and could be reflected by the fact Italy has failed to qualify for the past three World Cups.

But they still possess quality and their recent form are likely to have tipped the odds in their favour.

Still, we think there could be better value in the ‘Italy And Draw’ Double Chance market, given the risks involved. Türkiye have typically been strong at home recently, but they have shown vulnerabilities against top nations (a 6-0) defeat to Spain in 2025).

Italy are far from the complete package and their trip can be difficult, which is why we think this market has better value than the moneyline.

The BTTS hitting offers value, as does the Over 2.5 Goals market. At home, Türkiye have managed to score 11 in their last four games.

Italy have travelled well and have scored in each of their last six road trips. It’s worth noting that the last four trips (Greece, Luxembourg, Bosnia & Herzegovina, and Moldova) all failed to hit the over, but three of Türkiye’s last five home games have done so.

Our Prediction

Check the latest Türkiye vs Italy betting odds at Sportsbet.

Our prediction is that it will be a likely win for Italy; value is in the ‘Italy And Draw’ option.

A long shot is Italy in the Result & Both to Score market for reasons outlined above.