Arsenal have not lost to Manchester City in six consecutive meetings, and they arrive at Wembley nine points clear at the top of the Premier League.

The EFL Cup Final pits the league's best defence against a City side reeling from Champions League elimination and back-to-back domestic final defeats. Something has to give, and the evidence suggests it won't be Arsenal.

• Competition: EFL Cup Final
• Venue: Wembley Stadium, London
• Date: Sunday, 22 March 2026
• Start Time: 3:30 AM AEDT (Monday 23 March)

Arsenal vs Man City Form and Head to Head

These two have played out four draws and two Arsenal wins across their last six meetings in all competitions, with City unable to beat the Gunners since early 2024. This season's Premier League clash finished 1-1 at the Emirates in September, continuing a pattern of tight, low-scoring encounters. Three of the last four league meetings have ended level.

Arsenal's current form is ominous. Mikel Arteta's side are unbeaten in five, with four wins including a 2-0 Champions League victory over Bayer Leverkusen and a clean sheet at Brighton. City, by contrast, have won just once in five.

Their Champions League exit to Real Madrid, losing 3-0 in the Bernabeu, exposed real defensive frailties. A draw with West Ham and a 2-2 with Nottingham Forest either side of that elimination hardly inspire confidence.

Gvardiol's Absence Looms Large Over City's Backline

Arsenal will be sweating on Martin Odegaard's fitness after the Norwegian picked up a knee issue, while Jurrien Timber is rated doubtful with an ankle problem. The good news for Arteta is that Leandro Trossard and Eberechi Eze are both confirmed available, giving him attacking depth regardless.

City welcomed back Erling Haaland after he was rested for the FA Cup win at Newcastle, and John Stones and Mateo Kovacic are expected to return. The glaring absence is Josko Gvardiol, ruled out for the season with a tibia fracture. Losing their first-choice left-back for a final of this magnitude is a significant blow, particularly against Arsenal's potent right-sided attacks.

Arsenal vs Man City Betting Markets

This is the first League Cup final to feature the top two sides in the Premier League simultaneously, and the markets reflect how finely balanced it could be. Arsenal are favoured, which feels right given their six-game unbeaten run against City and dominant league position.

For those looking to explore the full range of options, our Carabao Cup betting guide breaks down the key markets and strategies for this competition.

You'll find the full range of markets for this one over at Sportsbet, including match result, total goals and correct score options. Check out the latest Premier League odds to see how the bookmakers are pricing both sides.

The unders market deserves serious attention here. With Arsenal boasting the league's best defensive record (conceding roughly 22 goals in 31 Premier League games) and City managing just seven goals across their last five matches, this has all the hallmarks of a cagey cup final. Three of the last four league meetings between these sides produced two goals or fewer.

Arsenal vs Man City Prediction: Our Pick

Arsenal look the side best equipped to lift this trophy, and we fancy them to do it in a tight, low-scoring affair.

The case builds itself. Arsenal are unbeaten in six against City, carry the best defensive record in the Premier League and have a settled, confident squad riding a wave of momentum at the top of the table.

City's season is fraying at the edges. Elimination from Europe, two consecutive domestic final losses in 2024 and 2025, and now Gvardiol's season-ending injury all point to a side stretched thin.

Haaland's record of zero goals in six Wembley appearances is a quirky but relevant stat, and City's recent attacking output has been modest at best. Arsenal have kept clean sheets in three of their last six matches, and their defensive structure is built to contain exactly the kind of threat City pose. Those wanting to dig deeper into the numbers can explore our EPL form analysis for both sides.

Back Arsenal to get the job done, and consider pairing it with the under 2.5 goals market for a tighter return. This final is more likely to be decided by a moment of quality than a goal-fest.

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