The Newcastle Knights will be hoping to pull off an upset against the New Zealand Warriors in a semi-final at Eden Park on Sunday evening. 

Seeking their first preliminary final appearance since 2013, the Knights defeated the Rabbitohs 20-10 in a fiery elimination final last Friday. 

Meanwhile, the Warriors are out to avoid a straight sets exit after a disappointing 26-16 loss to the Dolphins in their qualifying final at Go Media Stadium last Saturday. 

The Warriors won both meetings against the Knights this season and claimed a 40-10 victory when these sides met in a 2023 semi-final. 

Jackson Ford is out after reinjuring himself on his return to the Warriors side last week, with Morgan Gannon taking his spot on the interchange. 

Leka Halasima and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak are named among the reserves as they push for a return. 

Justin Holbrook has named the same Newcastle squad that defeated South Sydney, although Dylan Lucas could be a late inclusion after recovering from an ankle injury.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights ahead of this Elimination Final, check out our Warriors vs Knights tips and predictions below!

Warriors vs Knights Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

The second winner-takes-all match of Week 2 of the Finals sees the Warriors welcome the Knights to Eden Park. 

Are we about to see an epic out-in-straight-sets-at-home choke job by the Warriors? Surely not. 

It’s been known to happen though, just ask the Raiders who despite finishing the regular season first in 2025, were subsequently bounced out of the finals in back-to-back boilovers.

The Warriors will face a similar fate if they are unable to overcome the seemingly reborn Knights who have traded the wooden spoon for a deep finals run in the space of a single season.

Newcastle will be buoyed by their spirited showing against Souths, led by the apparently ageless Dane Gagiai, who not only scored a try, but went toe-to-toe with Latrell Mitchell, firmly sending the message that neither he nor his team were about to be bullied out of the Finals. 

He and his teammates will need to channel that level of resilience once again if they are to overcome two incredibly damning statistics this week, however.  

Firstly, they have lost four of their last five meetings against the Warriors, including a wild 46-32 firefight earlier this season.

Secondly, location. There’s graveyards and then there is whatever is waiting across the ditch. Newcastle has lost 11 of their last 12 matches in New Zealand and while yes, this is being played at Eden Park and not Go Media Stadium, it’s all still New Zealand. 

For all their gallantry this season, we simply can’t see them overturning form lines that definitive. However, we don’t expect them to go quietly either and if recent encounters between these two are anything to go, there could be plenty of tries scored in this one. 

Betting tip: New Zealand Warriors. 

First Try Scorer Prediction 

We’ve already sung his praises quite a bit, but we’re doubling down on Dane. The Knights’ veteran was colossal in their upset win over Souths last start and we’re tipping him to pick up right where he left off here. 

Gagai is on an absolute roll and has scored at least one try in three of his last four appearances and goes in as our first try scorer here. 

Betting tip: Dane Gagai. 

Over/Under Prediction 

Four of Newcastle's last five matches have gone over the total match points line.

Betting tip: Over 44.5 total match points. 

Line Prediction

The underdog has covered the line in 13 of Newcastle's last 14 matches.

Betting tip: Knights (+5.5) line. 

Warriors vs Knights Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips 

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has scored at least one try in three of his last four appearances.

Fletcher Sharpe

Fletcher Sharpe has scored at least one try in seven of his last eight appearances outside of New South Wales.

Chanel Harris-Tavita

Chanel Harris-Tavita has scored a try in five of his last seven appearances.

Dominic Young

Dominic Young has scored at least one try in each of his last four appearances with Newcastle as an underdog.

Erin Clark

Erin Clark has scored a try in each of New Zealand's last two matches against Newcastle.

Greg Marzhew

Greg Marzhew has scored at least one try in each of Newcastle's last three matches against New Zealand.

Taine Tuaupiki

Taine Tuaupiki has scored at least one try in each of New Zealand's last two matches.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored at least one try in 10 of his last 12 appearances with New Zealand as a favourite.

Warriors vs Knights Teams 

New Zealand Warriors Team List 

1. Taine Tuaupiki

2. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

3. Ali Leiataua

4. Adam Pompey

5. Alofiana Khan-Pereira

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Te Maire Martin

8. James Fisher-Harris (c)

9. Wayde Egan

10. Mitch Barnett 

11. Kurt Capewell

12. Jacob Laban

13. Erin Clark 

14. Sam Healey

15. Tanner Stowers-Smith 

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Eddie Ieremia-Toeava

18. Jett Cleary

19. Morgan Gannon

Newcastle Knight Team List 

1. Kalyn Ponga (c)

2. Dom Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Sandon Smith

8. Tyson Frizell

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Cody Hopwood

11. Jermaine McEwen

12. Francis Manuleleua

13. Mat Croker

14. Harrison Graham

15. Lachlan Crouch

16. Pasami Saulo

17. Thomas Cant

18. Fletcher Hunt

19. Toby Winter

Warriors vs Knights Match Details 

Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026. 

Kick-off: 4:05pm AEST. 

Location: Eden Park, Auckland.