Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction – Preliminary Final 2025

The first of this weekend’s NRL Preliminary Finals sees the Melbourne Storm welcome the Cronulla Sharks to AAMI Park on Friday night.

September specialists the Storm are once again knocking on the door of another Grand Final, as they aim to go one better than last year.

For the Sharks, they’ll be looking to swim into their first decider in nearly a decade. Yes, it's been nearly 10 years since Cronulla broke their five decade premiership drought in the 2016 Grand Final, defeating who else, but the Melbourne Storm.

Can they repeat the dose on Friday night and sink the Storm against the odds? Let’s find out.

Check out our Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks match preview for plenty of betting tips and predictions across a host of markets. From H2H to anytime try scorer and everything in between. 

Looking for all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of this Preliminary Final? Check out our Storm vs Sharks prediction below.

 

Storm vs Sharks Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

Despite being far from convincing over the last month, Melbourne find themselves in yet another Grand Final qualifier, their tenth in the last 11 seasons. They’ve got about a 50% strike rate in that time when it comes to converting prelims into GF appearances, so they know fully well what it takes to progress to the big dance.

The Sharks haven’t been here nearly as often as their Friday opponents, but they did make the final four last season.

However, it would have been better if they didn’t, as they were blown away 26-6 by eventual Premiers Penrith. Can they go one better this time around and make the Granny for the first time since 2016?

They’re certainly in better stead this year, having effectively flown under the radar right up until they sent the Raiders packing last start.

They’ve beaten the Storm this season too, a gutsy seven-point triumph back in May, however their rematch a month later ended in a 24-point defeat.

Melbourne have looked the goods for most of the year, up until recently anyway. They lost their final two regular season games and had to fight tooth and nail to see off a busted Bulldogs outfit in the first week of the finals to get to this game.

Normally this downturn in form would make punters flee towards the Sharks in the H2H market, but proceed with caution, all of those sub-par Storm showings had one thing in common.

That thing is that either Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes or Ryan Papenhuyzen were absent. If reports are to be believed, that will not be the case here, with the superstar trio set to join Cameron Munster to complete Melbourne’s big four.

As impressed with the Sharks as we have been of late, they will well and truly be swimming upstream here, and we just can’t see them shaking down the Storm and their four megastars in Melbourne.

Betting tip: Melbourne Storm.

 

First Tryscorer Prediction

Some characters keep cropping up this season when it comes to this market and Melbourne man Eliesa Katoa is one of them.

He’s been in a rich vein of try-scoring form this year for a forward and has scored a try in each of his last three appearances. We’re backing him in again here.

Betting tip: Eliesa Katoa.

 

Over/Under Prediction

Six of the last seven matches between Melbourne and Cronulla at AAMI Park have gone over the total match points line.

Betting tip: Over total match points (41.5).

 

Storm vs Sharks Anytime Tryscorer Betting Tips

 

KL Iro

KL Iro has scored at least one try in each of his last four interstate appearances.

 

Ryan Papenhuyzen

Ryan Papenhuyzen has scored at least one try in each of his last three Preliminary Finals appearances.

 

Ronaldo Mulitalo

Ronaldo Mulitalo has scored at least one try in four of Cronulla's last five matches.

 

Jahrome Hughes

Jahrome Hughes has scored at least one try in three of his last four home appearances.

 

Sione Katoa

Sione Katoa has scored a try in three of Cronulla's last four Finals away matches.

 

Will Warbrick

Will Warbrick has scored at least one try in three of Melbourne's last four Finals matches at AAMI Park.

 

Storm vs Sharks Teams

 

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. Will Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Nick Meaney

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King 

11. Ativalu Lisati

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Shawn Blore

16. Tui Kamakimica

17. Alec MacDonald

 

Cronulla Sharks Team List

1. William Kennedy

2. Sione Katoa

3. Jesse Ramien

4. KL Iro

5. Ronaldo Mulitalo

6. Braydon Trindall 

7. Nicho Hynes

8. Addin Fonua-Blake

9. Blayke Brailey

10. Toby Rudolf

11. Billy Burns 

12. Teig Wilton

13. Jesse Colquhoun

14. Briton Nikora

15. Siosifa Talakai

16. Oregon Kaufusi

17. Braden Hamlin-Uele

 

Storm vs Sharks Match Details

 

Date: Friday, September 26, 2025.

Kick-off: 7:50pm AEST.

Location: AAMI Park, Melbourne.