State of Origin Game 3 Predictions Overview:

Head-to-head – Queensland: The Maroons have won eight of their last nine Origin 3 matches at Suncorp Stadium. 

First try scorer – Selwyn Cobbo: In 13 of the last 16 Origin matches at Suncorp Stadium, the starting Queensland right wing has scored a try.

Total match points – Under (44.5): Each of the last six Origin 3 matches have gone under the total match points line.

Line – NSW (+5.5): The underdogs have covered the line in each of the last nine Origin 3 matches.

It all comes down to this. The 2026 State of Origin series will be settled with a Game 3 decider at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night.

New South Wales drew first blood in the series, staging a remarkable comeback in Game 1 south of the border, only to be blown after a few weeks later at the MCG.

Now, riding a wave of momentum, Queensland head home to Lang Park to try and see out the series, where on all but three occasions, NSW’s decider dreams have gone to die.

Can the Blues defy the odds and upset Queensland on their own patch to wrestle back the shield? Or will the mighty Maroons seal yet another Origin series victory up at Suncorp?

For all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of the Origin decider, check out our expert State of Origin Game 3 predictions below.

State of Origin Game 3 Predictions and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction

When you scan the head-to-head market, it’s no shock to see Queensland shaded as the 1.55 favourite over the Blues. 

History and home advantage are doing the heavy lifting here, and the Maroons’ ownership of Origin III deciders at Suncorp, eight wins from their last nine, is almost impossible to ignore.

Champion teams beat teams of champions as the old adage goes and that always seems to ring true in Origin. 

Despite NSW boasting names like Cleary, Tedesco, Moses and Murray, they simply can’t seem to get their combinations right, particularly under pressure. 

Queensland on the other hand run on a “next man up” mentality and the Maroons at Suncorp in a decider is one of the most reliable trends in Australian sport. 

The Maroons’ pack, fuelled by a rabid home crowd baying for blue blood should look to bully the middle early, laying the platform for their strike weapons such as Munster, Ponga and Cobbo to seal the series. 

Betting tip: Queensland. 

First Try Scorer Prediction

In electric form for club and state this season, Selwyn Cobbo is the man for us in the first try scorer market for the 2026 Origin decider.

The Dolphins man ran riot in Game 2, scoring a stunning hat-trick to put NSW to the sword and force this decider.

He then went on to score two more for the Phins last week against the high-flying Warriors, just before heading back into Origin camp.

Add to this the fact that in 13 of the last 16 Origin matches at Suncorp Stadium, the starting Queensland right wing has scored a try and all signs seem to be pointing straight to Selwyn.

Betting tip: Selwyn Cobbo. 

Over/Under Prediction

The total match points line has been set at 44.5, and this is where the value looks strongest. 

Each of the last six Origin 3 matches has gone under the total match points line, a trend that speaks to the pressure, arm-wrestle nature of a decider.

Expect tight defensive lines, kicking duels for territory, and a genuine reluctance from either side to gift easy points. That kind of contest lends itself perfectly to the unders.

Betting tip: Under (44.5) total match points. 

Line Prediction

The underdogs have covered the line in each of the last nine Origin 3 matches.

Betting tip: NSW (+5.5) line. 

Player of the Match Prediction 

Somewhat surprisingly, young Sam Walker sits as the current favourite for the player of the match award here.

Playing in his first Origin series, Walker has shown experience far beyond his years, in particular the way he controlled the tempo in Game 2.

His options close to the line and on fifth tackle have been on the money again and again this series, so there’s worse things to do than put your money on Walker in this market. 

Betting tip: Sam Walker. 

State of Origin Game 3 Teams Lists 

Queensland Team List 

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Robert Toia

4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

5. Jojo Fifita

6. Cameron Munster (c)

7. Sam Walker

8. Tom Flegler

9. Harry Grant

10. Tino Fa'asuamaleaui

11. Briton Nikora

12. Kurt Capewell 

13. Reuben Cotter

14. Max Plath

15. Jeremiah Nanai

16. Trent Loiero

17. Pat Carrigan

18. Reece Walsh

19. Murray Tualagi

20. Corey Horsburgh

New South Wales Team List 

1. James Tedesco

2. Jack Bostock

3. Bradman Best

4. Stephen Crichton

5. Mark Nawaqanitawase

6. Mitchell Moses

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Payne Haas

9. Reece Robson

10. Mitch Barnett

11. Hudson Young

12. Liam Marin

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

14. Cameron Murray

15. Addin Fonua-Blake

16. Haumole Olakau’atu

17. Blayke Brailey

18. Ethan Strange

19. Tolu Koula

20. Victor Radley

State of Origin Game 3 Match Details 

Date: Wednesday, July 8, 2026. 

Kick-off: 8:05pm AEST. 

Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.