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State of Origin Game 3 Tips & Predictions

12/07/2024|SB Staff|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips
<p>On the hallowed turf of the MCG, the New South Wales Blues managed to level the 2024 State of Origin series, and in some style.</p> <p>The Blues forced an all too familiar Suncorp decider thanks to a Mitchell Moses inspired demolition job of their interstate rivals, that saw them up 34-0 at halftime.</p> <p>The final result was 38-18, with the Maroons saving some face in the second stanza, but the damage was already well and truly done.</p> <p>Not only has that result flipped the series on its head but it has also ensured State of Origin Game 3 will now be what everyone wanted – a decider.</p> <p>It all comes down to this. State against state. Mate against mate. NSW against Queendland. Who will win State of Origin Game 3 and claim the shield for 2024? Let’s find out.</p> <p>For the latest news, lineups, odds, predictions and betting tips for this do-or-die encounter, check out our State of Origin Game 3 tips and predictions below.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>State of Origin Game 3 Team Lists</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>For once it’s the Maroons making more changes than their interstate rivals ahead of State of Origin Game 3.</p> <p>Injuries have forced Billy Slater's hand and Selywn Cobbo and veteran Dane Gagai have been brought in to cover for injured duo Xavier Coates and Murray Tualagi.</p> <p>Jayden Su’A’s subpar line defence has cost him his place, with the experienced Kurt Capewell promoted to the starting side.</p> <p>The bench is where things get really interesting though. Slater has elected not to choose barnstorming forward David Fifita and instead given a bench spot to fullback and reigning Dally M Player of the Year Kalyn Ponga.</p> <p>Ponga’s talent is undisputed, but he has been named after only playing one game after a long injury lay off.&nbsp;</p> <p>Could we be about to witness another Maroon miracle, with Ponga rising from the pine to become the match winner?&nbsp;</p> <p>Or will everything go pear shaped for Billy Slater and his side for running an undermanned forward rotation? No matter what happens, this is not to be missed!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Queensland Maroons</h3> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>1.&nbsp; &nbsp; Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>2.&nbsp; &nbsp; Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>3.&nbsp; &nbsp; Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)</p> <p>4.&nbsp; &nbsp; Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (The Dolphins)</p> <p>5.&nbsp; &nbsp; Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>6.&nbsp; &nbsp; Tom Dearden (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>7.&nbsp; &nbsp; Daly Cherry-Evans © (Manly Sea Eagles)</p> <p>8.&nbsp; &nbsp; Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>9.&nbsp; &nbsp; Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons)</p> <p>10. &nbsp; Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)</p> <p>11. &nbsp; Kurt Capewell (New Zealand Warriors)</p> <p>12. &nbsp; Jerimiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>13. &nbsp; Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>14. &nbsp; Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)</p> <p>15. &nbsp; Moeaki Fotuaika (Gold Coast Titans)</p> <p>16. &nbsp; Felise Kaufusi (The Dolphins)</p> <p>17. &nbsp; Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)</p> <p>18. &nbsp; Trent Loiero (Melbourne Storm)</p> <p>19. &nbsp; Brendan Piakura (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>20. &nbsp; Reed Mahoney (Canterbury Bulldogs)</p>
<p>What was their biggest inclusion in Game 2, is now their biggest exclusion for Game 3. No Latrell Mitchell is a big problem for NSW.</p> <p>The rampaging Rabbitoh has been in red-hot form of late but will miss the decider after sustaining a foot injury in his side’s win over Parramatta last week.</p> <p>His place is set to be filled by Newcastle centre Bradman Best, who made his first and to date, only Origin appearance in Game 3 last year, where he scored two tries to help the Blues avoid a clean sweep.</p> <p>The only other change for the Blues sees Mitchell Barnett join the bench for Haumole Olakau’atu, who moves to the reserves.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>New South Wales Blues</h3> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>1.&nbsp; &nbsp; Dylan Edwards (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>2.&nbsp; &nbsp; Brian To’o (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>3.&nbsp; &nbsp; Bradman Best (Newcastle Knights)</p> <p>4.&nbsp; &nbsp; Stephen Crichton (Canterbury Bulldogs)</p> <p>5.&nbsp; &nbsp; Zac Lomax (St George Illawarra Dragons)</p> <p>6.&nbsp; &nbsp; Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>7.&nbsp; &nbsp; Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)</p> <p>8.&nbsp; &nbsp; Jake Trbojevic © (Manly Sea Eagles)</p> <p>9.&nbsp; &nbsp; Reece Robson (North Queensland Cowboys)</p> <p>10.&nbsp; Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)</p> <p>11.&nbsp; Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>12.&nbsp; Angus Chrichton (Sydney Roosters)</p> <p>13.&nbsp; Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)</p> <p>14.&nbsp; Connor Watson (Sydney Roosters)</p> <p>15.&nbsp; Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)</p> <p>16.&nbsp; Mitchell Barnett (New Zealand Warriors)</p> <p>17.&nbsp; Spencer Leniu (Sydney Roosters)</p> <p>18.&nbsp; Matt Burton (Canterbury Bulldogs)</p> <p>19.&nbsp; Haumole Olakau’atu (Manly Sea Eagles)</p> <p>20.&nbsp; Luke Keary (Sydney Roosters)</p>
<h2>State of Origin Game 3 Predictions and Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Head-to-Head (H2H)</h3> <p>Despite being slight underdogs in the H2H market it still seems foolish not to back the Queensland Maroons in State of Origin Game 3.</p> <p>NSW have only ever won two deciders in Queensland from 13 times of asking and have only ever been able to overcome a 1-0 series deficit to lift the shield on three occasions.</p> <p>In fact, you have to turn the clock back nearly two decades to 2005 to find the last time the Blues won a decider at what the locals still call Lang Park.</p> <p>Yes, they have the momentum and arguably, on paper, the superior team, but the loss of dynamo centre Latrell Micthell paired with the Suncorp hoodoo, means we simply have to side with the Queenslanders who thrive off being labelled underdogs.</p> <p>If you look closely, you’ll see they have their backs right where they want them, against the wall.</p> <p><strong>Predicted winner:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/state-of-origin/queensland-v-new-south-wales-8353514">Queensland Maroons.</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>First Try Scorer</h3> <p>Zac Lomax will be linking up with halfback Mitchell Moses in club land next season, when he takes up a four-year contract with Parramatta, but if NSW coach Michael Maguire gets his way, everyone will get another early preview of what is sure to become one of the most lethal combos in the NRL.</p> <p>Their chemistry was there for all to see at the MCG, with Moses’ pinpoint kicking and Lomax’s aerial ability tormenting the flying winger’s opposite number.</p> <p>Look to these two to replicate their Game II exploits and link up for the opening try at Lang Park.</p> <p>On the other side of the border there is the old bull who never lets his state down, Dane Gagai has been recalled in Queensland’s time of need.</p> <p>The script writes itself and his record in a Maroon jersey also speaks for itself, if anyone for the home side is getting over the stripe first, it just has to be him.</p> <p>Regardless of who does find the line first in this one, hopefully they'll treat us all to a post-try celebration, as State of Origin Game 3 falls under the umbrella of <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/news/try-july-2024">Try July!</a></p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/state-of-origin/queensland-v-new-south-wales-8353514">Zac Lomax or Dane Gagai first try scorer.</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Over/Under</h3> <p>The days of cagey, tense, low scoring State of Origin matches appear to be over. If the first two games of this series are anything to go by, we’re set to have an all-out firefight in State of Origin Game 3.</p> <p>Two young, hungry sides, bristling with the most explosive attacking talent the NRL has to offer, with it all on the line. Grab the popcorn, there will be points.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/rugby-league/state-of-origin/queensland-v-new-south-wales-8353514">Over total match points (+42.5)</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>State of Origin Guide 2024 – Game 3</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Location:</strong> Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Queensland.</p> <p><strong>Date: </strong>Wednesday, July 17, 2024.</p> <p><strong>Kick-off time: </strong>8:05pm AEST.</p>

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