New South Wales produced one of the greatest comebacks in State of Origin history, stunning Queensland 22-20 in Game 1 after trailing 20-0 early in the contest.

Now the series shifts south to a venue that rarely hosts the game’s biggest occasion, with the MCG set to provide a spectacular backdrop for what promises to be a blockbuster encounter.

The Blues head to Melbourne with a 1-0 series lead but plenty of questions to answer, while a wounded Queensland side will be desperate to level things up and keep their title defence alive.

With selection dramas, injury concerns and an expected sold-out crowd roaring for blood, Game 2 has all the ingredients to be a match to remember.

How will the second game of the series play out on Wednesday night? For all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of the second Origin match, check out our expert State of Origin Game 2 predictions below.

State of Origin Game 2 Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

The Blues have been forced into a reshuffle during the weekend of their own, with Casey McLean ruled out after straining his quadriceps at training, seeing Tolutau Koula shift to the centres and rugby-bound Mark Nawaqanitawase coming into the starting side on the wing.

Api Koroisau returns to the Origin arena for the first time since 2023, replacing Blayke Brailey, who suffered an injury 48 hours after Game 1.

Dylan Lucas will also make his debut for New South Wales, replacing Haumole Olakau’atu, a move that Laurie Daley can’t even explain himself, and he’s the coach picking the side.

The bigger talking point on the NSW side is the return of Mitch Moses at five-eighth, a move that pushes Ethan Strange, who was arguably the best player in Game 1, back to a bench role.

Payne Haas also comes back into the starting side after putting in a mammoth performance for the Broncos, putting any fitness concerns firmly to rest.

Queensland have made three changes to their Game 1 lineup, with Patrick Carrigan and Gehamat Shibasaki ruled out through injury, while Ezra Mam has been axed after being demoted to the bench by his NRL club.

Reuben Cotter moves from second row to lock, with Kulikefu Finefeuiaki coming onto the bench and Reece Walsh included as a late-game option. 

New South Wales has won the last three matches at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, and with Queensland down on troops, seeing the Blues respond when down the way they were in Game 1, we expect the Blues to claim the series ahead of Game 3 in July.

Betting tip: New South Wales. 

First Try Scorer Prediction 

An outside back has scored the first of the game in the last five Origin matches, and we expect the trend to continue.

Robert Toia claimed the first try of this year’s series opener.

For Queensland, we’ve zeroed in on winger Jojo Fifita.

In each of the last three Origin II matches, the starting Queensland left wing has scored a try.

For the Blues, debutant Mark Nawaqanitawase has a lot of appeal.

In each of the last two Origin II matches, 10 tries from 19 total came from wingers.

With Nawaqanitawase’s ability in the air and the x-factor to come up with a creative play out of thin air, the Roosters winger could open up the scoring.

Betting tip: Jojo Fifita.

Over/Under Prediction 

Two of the last three State of Origin games that were played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground went over the total match points.

Despite four of the last five Origin matches in which Queensland has been trailing in the series, going under the total match points line, the first game of this year’s series went under this line by half a point.

This makes Game 2 the opportunity for points  galore as New South Wales want to win this match to claim the series and Queensland want to even the series out to make Game 3 at Suncorp the series decider once again.

Betting tip: Over (42.5) total match points. 

Line Prediction

New South Wales has covered this line in three of the last five Origin matches and in four of the last five Game 2’s of the series.

Betting tip: New South Wales (-1.5) line. 

Player of the Match Prediction

Nathan Cleary’s form at club level and the last twenty minutes of Game 1 made him Player of the Match thanks to his clutch performance. 

Although he could certainly earn this selection again, there’s another Blues player we have in mind. 

Payne Haas is one of the last three players to win the Player of the Match selection.

One of the biggest areas of improvement the Blues side needed was in the forward pack, and his dominance and influence in the game could certainly be the difference in the Blues horrible start to games.

Betting tip: Payne Haas.

State of Origin Game 2 Team Lists 

Queensland 

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. Selwyn Cobbo

3. Robert Toia

4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

5. Jojo Fifita

6. Cameron Munster

7. Sam Walker

8. Thomas Flegler

9. Harry Grant

10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

11. Briton Nikora

12. Kurt Capewell

13. Reuben Cotter

14. Max Plath

15. Lindsay Collins

16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

17. Trent Loiero

18. Reece Walsh

19. Murray Taulagi

20. Heilum Luki

New South Wales  

1. James Tedesco

2. Brian To’o

3. Tolutau Koula

4. Kotoni Staggs

5. Mark Nawaqanitawase

6. Mitchell Moses

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Payne Haas

9. Reece Robson

10. Mitchell Barnett

11. Hudson Young

12. Dylan Lucas

13. Isaah Yeo

14. Cameron Murray 

15. Victor Radley

16. Addin Fonua-Blake

17. Apisai Koroisau

18. Ethan Strange

19. Jack Bostock

20. Haumole Olakau’atu

State of Origin Game 2 Match Details 

Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026. 

Kick-off: 8:05pm AEST. 

Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne.