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NRL Tips and Predictions – Round 23

04/08/2026|Joel Caine|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips

NRL Round 23 is set to be a momentous occasion as Rugby League celebrates its annual Indigenous Round. 

First Nation’s people from both Australia and New Zealand have and continue to play a massive part in making the NRL the spectacle it is today and in Round 23 the game will take a moment to say thank you.

To celebrate 2026 Indigenous Round there are more than a few major matchups on the cards.

In addition to a pair of Queensland Derbies, there’s also a crucial game in the race for the minor premiership and Melbourne and Manly are set to reignite their classic rivalry too. 

Will action abounding everywhere you look, this year’s edition of Indigenous Round is not to be missed.

For all the latest news, analysis, and predictions ahead of this week's action, check out our NRL Round 23 tips and predictions below.

 

Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction 

Thursday, August 6, 7:50pm AEST – Cbus Super Stadium 

 

NRL Round 23 opens with the first of two QLD Derbies this week as the Titans look to capitalise on the lingering shellshock in the Cowboys camp.

When you cop 82 points in front of your own fans, the last thing you probably feel like doing is playing more footy.

Unfortunately, with no bye in sight this week, that is the reality the Cowboys face here. 

They were torn limb from limb by a rampaging Roosters outfit last week, in what ended up being one of the highest scoring games in NRL history.

Obviously, we’re not rushing to tip them this week, even if the Titans were also embarrassed at home last start. 

Still, there’s a big difference between conceding 82 on your own patch and conceding 42. 

That difference is enough to lose our allegiance for the foreseeable future; we’re taking the Titans on Thursday.

Head-to-head prediction: Gold Coast Titans

Betting tip: Over total match points. 

 

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers Prediction

Friday, August 7, 6:00pm AEST – Go Media Stadium

 

NRL Round 23’s Friday night festivities kick off with a clash that could go a long way to deciding this year’s minor premiership.

Current top dogs Penrith will head across the ditch to face the third-placed Warriors in a pivotal clash.

If the Wahs want any chance of finishing first, the one is a must win, but that’s a lot easier said than done.

The Panthers are not just favourites to win here, but also to win both the minor premiership and the Provan-Summons trophy. 

In the most damning statistic for New Zealand’s hopes though, Penrith have won 11 of their last 12 matches against them. 

A stat this dominant is always tough to tip against and we’re not brave enough to take it head on. 

Head-to-head prediction: Penrith Panthers

Betting tip: Thomas Jenkins 2+ tries. 

 

Sydney Roosters vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction

Friday, August 7, 8:00pm AEST – Allianz Stadium

 

Friday night footy continues with two of the comp’s most in form teams going head-to-head when the Roosters welcome the Bulldogs to Allianz Stadium.

After resembling just another ‘also-ran’ the Doggies have won three straight to force their way into the top 8 and put the other seven sides above them on notice.

One of those seven sides is the Sydney Roosters who made it six wins straight last week against the Cowboys.

Funnily enough, it wasn’t the fact that they had just won six straight that sent shockwaves through competition, it was the way they recorded victory number six.

If you’re a North Queensland fan, you can stop reading now. The Tricolours gave no quarter to their hosts last Thursday as they ran riot in Townsville towelling up the locals to the tune of 82 points. 

Sam Walker was the main architect of the Cowboys destruction, running in a hat-trick, laying on a handful more and kicking 12 goals.

He’s officially gone from exciting prospect to elite half and this week it’s the Bulldogs in his crosshairs. 

Head-to-head prediction: Sydney Roosters. 

Betting tip: Sam Walker to score and assist. 

 

Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction

Saturday, August 8, 3:00pm AEST – HBF Park

 

One of the NRL’s fiercest modern rivalries resumes on Saturday arvo, when Melbourne and Manly take their hatred for one another out West to Perth’s HBF Park.

Unfortunately, these two sides are shadows of what they once were at the peak of their rivalry, with age, injuries and inconsistency taking their toll on both teams. 

The Sea Eagles new manager bounce under favourite son Kieran Foran is well and truly gone and they went into the bye last week with four straight losses behind them.

Melbourne aren’t faring much better and find themselves on a three-match skid. To make matters worse they look set to be without the entirety of their big three with Cameron Munster, Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant all expected to be absent just as they were in their loss to the Bulldogs last week.

Against a well-rested Sea Eagles side who potentially could be welcoming back Tom Trobjevic, these outs should prove too much to overcome for Melbourne. 

Head-to-head prediction: Manly Sea Eagles

Betting tip: Tolutau Koula first try scorer. 

 

The Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction

Saturday, August 8, 5:30pm AEST – Suncorp Stadium

 

The second all-Queensland affair of NRL Round 23 sees the Dolphins and the Broncos battle for Suncorp supremacy on Saturday.

The Broncos premiership is officially over after last week’s dismal defeat to a depleted Newcastle side, with no amount of mathematical logistics able to save them now.

Since getting belted 66-0 by the Sharks, the Phins are yet to lose again, with two wins and a bye to their name.

These results have not only kept them right in the finals race, but also within striking distance of the top four.

With the Broncos playing only for pride from here on out, picking the Phins becomes an easy decision for us.  

Head-to-head prediction: The Dolphins

Betting tip: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow first try scorer. 

 

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels Prediction

Saturday, August 8, 7:30pm AEST – Allianz Stadium

 

Saturday’s action wraps up with a classic Sydney showdown between the Rabbitohs and the Eels.

These are two teams that have been so hot and cold this season, that we dread every time it comes to trying to tip them. 

Souths last five reads: LWLWL, while Parramatta’s is nearly identical at: LWLLW. Seriously, anyone got a coin on them. 

The biggest point of difference here could be proud Indigenous man Cody Walker always seems to go to another level every Indigenous Round and seeing as he’s already been in fine touch of late, we’re backing a big performance from him.

South’s finals hopes are also very much alive and the same cannot be said for Parramatta who flatlined a while ago. With that in mind, Souths should have plenty more to play for here and as a result go into out bet slips. 

Head-to-head prediction: South Sydney Rabbitohs

Betting tip: Cody Walker anytime try scorer. 

 

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Prediction

Sunday, August 9, 2:00pm AEST – GIO Stadium

 

The Knights will head to the nation’s capital on Sunday looking to sure up their finals standings when they face Raiders. 

Newcastle pulled two points clear of ninth last week with an impressive away win against defending premiers Brisbane, despite being without a host of stars. 

The return of main man Kalyn Ponga certainly played a massive part in the result, with the elusive fullback laying on a number of tries from his teammates.

Meanwhile, the Raiders recent revival came to a screeching halt last week at the hands of the Panthers. 

Even though they were comprehensively outplayed, it feels unjust to look too much into the loss, as most side’s struggle against the Penrith machine.

Prior to the defeat they’d won four in a row, and back at home, they’ll be looking to jump back into the winner’s circle and keep their slim finals hopes alive.

They’ll have to be at their best to overcome this resilient Newcastle side, but with young gun Ethan Strange in fine form and the surprise interchange impact of Daine Laurie coming to the fore, we’re backing them to get the job done here, just.  

Head-to-head prediction: Canberra Raiders

Betting tip: Daine Laurie anytime try scorer. 

 

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction

Sunday, August 9, 4:05pm AEST – Jubilee Stadium

 

The final game of NRL Round 23 and the final game of 2026 edition of Indigenous Round sees St George and the Sharks doing battle at Jubilee Stadium on Sunday.

To the Dragon’s credit, they sure do make our job easy. Simply don’t tip them for the best possible results. 

They came close to finding just their third win of the season last week, going down by six points in a respectable showing against the Dragons.

The Sharks, meanwhile, notched their fifth straight win, putting the Rabbitohs to the sword to remain in fourth, with a couple of big boys in Siosifa Talakai and Addin Fonua-Blake getting on the scorecard in the process. 

In terms of who to tip here, see above – not the Dragons.

Head-to-head prediction: Cronulla Sharks

Betting tip: Addin Fonua-Blake anytime try scorer. 

 

Wests Tigers – BYE 

 

That’s one way to end a losing streak. After losing seven straight the Tigers mercifully get a week off in NRL Round 23. 

Penrith Panthers
Sydney Roosters
Cronulla Sharks
New Zealand Warriors
Dolphins
Newcastle Knights
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Canterbury Bulldogs
Manly Sea Eagles
Nth Queensland Cowboys
Canberra Raiders
Melbourne Storm
Parramatta Eels

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31/07/2026|Joel Caine|NRL News
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