The South Sydney Rabbitohs and Newcastle Knights will kick off the 2026 NRL Finals series with a do-or-die elimination final at Allianz Stadium on Friday night. 

The sides split their two meetings during the regular season, with the home team narrowly winning on both occasions. 

Souths notched a 50-20 win over an undermanned Roosters side last week as emotions ran high during Jai Arrow’s 100th and final start for the club. 

Meanwhile, the Knights had a bye last week after losing 46-32 to the Warriors in Auckland the round before, where Jacob Saifiti was booked for a high tackle on Luke Laulilii and subsequently handed a four-match ban. 

Dominic Young and Tyson Frizell return from suspension, while Phoenix Crossland is back at hooker and Cody Hopwood starts for the injured Trey Mooney. 

The Bunnies regain Tallis Duncan as Adam Elliott moves to the bench. Euan Aitken sits out through injury, while Matthew Dufty starts at fullback ahead of Jye Gray, who reverts to the interchange.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights ahead of this first Elimination Final, check out our Rabbitohs vs Knights tips and predictions below!

Rabbitohs vs Knights Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish and after an up and down season that saw plenty of sub-par performances, the Bunnies bounce into this Elimination Final riding a wave of momentum and emotion.

They’ve won four out of their last five and have every neutral rooting for them after the way they have supported and championed Jai Arrow during his battle with MND. 

Newcastle on the other hand enter this one off the back of back-to-back losses. They did have the bye last week to get their ducks in a row and have won four of their last five matches against the Rabbitohs. 

However, South Sydney simply have too much going for them at the moment and with the likes of Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, David Fifita, Alex Johnston and Cameron Murray all back to full health and top form, we don’t just fancy them in this fixture but we fancy them as a dark horse for the whole thing. 

Betting tip: South Sydney Rabbitohs.

First Try Scorer Prediction 

The man, the myth, the legend. In the same year as breaking the NRL’s all time try scoring record; Alex Johnston also ended the regular season as joint top scorer. 

The Souths superstar has crossed for 30 tries this year, marking just the sixth time (including Jenkins) someone has hit that number. Oh yeah, three of those 30 try hauls were all recorded by AJ. 

More recently, Johnston has scored at least one try in each of his last 11 appearances against teams on a losing streak and South Sydney has scored the first try in each of their last five matches as a favourite. Do we need to go on? 

Betting tip: Alex Johnston. 

Over/Under Prediction 

Each of Newcastle's last four matches have gone over the total match points line.

Betting tip: Over 48.5 total match points. 

Line Prediction

The underdog has covered the line in 12 of Newcastle's last 13 matches.

Betting tip: Knights (+7.5) line. 

Rabbitohs vs Knights Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips 

Dominic Young

Dominic Young has scored a try in each of his four previous appearances against South Sydney in Sydney.

Latrell Mitchell

Latrell Mitchell has scored a try in each of his four previous Finals Week 1 appearances.

Greg Marzhew

Greg Marzhew has scored at least one try in each of Newcastle's last three matches.

Cody Walker

Cody Walker has scored at least one try in five of South Sydney's last six Finals matches.

Kalyn Ponga

Kalyn Ponga has scored at least one try in each of his last three appearances in Sydney.

Bradman Best

Bradman Best has scored a try in three of his last four appearances against South Sydney.

Rabbitohs vs Knights Teams 

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List 

1. Matt Dufty

2. Alex Johnston

3. Latrell Mitchell

4. Jack Wighton

5. Campbell Graham

6. Cody Walker

7. Jayden Sullivan

8. Tevita Tatola

9. Brandon Smith

10. Keaon Koloamatangi

11. David Fifita

12. Tallis Duncan

13. Cameron Murray (c)

14. Jye Gray

15. Lachlan Hubner

16. Sean Keppie

17. Jamie Humphreys

18. Adam Elliott

19. Latrell Siegwalt

Newcastle Knights Team List 

1. Kalyn Ponga (c)

2. Dom Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Sandon Smith

8. Tyson Frizell

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Cody Hopwood

11. Jermaine McEwen

12. Francis Manuleleua

13. Mat Croker

14. Harrison Graham

15. Lachlan Crouch

16. Pasami Saulo

17. Thomas Cant

18. Fletcher Hunt

19. Toby Winter

Rabbitohs vs Knights Match Details 

Date: Friday, September 11, 2026. 

Kick-off: 7:50pm AEST. 

Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney.