Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm Prediction – Round 5 2026
02/04/2026|SB Staff|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips
The Penrith Panthers will host the Melbourne Storm at CommBank Stadium on Good Friday, with the competition’s only unbeaten side looking to continue their dominant start.
Penrith has been outstanding in 2026, outscoring opponents by a combined 110 points across four victories, including a 48-20 win over Parramatta last week.
Incredibly, the Panthers have conceded just 30 points and again look every bit premiership favourites.
Meanwhile, Melbourne has slipped to 2-2 after surrendering half-time leads in consecutive losses, including last week’s 28-24 defeat to North Queensland.
Despite winning both meetings with Penrith last season and four of the past five, Melbourne enters as a heavy underdog, looking to avoid its first three-match losing streak since 2022.
In team news, Freddy Lussick starts at hooker for Penrith with Mitch Kenny suspended, while Jack Cogger returns to the bench. Nick Meaney is back for the Storm while Tui Kamikamica and Moses Leo are out.
For the latest news, odds and analysis ahead of this heavyweight clash on Good Friday, check out our Panthers vs Storm tips and predictions below.
Panthers vs Storm Prediction and Betting Tips
Head-to-Head Prediction
If not for the Good Friday fixture preceding this one, there is no doubt this clash would be the headline battle of NRL Round 5.
The Panthers and the Storm are two sides who have been the pinnacle of sustained success in recent times and it's always fireworks when they meet.
For what feels like the first time in forever, we are actually feeling very confident tipping against the Storm.
That’s right, before you swiftly close this tab, let us explain. Basically, the Panthers are borderline unstoppable. They’re four from four. They’ve scored 140 points and conceded just 30.
They’ve embarrassed preseason premiership favourites Brisbane and the Roosters during this time and Nathan Cleary sits alone atop the Dally M leaderboard. Anyone who deemed their dynasty done is dead wrong.
Meanwhile, Melbourne are staring down three straight losses after succumbing to the Cowboys up in the tropics.
If any more evidence was required to pile on Penrith, this one is going down in Sydney. Best of luck Craig Bellamy and co.
Betting tip: Penrith Panthers.
First Try Scorer Prediction
Thomas Jenkins is a man who can’t be stopped at the moment. He has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances, meaning he has scored at least one try in every game he’s played this season.
That’s why it shouldn’t come as too much of a shock that we’re nominating him for first try scorer here.
Betting tip: Thomas Jenkins.
Over/Under Prediction
Each of Melbourne's last four interstate matches as an underdog have gone over the total match points line.
Betting tip: Over (43.5) total match points.
Line Prediction
Penrith has covered the line in seven of their last eight matches.
Betting tip: Panthers (-8.5) line.
Panthers vs Storm Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips
Sualauvi Fa'alogo
Sualauvi Fa'alogo has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances.
Isaiah Papali'i
Isaiah Papali'i has scored a try in each of his last four appearances against teams on a losing streak.
Will Warbrick
Will Warbrick has scored a try in each of his last five appearances against teams on a winning streak.
Casey McLean
Casey McLean has scored at least one try in six of Penrith's last seven matches against opponents that were ranked lower on the ladder.
Paul Alamoti
Paul Alamoti has scored a try in each of his last three appearances at CommBank Stadium.
Panthers vs Storm Teams
Penrith Panthers Team List
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Thomas Jenkins
3. Paul Alamoti
4. Casey McLean
5. Brian To'o
6. Blaize Talagi
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Freddy Lussick
10. Lindsay Smith
11. Isaiah Papali'i
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo (c)
14. Jack Cogger
15. Billy Phillips
16. Scott Sorensen
17. Luke Garner
18. Izack Tago
Melbourne Storm Team List
1. Sua Fa'alogo
2. Will Warbrick
3. Jack Howarth
4. Nick Meaney
5. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Harry Grant (c)
10. Josh King
11. Joe Chan
12. Alec MacDonald
13. Trent Loiero
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Davvy Moale
16. Jack Hetherington
17. Cooper Clark
18. Lazarus Vaalepu
Panthers vs Storm Match Details
Date: Friday, April 3, 2026.
Kick-off: 8:00pm AEDT.
Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney.


