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Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm Prediction – Round 5 2026

02/04/2026|SB Staff|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips

The Penrith Panthers will host the Melbourne Storm at CommBank Stadium on Good Friday, with the competition’s only unbeaten side looking to continue their dominant start.

Penrith has been outstanding in 2026, outscoring opponents by a combined 110 points across four victories, including a 48-20 win over Parramatta last week.

Incredibly, the Panthers have conceded just 30 points and again look every bit premiership favourites.

Meanwhile, Melbourne has slipped to 2-2 after surrendering half-time leads in consecutive losses, including last week’s 28-24 defeat to North Queensland.

Despite winning both meetings with Penrith last season and four of the past five, Melbourne enters as a heavy underdog, looking to avoid its first three-match losing streak since 2022.

In team news, Freddy Lussick starts at hooker for Penrith with Mitch Kenny suspended, while Jack Cogger returns to the bench. Nick Meaney is back for the Storm while Tui Kamikamica and Moses Leo are out.

For the latest news, odds and analysis ahead of this heavyweight clash on Good Friday, check out our Panthers vs Storm tips and predictions below.

 

Panthers vs Storm Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

If not for the Good Friday fixture preceding this one, there is no doubt this clash would be the headline battle of NRL Round 5.

The Panthers and the Storm are two sides who have been the pinnacle of sustained success in recent times and it's always fireworks when they meet.

For what feels like the first time in forever, we are actually feeling very confident tipping against the Storm.

That’s right, before you swiftly close this tab, let us explain. Basically, the Panthers are borderline unstoppable. They’re four from four. They’ve scored 140 points and conceded just 30.

They’ve embarrassed preseason premiership favourites Brisbane and the Roosters during this time and Nathan Cleary sits alone atop the Dally M leaderboard. Anyone who deemed their dynasty done is dead wrong.

Meanwhile, Melbourne are staring down three straight losses after succumbing to the Cowboys up in the tropics.

If any more evidence was required to pile on Penrith, this one is going down in Sydney. Best of luck Craig Bellamy and co.

Betting tip: Penrith Panthers.

 

First Try Scorer Prediction

Thomas Jenkins is a man who can’t be stopped at the moment. He has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances, meaning he has scored at least one try in every game he’s played this season.

That’s why it shouldn’t come as too much of a shock that we’re nominating him for first try scorer here.

Betting tip: Thomas Jenkins.

 

Over/Under Prediction

Each of Melbourne's last four interstate matches as an underdog have gone over the total match points line.

Betting tip: Over (43.5) total match points.

 

Line Prediction

Penrith has covered the line in seven of their last eight matches.

Betting tip: Panthers (-8.5) line.

 

Panthers vs Storm Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips

 

Sualauvi Fa'alogo

Sualauvi Fa'alogo has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances.

 

Isaiah Papali'i

Isaiah Papali'i has scored a try in each of his last four appearances against teams on a losing streak.

 

Will Warbrick

Will Warbrick has scored a try in each of his last five appearances against teams on a winning streak.

 

Casey McLean

Casey McLean has scored at least one try in six of Penrith's last seven matches against opponents that were ranked lower on the ladder.

 

Paul Alamoti

Paul Alamoti has scored a try in each of his last three appearances at CommBank Stadium.

 

Panthers vs Storm Teams

 

Penrith Panthers Team List

1. Dylan Edwards 

2. Thomas Jenkins

3. Paul Alamoti

4. Casey McLean

5. Brian To'o

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Moses Leota 

9. Freddy Lussick

10. Lindsay Smith 

11. Isaiah Papali'i

12. Liam Martin

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

14. Jack Cogger

15. Billy Phillips

16. Scott Sorensen

17. Luke Garner 

18. Izack Tago

 

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Sua Fa'alogo 

2. Will Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Nick Meaney

5. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant (c)

10. Josh King

11. Joe Chan

12. Alec MacDonald

13. Trent Loiero

14. Tyran Wishart 

15. Davvy Moale

16. Jack Hetherington

17. Cooper Clark

18. Lazarus Vaalepu

 

Panthers vs Storm Match Details

 

Date: Friday, April 3, 2026.

Kick-off: 8:00pm AEDT.

Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney. 

Betting Suspended

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