The minor premier Penrith Panthers will host the Sydney Roosters in a qualifying final at CommBank Stadium on Sunday afternoon. 

Penrith jumped atop the NRL ladder on point differential with a 38-10 win over the Tigers last Sunday, led by a Casey McLean hat-trick. A victory this weekend would send the Panthers through to their seventh consecutive preliminary final. 

Meanwhile, the Roosters have lost three straight since beating the Panthers 12-6 in Round 24. Their 50-20 loss to South Sydney last Friday came after resting a host of players ahead of the finals. 

Isaah Yeo starts for Penrith after returning via the interchange last weekend, while Scott Sorensen is back after a week off. 

The Roosters welcome back James Tedesco, Billy Smith, Hugo Savala, Robert Toia, Mark Nawaqanitawase, Daly Cherry-Evans, Naufahu Whyte, Reece Robson, Lindsay Collins, Nat Butcher and Siua Wong. 

Victor Radley returns from concussion, while Angus Crichton joins the bench after three months sidelined through injury. 

Penrith won the other 2026 meeting between these sides 40-4 all the way back in Round 3. Best of three? Who takes out this tiebreaker?

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights ahead of this Qualifying Final, check out our Panthers vs Roosters tips and predictions below!

Panthers vs Roosters Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

The final game of Week 1 of the NRL Finals sees newly minted Minor Premiers Penrith squaring off with the ragged Roosters in the second Qualifying Final. 

This should have been the game of the weekend, but form and injuries have somewhat spoiled the party, from a Roosters perspective at least.

After being electric for most of the year, a hat-trick of losses to round out the regular season has left everyone seriously questioning their title credentials. 

Speaking of title credentials, when it comes to finals footy, it really is Penrith’s world, with everyone else just living in it. 

Penrith has won each of their last 10 Finals home matches and have scored 21 to 30 points in each of the last three of those matches.

Stats like this show just what a tall order it will be for the Roosters to reverse their recent form and spring an upset here.

An order made all the taller by the absence of star half Sam Walker who is out for the foreseeable future after undergoing surgery on an ankle injury a fortnight ago.

Betting tip: Penrith Panthers. 

First Try Scorer Prediction 

Unsurprisingly, last week's hat-trick hero Casey McLean slides into our bet slips here. He scored the second, last and second last tries of the contest last week and we’re backing him to grab the first here. 

Not only did he grab three last start, but he has also scored at least one try in each of his last three appearances at CommBank Stadium

Betting tip: Casey McLean.

Over/Under Prediction 

Seven of Penrith's last eight matches have gone under the total match points line.

Betting tip: Under 42.5 total match points. 

Line Prediction

Sydney has failed to cover the line in each of their last five Finals Week 1 matches.

Betting tip: Panthers (-9.5) line. 

Panthers vs Roosters Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips 

Daniel Tupou

Daniel Tupou has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances in Sydney.

Brian To'o

Brian To'o has scored at least one try in nine of Penrith's last 10 Finals matches as a favourite in Sydney.

Mark Nawaqanitawase

Mark Nawaqanitawase has scored at least one try in five of his six previous away appearances against teams on a winning streak.

Dylan Edwards

Dylan Edwards has scored at least one try in six of Penrith's last eight matches against Sydney.

Nathan Cleary

Nathan Cleary has scored a try in four of Penrith's last six Finals matches as a favourite in Sydney.

Panthers vs Roosters Teams 

Penrith Panthers Team List 

1. Dylan Edwards

2. Thomas Jenkins

3. Luke Garner

4. Casey McLean

5. Brian To'o

6. Jack Cole

7. Nathan Cleary (c)

8. Moses Leota

9. Mitch Kenny

10. Lindsay Smith

11. Isaiah Papali'i

12. Liam Martin

13. Isaah Yeo

14. Freddy Lussick

15. Scott Sorensen

16. Liam Henry

17. Billy Phillips

18. Blaize Talagi

19. Billy Scott

Sydney Roosters Team List 

1. James Tedesco (c)

2. Daniel Tupou

3. Billy Smith

4. Robert Toia

5. Mark Nawaqanitawase

6. Hugo Savala

7. Daly Cherry-Evans

8. Naufahu Whyte

9. Reece Robson

10. Lindsay Collins

11. Salesi Foketi

12. Siua Wong

13. Victor Radley

14. Connor Watson 

15. Spencer Leniu 

16. Nat Butcher

17. Angus Crichton

18. Cody Ramsay

19. Tommy Talau

Panthers vs Roosters Match Details 

Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026. 

Kick-off: 4:05pm AEST. 

Location: CommBank Stadium, Sydney.