Spring has sprung and aside from a spike in antihistamine sales, that can only mean one thing – it’s finals time! 

After 27 gruelling rounds, the 17 sides that make up the NRL have been trimmed down to just eight. 

While the nine clubs who failed to rack up enough wins to participate in the September spectacle that is finals footy, book flights to Bali, the Panthers, Warriors, Dolphins, Roosters, Sharks, Rabbitohs, Knights and Cowboys will duke it out for Rugby League supremacy.

Week 1 of the 2026 Finals Series will see us say goodbye to two sides, with the Rabbitohs, Knights, Sharks and Cowboy all on the chopping block as they are contesting elimination finals. 

Proceedings aren’t as cut throat for the likes of the Panthers, Roosters, Warriors and Dolphins, who are instead fighting for automatic progression to the final four in their qualifying finals.  

As always, these contrasting dynamics mean that storylines abound for all clubs involved as some fight for survival while others duel for an easier route to the big dance.

The stage is set, the players are ready and the markets are live! The only thing that’s missing is our expert NRL Finals Week 1 tips and predictions, so let’s not waste any more time! 

For all the latest news, analysis, and odds ahead of this week's action, check out our NRL Finals Week 1 tips and predictions below.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Prediction 

Friday, September 11, 7:50pm AEST – Allianz Stadium 

The 2026 NRL Finals get underway on Friday night when the sixth placed South Sydney Rabbitohs host the seventh placed Newcastle Knights in the first of this weekend’s two do-or-die clashes. 

It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish and after an up and down season that saw plenty of sub-par performances, the Bunnies bounce into this Elimination Final riding a wave of momentum and emotion.

They’ve won four out of their last five and have every neutral rooting for them after the way they have supported and championed Jai Arrow during his battle with MND. 

Newcastle on the other hand enter this one off the back of back-to-back losses. They did have the bye last week to get their ducks in a row and have won four of their last five matches against the Rabbitohs. 

However, South Sydney simply have too much going for them at the moment and with the likes of Latrell Mitchell, Cody Walker, David Fifita, Alex Johnston and Cameron Murray all back to full health and top form, we don’t just fancy them in this fixture but we fancy them as a dark horse for the whole thing. 

Head-to-head prediction: South Sydney Rabbitohs. 

Betting tip: SGM – Latrell Mitchell, Alex Johnston and David Fifita anytime try scorers. 

New Zealand Warriors vs The Dolphins Prediction

Saturday, September 12, 4:05pm AEST – Go Media Stadium

There’s no doubt about it; this is the match of the round. Despite lacking some of the big names other teams possess both the Warriors and Dolphins have been two of the standout sides this season. 

Finishing second and third respectively, one of these two will move straight into a preliminary final, but who will that be?

Starting with the Phins, this is their first ever finals series since joining the NRL back in 2023. A remarkable feat, particularly considering they come straight in at third with a second chance, should they lose here. 

If they do lose, it will be the first time in over two months as they have won each of their last seven matches.

On the other side of the field, we have the Wahs. They missed out on only their second ever minor premiership on points differential alone and have won their last six on the spin.

The biggest factor working in their favour, however, is the fact they earned the right to play this match at home and we challenge you to find a team who would choose to travel across the ditch to face New Zealand with everything on the line.

Their last gasp 31-30 win over Manly last week showed how hard they are to beat at home as well as highlighting their next man up mentality. 

As impressive as the dolphins have been this season, this just feels like the Warriors story. While we are tipping them to get it done in front of their own fans, don’t be surprised if golden point is required to settle this one. 

Head-to-head prediction: New Zealand Warriors. 

Betting tip: Warriors to win in golden point. 

Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction

Saturday, September 12, 7:50pm AEST – Allianz Stadium

This Elimination Final between the Sharks and the Cowboys is the antithesis to the Warriors vs Dolphins game. 

Both of these sides enter the Finals well and truly in decline. The Sharks were once considered serious smokeys for the title, even belting the Phins 66-0 at Suncorp a few months back. 

Now they arrive at this do-or-die match with one win in their last five. The Cowboys haven’t been faring much better. They only won two of their last five and enter this one off the back of conceding 50 at home to an 11th placed Raiders side with one eye on Mad Monday.

North Queensland have no problem scoring tries, they’ve scored between 21 and 30 points in each of their last four matches. It’s keeping them out that prevails as the biggest problem for Payton’s side. 

Speaking of prevailing problems, Cronulla has lost each of their last three Finals Week 1 matches as a favourite, which reads like a Stephen King novel for supporters that call the Shire home – pure horror. 

There’s statistical landmines everywhere you look for this one, and despite Cronulla’s historical struggles in the opening week of the finals, we just can’t bring ourselves to back a side who have conceded scores of 82, 50 and 32, in the last month. 

Head-to-head prediction: Cronulla Sharks. 

Betting tip: Over total match points. 

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters Prediction

Sunday, September 13, 4:05pm AEST – CommBank Stadium

The final game of Week 1 of the NRL Finals sees newly minted Minor Premiers Penrith squaring off with the ragged Roosters in the second Qualifying Final. 

This should have been the game of the weekend, but form and injuries have somewhat spoiled the party, from a Roosters perspective at least.

After being electric for most of the year, a hat-trick of losses to round out the regular season has left everyone seriously questioning their title credentials. 

Speaking of title credentials, when it comes to finals footy, it really is Penrith’s world, with everyone else just living in it. 

Penrith has won each of their last 10 Finals home matches and have scored 21 to 30 points in each of the last three of those matches.

Stats like this show just what a tall order it will be for the Roosters to reverse their recent form and spring an upset here.

An order made all the taller by the absence of star half Sam Walker who is out for the foreseeable future after undergoing surgery on an ankle injury a fortnight ago.

Head-to-head prediction: Penrith Panthers. 

Betting tip: Big win little win – Penrith 13+