The Penrith Panthers close out Magic Round against the St. George Illawarra Dragons at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday. 

It will be the Panthers’ first match since the shock news that club legend Ivan Cleary will depart at the end of his contract in 2027. 

Cleary’s men extended their winning streak to four matches with a 30-18 victory over Canberra last week and will start heavily favoured against the winless Dragons. 

Meanwhile, St. George Illawarra enters this clash on a 13-game losing streak after another heavy defeat, a 44-10 drubbing by Newcastle. 

There is just one change for the Panthers with Jack Cogger returning to the bench. Kyle Flanagan starts at halfback following Kade Reed’s finger injury, while Moses Suli, Dan Atkinson, Luciano Leilua and Christian Tuipulotu are all inclusions for the Dragons, with Tuipulotu replacing Mathew Feagai on the wing. Tyrell Sloan has been dropped to the bench.

Penrith has dominated this matchup in recent years, winning eight of the past nine meetings and it will be a minor miracle if they don’t make it nine from 10. 

For the latest news, odds and analysis ahead of the final match of Magic Round, check out our Panthers vs Dragons tips and predictions below.

Panthers vs Dragons Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

NRL Round 11 and 2026’s edition of Magic Round concludes with the best of the best up against the worst of the worst. 

It’s first vs last, as the seemingly unstoppable Penrith Panthers take on a St George side who are officially off to the worst start in the NRL era.

The Dragons this year have conceded 309 points in nine games, including 106 in their last two, and hold a for and against of negative 185. Oh yeah and if you haven’t already guessed, they’ve lost all nine of those games as well. 

Penrith on the other hand sit first, with just one loss to their name. They are a team brimming with confidence and Origin stars and a Dally M Medallist in wait in Nathan Cleary.

This really could be anything, so don’t rule out something crazy like a 60–70-point win for Penrith.

Betting tip: Penrith Panthers. 

First Try Scorer Prediction 

With State of Origin teams set to be announced at the conclusion of Magic Round, this will be Blues’ bolter Casey McLean’s last chance to impress Laurie Daley.

McLean has scored at least one try in each of Penrith's last four matches against opponents that were ranked in the bottom four and we expect him to waste no time here letting Daley know he is ready for the Origin arena. 

Betting tip: Casey McLean.

Over/Under Prediction 

Seven of Penrith's last eight matches at Suncorp Stadium have gone under the total match points line.

Betting tip: Under (57.5) total match points. 

Line Prediction

St. George Illawarra has failed to cover the line in each of its last nine matches against opponents that were ranked higher on the ladder.

Betting tip: Panthers (-28.5) line. 

Panthers vs Dragons Anytime Try Scorer Betting Tips 

Valentine Holmes

Valentine Holmes has scored at least one try in each of his last five appearances against the team that was on top of the ladder.

Dylan Edwards

Dylan Edwards has scored at least one try in each of Penrith's last four matches against teams on a losing streak.

Setu Tu

Setu Tu has scored a try in three of St. George Illawarra's last four matches.

Luke Garner

Luke Garner has scored at least one try in four of his five previous appearances against the team that was on the bottom of the ladder.

Paul Alamoti

Paul Alamoti has scored at least one try in four of his last five appearances against opponents that were ranked in the bottom four.

Blaize Talagi

Blaize Talagi has scored at least one try in three of Penrith's last four matches.

Panthers vs Dragons Teams 

Penrith Panthers Team List 

1. Dylan Edwards  

2. Thomas Jenkins

3. Paul Alamoti 

4. Casey McLean

5. Brian To'o 

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Moses Leota  

9. Freddy Lussick

10. Lindsay Smith  

11. Isaiah Papali'i

12. Luke Garner

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

14. Jack Cogger

15. Scott Sorensen

16. Liam Henry

17. Izack Tago

18. Billy Phillips

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List 

1. Clint Gutherson 

2. Setu Tu

3. Moses Suli

4. Valentine Holmes

5. Christian Tipulotu

6. Daniel Atkinson

7. Kyle Flanagan

8. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga

9. Damien Cook (c)

10. Toby Couchman 

11. Dylan Egan 

12. Hamish Stewart

13. Ryan Couchman

14. Luciano Leilua

15. Emre Guler

16. Josh Kerr

17. Blake Lawrie

18. Tyrell Sloan

Panthers vs Dragons Match Details 

Date: Sunday, May 17, 2026. 

Kick-off: 6:25pm AEST. 

Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.