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Newcastle Knights vs Canberra Raiders Prediction – Round 5 2026

02/04/2026|SB Staff|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips

The Newcastle Knights prepare to host the Canberra Raiders in a game that highlights two teams heading in entirely different directions.

One side looks completely revitalized and ready to cement their status as premiership contenders. The other is desperately searching for answers after a highly disappointing start to their campaign.

The Newcastle Knights have been one of the standout success stories of the early 2026 season. Sitting comfortably at 4th on the NRL ladder, they look like a completely transformed unit under the guidance of new coach Justin Holbrook.

While the Knights are riding a wave of momentum, the Canberra Raiders find themselves in a deep early-season hole.

Sitting way down in 15th position on the ladder, the Raiders have managed just one win from their opening four matches.

Can they stop the rot here against an undermanned Newcastle side? Let’s find out! For the latest news, odds and analysis ahead of this Easter Sunday showdown, check out our Knights vs Raiders tips and predictions below.

 

Knights vs Raiders Prediction and Betting Tips

 

Head-to-Head Prediction

Easter Sunday serves up a sticky situation in terms of tipping, with the under-strength Knights hosting the out of form Raiders.

Speaking of Sticky, the Canberra boss will be less than impressed with his side’s start to the season, particularly after they finished last year as minor premiers.

Just one win so far in 2026 has the Green Machine sitting in 15th. However they are favourites heading into this one, such is the state of Newcastle’s roster.

With both Ponga and Brown sidelined, the injury coerces look set to continue in the Hunter, with Fletcher Sharpe appearing to have re-injured his knee in the closing stages of his side’s win against the Canterbury.

Even at home, surely this many injuries to this many key players will prove too much for the brave Knights to overcome. So, we’re taking Canberra in a close one.

Betting tip: Canberra Raiders.

 

First Try Scorer Prediction

When discussing the Newcastle Knights' attacking threats, you simply cannot ignore Greg Marzhew. The powerhouse winger has become an absolute nightmare for opposition defenses, and he holds a particularly terrifying record against the Canberra Raiders.

The statistics speak for themselves. Marzhew has crossed the try line 6 times in just 7 career games against the Green Machine. He clearly knows how to exploit the specific defensive structures that Canberra utilizes on the edges and as a result is our tip for first try scorer in this one.

Betting tip: Greg Marzhew.

 

Over/Under Prediction

Each of Newcastle's last four home matches have gone over the total match points line.

Betting tip: Over (47.5) total match points.

 

Line Prediction

The away team has covered the line in five of Canberra's last six matches.

Betting tip: Raiders (-4.5) line.

 

Knights vs Raiders Teams

 

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Fletcher Hunt

2. Dominic Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Sandon Smith

8. Jacob Saifiti (c)

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Trey Mooney

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Jermaine McEwen

13. Mat Croker

14. Harrison Graham

15. Tyson Frizell

16. Pasami Saulo

17. Thomas Cant

18. Tyson Gamble

 

Canberra Raiders Team List

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Savielo Tamale

3. Simi Sasagi

4. Sebastian Kris

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Ethan Sanders

8. Josh Papali’i

9. Tom Starling

10. Joe Tapine (c)

11. Hudson Young

12. Noah Martin

13. Corey Horsburgh

14. Jayden Brailey

15. Zac Hosking

16. Ata Mariota

17. Morgan Smithies

18. Chevy Stewart

 

Knights vs Raiders Match Details

 

Date: Sunday, April 5, 2026.

Kick-off: 5:05pm AEDT.

Location: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. 

Betting Suspended

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