The Sydney Roosters and Newcastle Knights are locked in to contest this Sunday’s NRL Grand Final. 

That means for one Novocastrian or Bondi boy, the opportunity to write themselves into Rugby League folklore is also approaching.

One of, if not arguably the most prestigious individual awards in Rugby League, the Clive Churchill Medal is awarded to the best on ground in the Grand Final.

Naturally, such a significant award, in such a significant game, generates a significant amount of interest amongst punters.

For anyone attempting to pick the 2026 Clive Churchill Medal winner, we’re here to help. We’ve hit the stats lab, assessed the odds and looked at previous winners, to try and take some of the guess work out of it.

For starters, no winger, centre or bench player has ever won the Clive Churchill Medal, only three players have ever won the award twice and no one has ever claimed a hat-trick here. Test and Origin experience also counts for plenty here. 

Also, only four men have taken home the Churchill despite their side going down in the big dance. 

With all that in mind, here are our Clive Churchill Medal 2026 Predictions as well as our tip for the eventual winner. 

Who Won the Clive Churchill Medal Last Year?

Reece Walsh

Brisbane Broncos fullback Reece Walsh took home the 2025 Clive Churchill Medal after almost singlehandedly dragging the Broncos to their first premiership in 20 years.

It was one of the most unanimous Churchill wins in recent memory as Walsh set up three tries, scored one of his own, stopped three, ran for over 170 meters and kicked a goal to boot! 

His win continued a well-established trend: fullbacks and halves have now claimed 8 of the last 9 medals, reinforcing just how much value playmaking positions hold when it comes to Grand Final glory.

Clive Churchill Medal 2026 Predictions – The Favourites

Sam Walker 

Sam Walker enters this year's decider as the clear favourite for the Clive Churchill Medal.

The Roosters halfback has been in career-best form throughout 2026, racking up 11 tries, 22 try assists, 22 line-break assists, and 8 line breaks across 22 games. 

He's also picked up man of the match honours in Origin game two, proving he can perform when the stakes are highest. 

If the Roosters go all the way, Walker's fingerprints will likely be all over the win.

Kalyn Ponga 

There’s no question about it; Kalyn Ponga is Newcastle's chief creative spark. Across 18 games this season, he's produced 5 tries, 14 try assists, and 15 line breaks, while averaging a staggering 167 running metres per game and 97 tackle breaks overall. 

Ponga's ability to turn defence into attack in a single play makes him a genuine threat to snatch the Churchill if the Knights can find a way past the Roosters' defence.

Daly Cherry-Evans 

Daly Cherry-Evans brings the kind of big game pedigree that history says matters. Halves have dominated this award, and Cherry-Evans has the game management and composure to control a Grand Final from start to finish. 

His experience under pressure, combined with a consistent record of delivering in big moments, makes him a serious contender if his side controls the contest.

Oh yeah and he’ll also be the only player on the field who has previously won a Clive Churchill Medal. 

Clive Churchill Medal 2026 Predictions – Under the Radar Options 

Fletcher Sharpe 

Fletcher Sharpe isn't the first name on most punters' lips, but Grand Finals have a habit of producing unlikely heroes. 

Able to play nearly anywhere and most importantly score from anywhere, a big performance from Sharpe could see him sneak into medal contention if the front-runners are kept quiet.

Victor Radley 

Victor Radley certainly offers some interesting value. The England international and NSW representative has played 56-plus minutes in seven of his last eight games, making him the most likely forward to go the full 80 minutes if rotation is disrupted by injury. 

A high-impact display through the middle could be enough to catch the judges' eye, particularly if the game turns into an arm-wrestle. Think Sam Burgess circa 2014. 

Dane Gagai 

It’s mildly staggering to see just how slept on Dane Gagai is in the Clive Churchill Market at the moment. 

Yes, a centre has never won before, but Gagai is known for transforming into an unstoppable force the bigger the game is. 

Just look at his contributions so far during this Knights finals run and then of course there are his legendary performances for Queensland in Origin over the years. 

Gagai's finishing ability and big-game experience make him a genuine outside chance. He won't need many opportunities to make an impact, and a couple of well-taken tries and some huge carries out of trouble could be enough to put him in the frame.

Clive Churchill Medal 2026 Winner Prediction 

Daly Cherry-Evans 

Every Clive Churchill Medal winner over the past five years has come from the premiership-winning team, and 37 of the last 40 winners have already played Origin or Test football. 

That history points firmly towards Daly Cherry-Evans, particularly with the Roosters entering the big one as favourites.

His finals experience, composure under pressure, and ability to control the tempo of a Grand Final give him the edge over Walker and Ponga, in our opinion.

He’s already played in two Grand Finals, winning one and as mentioned before, knows what it takes to win the Clive Churchill Medal.

Here’s the crazy thing though. He won the Churchill despite losing the game. That’s right DCE is one of the four men in NRL history who have won this award on the losing side. 

Does that mean it doesn’t matter if the Roosters win or not and that he'll still have what it takes to take home MOTM, regardless of the result? We’ll have to wait and see.

This Sunday’s Grand Final will also be Cherry-Evans final game in the NRL as he is moving to the Super League next season. 

Another premiership and Churchill Medal for the collection would be a fitting end for one of the greatest modern game managers the sport has ever seen. 

*Odds are subject to change. 

Clive Churchill Medal Odds