How can you not be romantic about Rugby League? The scenes of Andrew Johns openly weeping on live television as Sandon Smith scurried away to seal Newcastle’s first Grand Final appearance in a quarter century, were a visceral reminder why they call it the greatest game of all. 

It was a full circle moment for the Novocastrians, as Smith was wearing the No.7 jersey that will be forever tied to Johns and his exploits that led Newcastle to their only two premierships (1997 and 2001) and himself to Rugby League immortality. 

Joey’s tears were only bettered by those of Newcastle captain Kalyn Ponga, who after defending with a man down for nearly a whole half against the most unrelenting team in the competition, collapsed to the turf in a blubbering mess. 

Undoubtedly a mix of exhaustion, relief and pure euphoria, it was clear Ponga and his team mates had left everything on the field, and they stood shoulder to shoulder, stared down the best side in the modern era and simply said “we want this more than you.” 

Their prize for such gallantry now awaits in the form of a place in the 2026 NRL Grand Final and a date with a rejuvenated Roosters side looking to spoil one of the great Australian sporting fairytales. 

Can the Knights get up for one last herculean performance? Or will the Roosters and their selection of superstars see that Newcastle’s dreams are dashed one win shy of fulfilling their unlikely destiny? Let’s find out!

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights ahead of the 2026 NRL Grand Final, check out our Roosters vs Knights tips and predictions below!

NRL Grand Final Prediction and Betting Tips 

Roosters vs Knights Head-to-Head Prediction 

There will be two massive statistical anomalies colliding on Sunday in the Grand Final when the Sydney Roosters play the Newcastle Knights.

These anomalies are better known in the footy world as “curses”. The two curses in question are of course the “50-point” curse and the “outside the top four” curse. 

No side in the modern era has ever won the premiership after conceding 50 or more points in a regular season game. While no side in the modern era has ever won the premiership after finishing the regular season outside of the top four.

One of these curses will be going down the drain come full-time on Sunday, as the Roosters conducted 50 points in their last regular season outing against the Bunnies and the Knights finished in 7th.

That seventh place finish forced Newcastle to take the long way to the big dance, knocking off the Rabbitohs, Warriors and Panthers, all away from home, to book their date with destiny. 

Written off too many times to count, can they muster one more 80 minutes of pure defiance and deliver the Provan Summons Trophy back to the Hunter for the first time since ’01? 

Unfortunately, a number of factors say they cannot. Firstly, a quick look at the H2H odds shows the Roosters are comfortable favourites at the time of writing and it’s not hard to see why. 

They’ve won each of their last six matches against Newcastle and with Sam Walker back in the fold, are essentially at full strength.

The same cannot be said for the Knights, who have spent the second half of the season without their marquee Dylan Brown who also doubles as the most expensive player in NRL history.

While they have managed to make do, they now look set to be without No.9 Phoenix Crossland who will surely be suspended for his horrific hip drop on Panthers’ star Nathan Cleary, which left him with a severely broken ankle.

Crossland was of course sent off for that incident and as a result, the Knights had to play a whole half down a man. That’s a lot of extra miles in the legs, particularly when you consider the Roosters have an extra day’s rest advantage. 

As much as the heart of every self-respecting Rugby League romantic says the Knights, the head can’t help but say something different. 

Betting tip: Sydney Roosters. 

NRL Grand Final First Try Scorer Prediction 

If Newcastle want to win their first premiership in 25 years, stats show they’ll most likely have to come from behind to do so. 

The Roosters have scored the first try in each of their last 11 matches as a favourite and enter this game as favourites they do.

While this is far from guaranteed, a stat line this potent has narrowed our search for a first try scorer tip down to those donning the tricolours on Sunday.

For us, there is one man who has been the standout finisher for the Roosters not just throughout the finals but through the last two seasons. 

That man is of course Mark Nawaqanitawase who continues to conjure four-point miracles from thin air week in and week out.

He will be lost to Rugby Union from next year, so this is last chance to leave his mark in the NRL for now.

After crossing for the first of the match last week in their win over the Dolphins, he’s primed to make sure he makes his marky mark nice and earlier in the big one. 

Betting tip: Mark Nawaqanitawase.

NRL Grand Final Over/Under Prediction 

Each of Newcastle's last four Finals matches have gone under the total match points line.

Betting tip: Under 41.5 total match points.

NRL Grand Final Line Prediction

Sydney has failed to cover the line in each of their last nine matches as a favourite at Accor Stadium.

Betting tip: Knights (+6.5) line. 

NRL Grand Final Predicted Teams 

Sydney Rooster Predicted Team List 

1. James Tedesco (c)

2. Daniel Tupou

3. Billy Smith

4. Robert Toia

5. Mark Nawaqanitawase

6. Sam Walker

7. Daly Cherry-Evans

8. Naufahu Whyte

9. Reece Robson

10. Lindsay Collins

11. Salesi Foketi

12. Siua Wong

13. Victor Radley

14. Connor Watson

15. Angus Crichton

16. Nat Butcher

17. Spencer Leniu 

18. Hugo Savala

19. Cody Ramsay

Newcastle Knights Predicted Team List 

1. Kalyn Ponga (c)

2. Dom Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Sandon Smith

8. Tyson Frizell

9. Harrison Graham 

10. Cody Hopwood

11. Jermaine McEwen

12. Francis Manuleleua

13. Mat Croker

14. Harrison Graham

15. Lachlan Crouch

16. Pasami Saulo

17. Dylan Lucas

18. Fletcher Hunt

19. Thomas Cant 

NRL Grand Final Details 

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026. 

Kick-off: 6:30pm AEST. 

Location: Accor Stadium, Sydney. 

*Odds are subject to change.