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Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers Prediction – Preliminary Final 2025

24/09/2025|Joel Caine|NRL Expert Predictions & Tips
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<p>Almost 48 hours after the first 2025 Grand Final spot has been decided, the Brisbane Broncos will host the Penrith Panthers at Suncorp Stadium on Sunday afternoon, looking to clinch the second.</p> <p>The timeslot has sparked controversy regarding the extra rest provided to the winner of Friday night’s match. It makes the Panthers’ chase for a historic fifth straight premiership all the more challenging, but equally astonishing should they pull it off.</p> <p>The Broncos enjoyed a week off after their remarkable golden point win in Canberra, while the Panthers have been clinical during victories over the Warriors and Bulldogs to extend their incredible finals winning streak to 14.</p> <p>Penrith will head in unchanged. For the Broncos, Adam Reynolds returns from his five-game absence and is joined in the halves by Ben Hunt, who moves back to five-eighth for the injured Billy Walters.</p> <p>The suspended Pat Carrigan is replaced by Tyson Smoothy and Ezra Mam joins the bench in a massive in for Michael Maguire’s men.</p> <p>Check out our Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers match preview for plenty of betting tips and predictions across a host of markets. From H2H to anytime try scorer and everything in between.&nbsp;</p> <p>Looking for all the latest news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of this Preliminary Final? Check out our Broncos vs Panthers prediction below.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Broncos vs Panthers Prediction and Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Head-to-Head Prediction</h3> <p>This weekend’s second NRL Preliminary Final, sees <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/predictions/broncos-finals-preview-2025">Brisbane</a> and <a href="https://www.sportsbet.com.au/huddle/nrl/predictions/panthers-finals-preview-2025">Penrith</a> take to Suncorp Stadium in a repeat of the 2023 decider.</p> <p>Everyone remembers how that played out and no doubt the Broncos will be champing at the bit to get one over the current NRL champs.</p> <p>The dynamic heading into this clash is a truly unique one, as both sides were first expected to be here, then they weren’t, now they are.</p> <p>Naturally, being the reigning back-to-back-to-back-to-back champions Penrith started the season as Premiership favourites, only for things to take a sharp turn south. Inexplicably, the men from the foot of the mountains found themselves at the foot of the table after 10 rounds.</p> <p>Of course, as soon as everyone systematically ruled them out of any final’s participation, they went on an almighty winning streak, led by who else, but Nathan Cleary and almost made the top four.</p> <p>In the end they had to settle for seventh, but being able to call on the experience of four consecutively successful finals series placed them in perfect stead to see off the Warriors and Bulldogs to book this battle with the Broncos.</p> <p>Speaking of Brisbane, despite a disappointing campaign in 2024, the arrival of a new coach in premiership winner Michael Maguire and former favourite son Ben Hunt had punters scrambling to load in on the new look Broncos.</p> <p>This appeared to be a smart investment after their round 1 dismantling of the Roosters on the road, kicking off their campaign by scoring 50 points.</p> <p>However, like their opponents this Sunday, the wheels quickly fell off, everyone jumped off the bandwagon and then the revival began.</p> <p>A highly productive final month and half of the season saw the Broncos sneak into the top four, allowing them to produce what will long be remembered as the greatest heist in NRL Finals history against the unsuspecting Raiders a fortnight ago.</p> <p>So that’s how both sides got here, but what kind of shape do they find themselves in now? Well for the Panthers, they have won their last three games, and their only injury concern is Liam Martin, who is currently being monitored for a rib injury.</p> <p>Brisbane enter this one on the back of a week off and a five-match winning streak. They also get the luxury of playing at home and are set to welcome back skipper Adam Reynolds.</p> <p>That’s the good news. The bad news is unlikely hero Billy Walters is gone for the season and then some after injuring his ACL, with a lot of Brisbane’s recent success down to his combination in the halves with Hunt.</p> <p>Inspiration forward Patty Carrigan is also suspended and there’s no sign of Ezra Mam either.</p> <p>The biggest thing working against Michael Maguire’s men here, however, is simply their recent record against the Panthers. Of their last five matches against Penrith, Brisbane have lost every single one of them.</p> <p>That being said, they weren’t supposed to beat the Storm and make the top four and at 28-10 down against the Raiders with 15 to play, they sure as hell weren’t supposed to win that one.</p> <p>Their season was meant to be over back in round 23 when Reynolds and Mam, their starting halves, both went down in the same play. Since Hunt and Walters replaced them, they haven’t lost.</p> <p>Yes, Walters won’t play here, but this story has always been about the man they call Dozer.</p> <p>It’s exactly 10 years since his infamous golden point blunder which cost Brisbane the 2015 premiership and we are currently in the midst of witnessing the greatest redemption arc in NRL history.</p> <p>It was Hunt who slotted the outrageous 40m field goal in the 15th minute of overtime to get Brisbane this home Prelim, and he’s steered the ship without fault since Reynolds got injured.</p> <p>He’s got a date with destiny in the game that comes after this one and we reckon he’ll be damned if he’s going to let the Panthers stand in his way, regardless how many premiership rings currently cover their fingers.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Brisbane Broncos.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>First Tryscorer Prediction</h3> <p>Brisbane’s finals charge has been predominately headlined by one man – Reece Walsh. One minute he was drinking out of a toilet, the next he was dropping back-to-back masterclasses to ensure his side booked a place in the Prelims.</p> <p>He hasn’t just been kicking goals and 40/20s either, Walsh has scored at least one try in each of Brisbane's last five matches and is our tip for first tryscorer here.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip</strong>: Reece Walsh.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Over/Under Prediction</h3> <p>Each of the last seven matches between Brisbane and Penrith at Suncorp Stadium have gone under the total match points line.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip:</strong> Under total match points (49.5).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Line Prediction</h3> <p>Penrith has covered the line in each of its last five away matches following an away win.</p> <p><strong>Betting tip: </strong>Panthers (-3.5).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Broncos vs Panthers Anytime Tryscorer Betting Tips</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Brian To'o</h3> <p>Brian To'o has scored at least one try in nine of Penrith's last 10 finals matches as a favourite.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Josiah Karapani</h3> <p>Josiah Karapani has scored a try in each of Brisbane's last five matches.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Casey McLean</h3> <p>Casey McLean has scored at least one try in each of Penrith's last five matches outside of Sydney.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Isaiah Papali'i&nbsp;</h3> <p>Isaiah Papali'i has scored a try in each of his last four away appearances.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Paul Alamoti</h3> <p>Paul Alamoti has scored at least one try in six of his last seven appearances.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Nathan Cleary</h3> <p>Nathan Cleary has scored a try in four of his last five appearances against Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Broncos vs Panthers Teams</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Brisbane Broncos Team List</h3> <p>1. Reece Walsh</p> <p>2. Josiah Karapani</p> <p>3. Kotoni Staggs</p> <p>4. Gehamat Shibasaki</p> <p>5. Deine Mariner</p> <p>6. Ben Hunt</p> <p>7. Adam Reynolds</p> <p>8. Corey Jensen</p> <p>9. Cory Paix</p> <p>10. Payne Haas</p> <p>11. Brendan Piakura</p> <p>12. Jordan Riki</p> <p>13. Tyson Smoothy</p> <p>14. Ezra Mam</p> <p>15. Kobe Hetherington</p> <p>16. Xavier Willison</p> <p>17. Ben Talty</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3>Penrith Panthers Team List</h3> <p>1. Dylan Edwards</p> <p>2. Paul Alamoti</p> <p>3. Izack Tago</p> <p>4. Casey McLean</p> <p>5. Brian To'o&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>6. Blaize Talagi</p> <p>7. Nathan Cleary&nbsp;</p> <p>8. Moses Leota</p> <p>9. Mitch Kenny</p> <p>10. Lindsay Smith</p> <p>11. Scott Sorensen</p> <p>12. Liam Martin</p> <p>13. Isaah Yeo</p> <p>14. Brad Schneider</p> <p>15. Liam Henry&nbsp;</p> <p>16. Isaiah Papali'i</p> <p>17. Luke Garner</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2>Broncos vs Panthers Match Details</h2> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Date: </strong>Sunday, September 28, 2025.</p> <p><strong>Kick-off: </strong>4:05pm AEST.</p> <p><strong>Location: </strong>Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane.&nbsp;</p>

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