Australia vs Samoa Prediction – Rugby League World Cup 2026

The second Rugby League World Cup Semi Finals pits the all-conquering Kangaroos against the might of Samoa at Allianz Stadium on Sunday night. 

Ready for a serious stat? Australia have only failed to qualify for the Rugby League World Cup Final once. 

That was all the way back in 1954, the first year the tournament was ever held. Since then, the Kangaroos have made 15 straight appearances in International Rugby League’s big dance, winning all but three of them. 

For Samoa they are the latest side outside of Australia to appear in a World Cup Final, qualifying for the big one in 2021, only to lose 30-10 to who else? The Kangaroos. 

They’ll be out to extract a measure of revenge for that defeat at Old Trafford half a decade ago this Sunday, as well as aiming to qualify for a second straight World Cup Final. Can they do it?

For the latest team news, analysis, odds, and betting tips ahead of this Rugby League World Cup Semi Final, check out our Australia vs Samoa tips and predictions below.

Australia vs Samoa Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

Australia cruised past Cook Islands 66-6 in a scoreline the devil would be proud of. Reece Walsh continued his sensational form by claiming back-to-back player of the match awards, showing why Kevin Walters opted to pick him ahead of James Tedesco.

That kind of individual brilliance is exactly what can break open a tight semi-final, and Walsh looks to be peaking at the perfect time. 

However, Australia aren't without their concerns. Mitchell Moses is still out for the remainder of the tournament after suffering a torn muscle, a significant loss given his experience at this level, and Cameron Murray is managing a calf issue that will be closely monitored in the lead-up to kick-off.

Samoa, by contrast, will be nursing both physical and emotional wounds. Their narrow 20-18 loss to Tonga was heartbreaking, and star half Chanel Harris-Tavita picked up a hamstring injury in that match, leaving his availability for the semi-final in doubt. 

Losing a player of his creative influence would be a major blow against an Australian defence that rarely offers second chances.

This clash is also a rematch of the 2022 World Cup final, where Australia won comfortably, 30-10. 

That history, combined with Australia's superior depth points towards another dominant Australian performance.

Samoa will need something special from their stars to spring an upset, but they have shown they are certainly capable, as this is easily the best squad they have ever assembled. 

Look to Luai, the Hammer, To’o and Volkman to push the Aussies all the way in Rugby League World Cup all-timer.

Betting tip: Australia. 

First Try Scorer Prediction 

Man of the moment Reece Walsh has seemingly put a turbulent season with the Broncos behind him and shown everyone exactly why Kevin Walters picked him in his squad.

While he only ran in one try in the Kangaroos rout of the Cook Islands last week, he was in absolutely every once again for the Green and Gold. 

When the stakes go up, so does his output apparently and the stakes don’t get much higher than this. Look to Reece Lightning to get over in a flash for the first four pointer of this World Cup Semi Final. 

Betting tip: Reece Walsh. 

Over/Under Prediction 

With a total match points line of 39.5 points here, it appears there are expectations that Australia will not run away with this one.

They ran up a score in their last game that bettered that total on their own and were 3.5 points off doing so the game before.

Obviously, this Samoan side is far stronger than the Cook Islands and Fiji, so on the other side of that sword, they should be able to contribute more meaningfully to the scoreboard than either of those nations as well.

We can see this one bubbling over the 39.5 point threshold by at least a couple of tries. 

Betting tip: Over 39.5 total match points. 

Line Prediction

Can Australia get the better of their 10.5 point handicap here? They did the last time these two sides met at a World Cup (the 2021 Final) running out 20 point victors.

A lot has changed in the last five years, particularly for this Samoan side who are now stacked with certified superstars. 

While they might not have strengthened enough to topple their Aussies counterparts outright, they are certainly good enough to have closed the gap within 10 and a half points. 

Betting tip: Samoa (+7.5) line.

Australia vs Samoa Teams 

Australia Team List 

1. Reece Walsh

2. Jack Bostock

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Bradman Best

5. Tom Trbojevic

6. Cameron Munster

7. Tom Dearden

8. Patrick Carrigan

9. Harry Grant

10. Tino Fa'asaumaleaui

11. Jacob Preston

12. Liam Martin

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

14. Ethan Strange

15. Keaon Koloamatangi 

16. Cameron Murray

17. Reuben Cotter

18. Latrell Mitchell

19. James Tedesco

Samoa Team List

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

2. Brian To’o

3. Izack Tago

4. Stephen Crichton

5. Sualauvi Fa’alogo

6. Ronald Volkman

7. Jarome Luai (c)

8. Francis Molo

9. Benaiah Ioelu

10. Junior Paulo

11. Connelly Lemuelu

12. Jermaine McEwen

13. Francis Manuleleua

14. Jazz Tevaga

15. Spencer Leniu

16. Shawn Blore

17. Ata Mariota

18. Clayton Faulalo

19. Deine Mariner

Australia vs Samoa Match Details 

Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026. 

Kick-off: 8:05pm AEDT.

Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney. 

*Odds are subject to change.