Australia vs New Zealand Prediction – Rugby League World Cup 2026

If the old adage of “start as you mean to go” rings true, then this is going to be one hell of a Rugby League World Cup because curtain-raisers don’t come much bigger than this. 

Australia, 12-time champions, host their trans-Tasman rivals New Zealand in front of what should be a sold-out Allianz Stadium crowd. 

If the outright odds for the 2026 RLWC are to be believed, this could very well be a preview of the final, so whoever wins here will surely be installed as competition favourites. 

With the defections of Ponga and Gagai, the fullback selection battle between Walsh and Tedesco and the absence of Nathan Cleary, there are plot lines aplenty to be explored here. 

That’s why we're here with our comprehensive Australia vs New Zealand preview, which includes a sneak peak at who should be lining up for both nations come Thursday night.

For the latest team news, analysis, and expert insights ahead of this 2026 Rugby League World Cup opener, check out our Australia vs New Zealand tips and predictions below!

Australia vs New Zealand Prediction and Betting Tips 

Head-to-Head Prediction 

The Kangaroos will be without Nathan Cleary, while captain Isaah Yeo carries the leadership burden despite a ruptured pectoral. 

Latrell Mitchell returns to the Kangaroos fold for the first time since the 2022 final, adding genuine x-factor out wide, while James Tedesco and Reece Walsh continue their battle for the No.1 jersey.

Sam Walker and Cameron Munster round out a halves mix that looks dangerous on paper, even without Cleary pulling the strings.

New Zealand meanwhile, arrive more settled and with real credibility, having claimed the 2025 Pacific Championships. 

Captain James Fisher-Harris remains the Kiwis' defensive cornerstone, and the return of Jahrome Hughes gives their attack genuine direction. Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai bring fresh faces and serious form into the mix off the back of the Knights run to the GF, though Phoenix Crossland's suspension for the entire pool stage is a blow to their spine.

In terms of a result here, it’s hard to go past the hosts. Despite missing Cleary, the sheer depth in the Kangaroos' roster, particularly with the mercurial Mitchell back in camp, should be enough to overcome a Kiwi side that more often than not runs second best to the green and gold. 

Betting tip: Australia. 

First Try Scorer Prediction 

A quick look at the scorecard the last time these two nations met, and you’ll discover there is guaranteed to be a new first try scorer on Thursday night.

It was barnstorming front rower Lindsay Collins who opened the scoring believe it or not, but he’ll play no part in this game or the World Cup in general for that matter, after withdrawing from the Kangaroos squad with injury.

That leaves us searching for a new first try scorer and despite both sides full of four-point professionals, our sights are set firmly on one man.

Returning to the Green and Gold fold for the first time since the 2022 World Cup Final, Rabbitohs renegade Latrell Mitchell looks set to make a statement at this tournament. 

After returning from injury towards the end of the year, he finished the season strongly for South Sydney and he certainly loves putting on a show in the big games. 

A World Cup opener against your fiercest rivals is nearly as big as it gets in our books, so keep an eye out for Mitchell and his try scoring exploits early in this one. 

Betting tip: Latrell Mitchell.

Over/Under Prediction 

Two teams brimming with the game’s best attacking talent and no elimination pressure since it’s the first game of the first round of matches? According to our forecast a try scoring storm is brewing here. 

With the likes of Kalyn Ponga, Reece Walsh, Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster, Dane Gagai and Latrell Mitchell set to trade scoreboard blows in this one, we can’t help but feel the over/under line of 38.5 total match points will be significantly eclipsed on Thursday night. 

Betting tip: Over 38.5 total match points. 

Line Prediction

Such is the quality of both sides; there is a razor thin line of 2.5 points currently separating these two nations.

While we haven’t tipped the Kiwis ourselves, they are certainly capable of not just winning here, but also covering the 2.5 point spread as they did in the second to last meeting between these two nations when they won 30-0. 

Betting tip: New Zealand (+2.5) line. 

Australia vs New Zealand Predicted Teams 

Kangaroos Predicted Team List 

1. Reece Walsh

2. Tom Trbojevic

3. Latrell Mitchell

4. Kotoni Staggs

5. Jack Bostock

6. Cameron Munster

7. Mitchell Moses

8. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui

9. Harry Grant

10. Pat Carrigan

11. Liam Martin

12. Jacob Preston

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

14. Cameron Murray

15. Keaon Koloamatangi

16. Lindsay Smith

17. Bradman Best

18. James Tedesco

19. Sam Walker

Kiwis Predicted Team List 

1. Kalyn Ponga

2. Jamayne Isaako

3. Dane Gagai

4. Casey McLean

5. Ronaldo Mulitalo

6. Kodi Nikorima

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. James Fisher-Harris (c)

9. Jeremy Marshall-King

10. Naufahu Whyte

11. Isaiah Papali'i

12. Briton Nikora

13. Erin Clark

14. Joseph Tapine

15. Moses Leota

16. Scott Sorensen

17. Xavier Willison

18. Keano Kini

19. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

Australia vs New Zealand Match Details 

Date: Thursday, October 15, 2026. 

Kick-off: 8:05pm AEDT. 

Location: Allianz Stadium, Sydney.