Rugby League World Cup Tips and Predictions - Round 1

The 2026 Rugby League World Cup kicks off Down Under later this month, and it looks set to be one of the most competitive editions ever.

Australia enter as hosts and firm favourites, but with some star names missing through injury and others defecting to opposing teams, other nations such as New Zealand, Samoa, Tonga and England may smell blood in the water.

Round 1 of the RLWC will give punters the first look at all 10 teams, with all eyes on the tournament curtain raiser between Australia and New Zealand. 

There’s also a bumper clash between England and 2022 finalists Samoa as well as plenty of other entertaining matchups to take in.

For all the latest news, analysis, and odds ahead of the opening round of the 2026 RLWC, check out our Rugby League World Cup Round 1 tips and predictions below.

Australia vs New Zealand Prediction 

Thursday, October 15, 8:05pm AEDT – Allianz Stadium 

If the old adage of “start as you mean to go” rings true, then this is going to be one hell of a World Cup because curtain-raisers don’t come much bigger than this. 

Australia, 12-time champions, host their trans-Tasman rivals in front of what should be a sold-out Allianz Stadium crowd. 

The Kangaroos will be without Nathan Cleary, while captain Isaah Yeo carries the leadership burden despite a ruptured pectoral. 

Latrell Mitchell returns to the Kangaroos fold for the first time since the 2022 final, adding genuine x-factor out wide, while James Tedesco and Reece Walsh continue their battle for the No.1 jersey.

Sam Walker and Cameron Munster round out a halves mix that looks dangerous on paper, even without Cleary pulling the strings.

New Zealand meanwhile, arrive more settled and with real credibility, having claimed the 2025 Pacific Championships. 

Captain James Fisher-Harris remains the Kiwis' defensive cornerstone, and the return of Jahrome Hughes gives their attack genuine direction. Kalyn Ponga and Dane Gagai bring fresh faces and serious form into the mix off the back of the Knights run to the GF, though Phoenix Crossland's suspension for the entire pool stage is a blow to their spine.

In terms of a result here, it’s hard to go past the hosts. Despite missing Cleary, the sheer depth in the Kangaroos' roster, particularly with the mercurial Mitchell back in camp, should be enough to overcome a Kiwi side that more often than not run second best to the green and gold. 

Head-to-head prediction: Australia. 

Betting tip: Latrell Mitchell first try scorer. 

Samoa vs France Prediction

Friday, October 16, 5:45pm AEDT – CommBank Stadium

Samoa head into this tournament as genuine dark horses, thanks in large to their NRL-heavy spine. 

Former Penrith premiership stars Jarome Luai and Stephen Crichton lead the halves and centre stocks respectively, while Spencer Leniu and Brian To'o provide power and speed through the middle and edges. 

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at fullback adds further attacking threat, and the inclusion of Francis Manuleleua and Jermaine McEwen, both fresh off Newcastle's grand final campaign, gives Samoa added sharpness heading into the tournament.

France, by contrast, will be looking to spring an upset against a side many expect to challenge for the title. 

Group C also includes Papua New Guinea, meaning France's path to the semi-finals likely runs through strong performances against both the Samoans and PNG.

Samoa should win comfortably, they made the final in the last World Cup after all. The gap in NRL experience between the two squads is significant, and Samoa's attacking talent should prove too much for France to contain.

Head-to-head prediction: Samoa. 

Betting tip: Stephen Crichton first try scorer. 

Papua New Guinea vs Lebanon Prediction

Saturday, October 17, 3:25pm AEDT – Santos National Football Stadium

This RLWC Round 1 clash pits two passionate rugby league nations against one another, both aiming to establish early momentum in the pool. 

Papua New Guinea have long been known for their physicality and local fan support, and they'll fancy their chances of a strong showing on home soil in an atmosphere that typically lifts their performance.

Lebanon have shown steady improvement in recent years, with a squad featuring a mix of NRL-experienced players and emerging talent. However long gone are the days when the likes of Mitchell Moses pulled the strings at No.7 for the Cedars. 

Matching PNG's intensity in these conditions is no easy task, particularly with the crowd firmly behind the home nation.

Home advantage and the sheer energy PNG bring to international fixtures should give them the edge in what's likely to be a tightly fought contest.

Head-to-head prediction: Papua New Guinea.

Betting tip: Under total match points. 

England vs Tonga Prediction

Saturday, October 17, 8:05pm AEDT – HBF Park

Outside of Australia vs New Zealand, this is easily the most anticipated fixture from Round 1 of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup.

England take on a Tongan side on Saturday October 17, with both sides packed with NRL firepower. 

English captain George Williams carries a slight fitness question into the match, but England's NRL contingent, including Victor Radley, Hugo Savala, Dom Young and Herbie Farnworth, gives them real class across the park. 

New faces Max King and Ben Talty add further depth to a squad with plenty of promise.

Tonga's forward pack, though, is arguably the most fearsome in the tournament. Jason Taumalolo, Addin Fonua-Blake, Haumole Olakau'atu, Stefano Utoikamanu and Tyson Frizell (who becomes just the latest in a short list of players to represent a third nation at a third World Cup) form one of the most formidable engine rooms ever assembled. 

Add in Isaiya Katoa's elite game management at halfback, plus Rob Toia and Jojo Fifita's decision to represent Tonga over Australia, and this is a side brimming with both talent and a point to prove.

With the World Cup’s new inter-group format, England and Tonga sit in Group B, and neither side will face Samoa or Lebanon during pool play, making this clash even more pivotal in the race for a top-two finish.

England usually always go the distance, but Tonga are simply too stacked for us to ignore. 

Their forward pack alone should prove the difference, with Taumalolo and company laying a platform that Katoa can exploit against an England side who find themselves a long, long way away from home. 

Head-to-head prediction: Tonga. 

Betting tip: Jojo Fifita first try scorer. 

Fiji vs Cook Islands Prediction

Sunday, October 18, 4:05pm AEDT – McDonald Jones Stadium

Rounding out the opening set of games of the 2026 Rugby League World Cup, is this clash between Fiji and the Cook Islands, in what should be an entertaining clash of attacking styles. 

Fiji's squad includes the experienced Apisai Koroisau, whose game management and know-how around the ruck could prove crucial in tight moments.

The Cook Islands, captained by Sharks’ star KL Iro, boast a genuine marquee name in Valentine Holmes, whose finishing ability and attacking instincts make him one of the most dangerous outside backs in the tournament. 

Their challenge will be matching Fiji's forward intensity over the full 80 minutes.

Koroisau's experience and Fiji's overall squad depth should give them the edge, though the Cook Islands' attacking flair makes this far from a foregone conclusion, particularly with Holmes sniffing around. 

Head-to-head prediction: Fiji. 

Betting tip: Valentine Holmes anytime try scorer.